武汉凡谷（002194）：机构关注复合性优势

　　3G牌照已经发放，整个电信产业链都将迎来新的增长机会。从3G对整个产业链的促进次序来看，最先得益的是为基站建设提供设备器件的厂商，武汉凡谷作为国内最大的射频器件厂商，无疑是最大的得益者之一。除3G外，全球通讯设备产业链向中国的转移也为该行业持续稳定增长奠定了基础。显然，作为行业中具有明显竞争优势的企业，武汉凡谷后几年的成长空间是显而易见的。优良的业绩、不俗的成长性、目前相对低估的估值、3G行业的发展前景等诸多的复合性优势，使得机构投资者对该公司关注的力度在逐日增强。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                 

                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         (元)
08年	09年	10年
国金证券	2009/02/25	买入	09 年收入超预期的因素主要自于华为在海外市场的增长、诺西和爱立信的海外订单转移。 09年有色金属如铝、铜和银价较08 年出现明显回落，凡谷双工器成本下降空间约为23%，射频子系统降价空间约为16%，如果考虑到09年生产规模带来边际成本递减的因素，综合成本下降空间更大；09 年公司业务战略主要采纳追求订单效益和质量，同时兼顾供应商战略合作伙伴关系的维系，产品价格下降有限。	0.77	1.00	1.33	23.66
光大证券	2008/02/25	买入	收入增速高达 36.52%，一方面体现公司下游的主设备厂商需求进一步增长，另一方面也表明公司的产品竞争力进一步得到越来越多主设备厂商的认可。武汉凡谷作为国内最大的射频器件厂商，竞争优势明显，将持续受益于国内3G 大规模建设和全球产业链向国内转移，再加上自身管理、营运效率上的不断改进，未来几年业绩将稳定增长在通信行业目前市盈率普遍25 倍以上的情况下，估值优势明显。再加上公司经营稳健，现金流、资产负债率等各项财务指标良好，公司应该至少享受行业普遍市盈率水平。	0.77	0.93	1.12	23.25
中金公司	2008/02/26	审慎推荐	由于电信重组和3G 发牌带动电信投资的恢复性增长，运营商对基站投资力度加大，基站射频器。件需求快速增长，部分厂商甚至出现自供产能不足的情况，因此武汉凡谷业务量从08 年4 季度起迅速提升，并有望随着运营商对网络的持续扩容，09 年仍维持较高的订单和产量的增长。	0.77	0.98	1.17	-----
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.77	0.97	1.207	23.46
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	24.14	19.16	15.40
风 险 提 示
（1）海外市场电信投资持续疲弱；（2）原材料价格波动对公司利润有影响。