商业股正在成为目前机构投资者关注的重点，其理由有三：一是因为新的通胀预期在形成，二是因为有关于刺激消费为主的政策预期在增强，三是因为之前持续滞涨带来的良好防御性。武汉中百以其较好的成长性，更因在当地有着很强的垄断性竞争力，以及大卖场与便利超市在经济衰退中更具优势的产业属性而得到诸多机构投资者的关注。

　　公司股价自去年12月份以来一直未有表现，也使得该股现阶段的防御性优势更为突出。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值(元)
09年	10年	11年
东方证券	2009/04/15	增持	公司已经在区域内构建了非常密集、层级合理的门店网络，已经成为湖北区域内最主流的购物渠道之一，外资超市等竞争对手尚难形成明显威胁，因而公司零售业务的毛利率有望得到保护，而其它上市超市企业尚未达到这样强势的市场地位； 由于拥有接近 500家的主打生鲜和日常必需品的便民超市，公司商品结构刚性要强于以大卖场为主的超市企业，在社会消费品零售总额增速仍在下滑、消费者信心指数未见起色的2009年，尤其看好这一品类优势。	0.43	0.56	----	12.00
国信证券	2009/04/15	推荐	武汉市将采用政府补贴的方式在重点商业服务业中尝试与工业水电费同价，武汉中百属于受益公司之一。如果政府补贴可以抵税，则可以提升业绩0.03 元/股。如果下半年开始，通胀会逐渐抬头甚至走强，那么超市行业属于明显的收益行业，策略上09年上半年是买入估值较低超市的较好时机。	0.38	0.47	----	11.00
兴业证券	2009/04/17	推荐	作为华中地区的超市龙头企业，公司将持续受益于湖北省消费市场的强劲增长。仓储超市业务是公司主要利润来源，目前有网点125个，未来扩张重点为省内二、三线城市。预计公司仓储超市将保持每年15家的开店速度。目前公司已有便民超市网点479 个，规模及网络优势十分突出，没有竞争对手。预计将保持每年净增40家左右的扩张速度。武商联重组的实质性进展可能成为公司股价的催化剂。	0.35	0.44	0.54	11.20~13.23
长江证券	2009/04/17	推荐	作为湖北地区销售规模最大的零售企业，存在整合当地连锁超市的强烈预期。如果整合能够实施，中百可以实现在当地超市业的实质经营垄断，并在财务上带来规模扩大、毛利率提升和净利润增长。在行业景气度较弱的情况下，公司08-09年仍然维持快速扩张，一旦同店增长有所复苏，可持续增长空间将是巨大的。	0.37	0.46	----	11.00~12.00
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.383	0.483	0.54	11.68
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	24.02	19.05	17.04
风 险 提 示
（1）重庆市场培育持续不利，导致公司的异地扩张尝试失败；（2）省内扩张速度低于预期。