劲嘉股份（002191）：走上外延式扩张轨道

　　行情整体运行到目前为止已经开始出现泡沫化的苗头，选择基本面既有安全边际又有明确成长趋势的公司已经难上加难，但劲嘉股份仍能符合这些要求。首先是，其属于典型的非周期行业，金融危机、经济衰退等对它毫无影响；其次是，整个行业正处在行业整并阶段，其作为行业龙头正处于黄金扩张期；再则是，行业整并为其带来了低成本收购兼并的机会，通过外延式扩张带来了业绩的稳步增长。很显然，该公司目前仍具备价值成长的投资机会，也仍具备收购兼并等事件性投资机会，这些应是诸多机构投资者一致看好的原因所在。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                         

                                                                                                                 随着烟标市场份额增长到一定比例，公司有望在未来3-5 年向酒类、高档化妆品等领域扩张，致力于打造成为中高档奢侈消费品外包装的综合服务商。在宏观经济下滑的背景下公司依然保持稳定快速增长，是市场难得的确定性增长品种，值得中长期持有。                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值(元)
09年	10年	11年
申银万国	2009/06/02	买入	收购天外绿包 24.05%股权，增厚09 年和10 年业绩0.02 元和0.03 元；收购 PE 仅7.87 倍，好于预期，为后续三产收购奠定价格标杆。	0.54	0.60	0.64	13.50
国金证券	2009/06/02	买入	上市以来公司增持安徽安泰、收购天外绿包，再到这次增持天外绿包，反应了公司外延式扩张的发展模式，而这个外延式扩张是在烟草行业整合的大背景下展开的，使之更具有可持续性和操作成功的可能性。行业整合还在进行，公司继续并购是不可避免的，这是行业发展和公司发展的结合；公司凭借自身的优势将成为烟标印刷行业整合的胜者，在变革的时代公司将逐渐扩大其市场份额。公司良好的并购预期可能带来业绩的超预期。	0.55	0.72	0.90	14.00
长江证券	2009/06/02	推荐	公司所处行业为卷烟配套行业，95%以上的收入占比为烟标。从卷烟行业来看，由于烟草的消费具有极强的粘性，而中国的禁烟和提倡戒烟的运动始终未显很大效果，烟草消费未来仍将保持稳定增长的态势。烟草行业属于典型强抗周期行业，公司下游需求刚性稳定。作为行业龙头企业，将受益与下游卷烟行业的整合。	0.52	0.58	----	-----
银河证券	2009/06/02	谨慎推荐	公司主营烟标印刷业务，由于上游的烟草行业保持稳定自然增长，因此烟标的需求将保持稳定成长。为了进一步巩固公司在国内烟标行业的领先地位，公司一方面通过新建设备，扩大印刷能力；另一方面在08年采取了系列的并购举措，扩大市场份额。去年完成的3宗并购中，收购天外绿包29%股权实现相对控股，使公司成功扩大在华东市场的份额，公司年均复合增长达到14.1%左右。	0.54	0.59	0.63	-----
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.538	0.623	0.723	13.75
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	21.23	18.33	15.79
风 险 提 示
政府对烟草行业的严厉管制，以及禁烟、戒烟运动的强化影响下游需求，进而会影响公司利润。