合肥百货（000417）：稳健增长的区域龙头

　　经济刺激的政策基调与举措在不断向消费倾斜，行情整体水平上移后投资者对安全边际的要求也日益提升，在这两大综合因素的作用下，商业股的防御性优势、后续政策概念的优势、之前滞涨的优势已逐渐体现出来，机构投资者对此已经开始加大关注力度。在商业类公司中，类似合肥百货这样既具备显著成长性，目前又具有估值比较优势，还是区域性行业龙头的公司自然更是机构投资者一致看好的标的。因而，行情表现已经存在超预期的可能。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值(元)
09年	10年	11年
海通证券	2009/04/16	增持	08年公司净利润率达到3.74%，同比增加了0.18个百分点；归属于公司股东的净利润同比增加20.14%；扣除非经常性损益的净利润1.17 亿元，同比增长34.46%，公司子公司大部分利润增幅显著。安徽区域整体经济环境好于其他东部和南部区域，公司在安徽零售行业中的优势地位非常明显。	0.45	0.56	----	11.90
中金公司	2009/04/16	推荐	一季度业绩预增60%，经营性净利润增速18%左右。预计公司2009-2010年受益于老门店的小幅增长以及新门店扭亏，净利润仍有望获得25%左右的增长。公司外延式扩张也卓有成效，已为未来业绩增长打下了良好的基础。	0.43	0.53	----	-----
平安证券	2009/04/16	推荐	在内需趋于增强的经济增长结构中，产业转移的继续和新兴产业的快速发展，带来本地居民就业和收入水平的实质性提高，并带动未来的消费升级。合肥百货作为安徽商业龙头，不仅可充分分享区域经济快速发展的成果，并且公司自身的规模竞争优势、业务发展结构优化以及经营管理效率的持续改善，可推动其持续的规模扩张和利润率提升，公司业绩兼具短期良好的防御性和长期增长潜力。	0.44	0.61	0.73	11.00
世纪证券	2009/04/16	增持	公司09年1季度业绩同比增长约60%；主要原因是经营质量提升带来主营业务利润增长，以及公司持有股票（青岛海尔115.58 万股）价格上涨，交易性金融资产的公允价值变动使净利润同比增加864.25万元。	0.43	0.54	----	-----
渤海证券	2009/04/16	中性	扣除非经常性损益后，母公司净利润同比增长34.46%。经营活动产生的现金流同比增加72%。显示公司主业的盈利能力依然较强。以后各季的经营情况应越来越乐观。我们认为公司是很好的防御性品种。	0.42	0.57	----	-----
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.434	0.562	0.73	11.45
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	23.50	18.15	13.97
风 险 提 示
（1）经济进一步恶化带来的消费市场不景气；（2）可比门店增速大幅放缓，新开门店的亏损压力。