宏图高科（600122）：进入内外延共成长的轨道

　　宏图高科在年初通过定向增发方式把宏图三胞的所有资产纳入门下，从而宣告又一个“小苏宁”的诞生，也确定公司进入新的外延与内生增长并存的成长轨道。尽管有少数机构投资者对公司未来的成长前景还心存疑虑，略有分歧，但相比同业公司，公司的市值仍然很小，这决定了公司股票未来长期增长的方向。这是大多数机构投资者高度看好的因素所在。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                 

                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值(元)
2009	2010	2011
中信证券	03/23	买入	年初收购北京和浙江宏图三胞后，门店数量翻倍，规模扩张后公司上游采购、管理和售后服务都将产生规模经济效应，因此即便在经济低迷时内生性增长率不高的情况下，业绩也将获得大幅提升。	0.62	0.88	1.08	15.50
东方证券	03/23	买入	2009年公司预计将新增40余家门店，同比增加22%；考虑到老店有8-10%左右的同比增长，预计2009年整体IT连锁业务收入增长27%左右,达到127亿元；房地产业务和华泰股权可能带来的收益目前不确定因素较多，暂时难以作出精确预测，但保守估计上水园项目如能实现结算，将贡献0.2 元以上的EPS。	0.53	0.72	——	15.00
申银万国	03/23	增持	截至2008 年底，宏图三胞IT连锁共拥有门店约176家，覆盖华北、华东、华南、华中、西南等18个省。鉴于公司非公开增发已完成，因此新开门店盈利将在2009年充分体现。预计未来2009-2011年，宏图三胞计划新开门店40家、60 家、50家，逐步深入二级城市，从而完善全国的连锁网络布局。	0.63	0.78	0.94	——
中投证券	03/23	强烈推荐	2009 年公司计划新开门店40-50 家，并全面改善门店经营质量，继续调整产品结构，加大新品的引进力度，提高采销计划管理能力，降控各项费用，全面提高门店盈利能力；同时公司继续推进连锁拓展规划，实现外延式增长。房地产业务今年公司的宏图上水园一期项目预计下半年进入收获期，其它光电线缆等业务随着基础设施投资加速，预计保持平稳增长。	0.99	1.49	2.23	18.10
国泰君安	03/24	中性	公司目前的主要竞争对手是国内各大数码商城和II 数码专卖店，随着人们对一站式采购的认同度不断提升，苏宁、国美、BESTBUY 逐渐成为公司主要竞争对手，从而电子商贸行业的毛利率有不断下降的趋势；公司于1月份收购了宏图三胞、北京宏三、浙江宏三的部分股权。本次收购后，公司对宏图三胞持股比例提升至100%，预计增加2009年EPS0.1元；华泰证券稳定分红也为公司业绩提供了安全保障。	0.38	0.46	0.64	10.08
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.63	0.866	1.223	14.67
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	17.93	13.05	9.24
风险提示
个体户“劣币驱逐良币”非法经营会冲击公司正当经营盈利水平；公司扩张中面临人才不足的风险。