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    机构股票池·中线成长股
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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    2009年06月07日      来源:上海证券报      作者:

                     公司子公司拥有锂电池负极材料6000吨产能和锂电池正极材料磷酸铁锂1500吨产能。电动汽车将极大拉动锂电池产业,公司有望充分受益。近期西藏矿业、中信国安等锂电池概念股有所启动,该股可能跟随上涨,建议短线买入。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            公司作为中国领先的零售银行,拥有庞大的客户基础、广为人知的品牌、品种繁多的产品和优质的服务。截至去年中期,公司人民币存款总额在13家股份制银行中排名第二,人民币储蓄存款总额排名第二,人民币贷款总额排名第二,人民币个人消费贷款总额排名第一。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         金岭矿业(000655)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                     民生银行(600016)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司拟定向增发购买资产,目前已获得证监会通过,不久后将会实施。此外,大股东山东金岭铁矿承诺在2010年前择机注入其持有的金鼎矿业40%股权。一旦金鼎矿业的股权注入公司,公司盈利能力将进一步增强。公司增发价高于目前现价,后市该股有望大幅上涨。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                     公司特色化的定位,专业化的分工以及调整后的薪酬体系将为2009年后的较快发展打下基础。公司还计划进军房价较为稳定的二线城市房地产业,主要房地产客户集中于上海、南京、杭州等地。未来随着房地产行业的回暖,公司此类业务也将贡献稳定收益。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 海螺型材(000619)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         公司主要从事中高档塑料型材、板材、门窗、五金制品的生产、销售和科研开发,是我国排名第一的型材生产企业,市场占有率超过35%。随着PVC价格回落,公司2009年一季度毛利率从2008年同期的9.5%回升至14%,净利润也实现了了同比65.1%的快速增长,公司业绩出现快速增长是比较明确的。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                     湘电股份(600416)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                     我国风电行业未来三年仍将维持高速增长态势,在主流的1.5-2.5MW整机中,直驱永磁风机优势明显,而目前国内能够批量生产直驱永磁风机的仅有湘电和金风。公司近期停牌可能将定向增发收购集团49%风能股权,建议继续积极关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                     公司是一家深耕杭州市场十余年的房地产开发商,品牌优势明显,开发产品系列清晰;由于具有较强的市场把握能力,公司今明两年业绩已基本锁定,未来2-3年都能够保持较快增长。安信证券维持买入评级,给予6个月目标价15元,对应2009、2010年PE分别为25、20倍。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     公司收购深圳能源集团拥有的全部资产后,权益装机容量增长1.6倍,总装机容量达到586.5万千瓦。同时公司融风能、核能以及创投概念等多种题材于一身,有一定的想象空间。该股筹码呈集中趋势,目前在箱底区域横盘震荡积蓄做多动能。近期二线蓝筹股轮番走强,该股有望补涨。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         滨州活塞(600960)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                     鞍钢股份(000898)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司是一家以内燃机活塞作为主导产品的上市公司,国内主机市场占有率超过50%,载重车活塞主机市场占有率60%左右,产品国内市场综合占有率在25%以上。该股在5月初冲高回落后步入获利回吐期,目前围绕30日均线反复震荡拉据,有资金护盘动作,建议关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                     公司经营正在向好的方向发展,目前产能利用率已经达到90%,一旦市场价格稳步回升,公司业绩弹性将大幅增加。国信证券预计公司2009-2010年EPS分别为0.21和1.1元,当前估值水平偏低,提高评级至推荐。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             常山股份(000158)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         公司是国家重点支持的国有控股大型支柱企业,公司技术中心被国家发改委、财政部、海关部署、国家税务总局联合审定为“国家认定企业技术中心”,也是全国棉纺织行业中首家国家级企业技术中心,公司还被中国纺织工业协会授予首届纺织“科学技术贡献奖”。近期三个月来,该股维持反复箱体整理格局,目前已成功突破箱顶,有望继续上拓空间。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                     蓝星清洗(000598)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                     资产置换推出后,公司有望成为西南地区水务龙头,在政策扶持和排水业务持续增长驱动下公司长期发展前景看好。申银万国预计公司2009-2011年EPS分别为0.43、0.47和0.5元,首次评级为增持,合理股价13元,未来可能推出的资产整合方案将成为股价表现的催化剂因素。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                     点评:华夏红利(160307)的选股思路专注于通胀预期上升带来的资产类股票投资机会,如以地产金融为代表的早周期行业、资产(土地)富裕型公司。与此同时,对主题类投资也保持关注,因为在估值束缚下投资热点将由价值成长逐步转向重组题材的炒作。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 点评:招商成长(161706)的选股思路主要有两个,一是跟随市场氛围进行仓位结构以及选股方向的调整。比如说在今年上半年,随着行情的活跃,该基金增持了煤炭、有色、化工、金融、地产等周期性行业,减持了医药、消费与服务、交通运输等防守性行业。二是关注经济发展的先导性产业与基础性产业的投资机会,因此,在电力设备、金融地产等方面也有较大的仓位配置。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     就其重仓股来说,德美化工一方面向中高端产品积极延伸,另一方面与客户维持长期合作关系。自2008年9月以来,公司产品毛利率稳步提升。与此同时,公司进行了卓有成效的产业投资,湖南尤特尔、辽宁奥克、宜宾天原等股权投资就是最好的例证,后两者有进入上市程序的信息;民生银行的优势在于银行业务目前处于利润释放阶段,而且公司有向金融控股方向发展的可能性,这无疑有利于公司估值的溢价优势;辽宁成大则是典型的广发证券影子股,随着IPO开闸,广发证券的业绩增长势头或更为乐观。更何况,随着时间推移,广发证券借壳上市事宜或有乐观预期。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        就其重仓股来说,博瑞传播公告拟收购网络游戏公司成都梦工厂100%股权,超出市场预期,预计有望增厚公司业绩。而且收购仅仅是公司拓展互联网业务的第一步,后续收购仍值得期待。此外,公司可能获得成都市更多广告资源,户外广告业务拓展有望成为公司股价新的催化剂;海通证券的优势在于今年上半年业绩的相对增长,以及IPO开闸后所带来的新的利润增长点,未来业绩增长趋势相对乐观;特变电工则由于公司的主导产品符合国家电网公司的投资方向,在特高压等方面拥有较强的竞争优势,未来成长性较为确定。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                     点评:工银成长(164804)的选股思路有两个,一是加大大消费、医药和符合产业政策的基建、电力设备等确定性行业来保持稳定性。二是持有部分周期性行业来面对可能提前到来的经济实际复苏或预期效应。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             点评:德盛精选(162504)的选股思路有两个,一是对金融股情有独钟,不仅仅包括银行股,也包括券商股,更包括大量拥有金融股权的个股,这说明该基金对属于经济基础的金融行业有着较为深刻的认识。二是对资源股予以积极配置。在当前流动性过剩的大背景下,资源价格仍有进一步涨升趋势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                     就其重仓股来说,长航油运成长性不错。2009年随着大批超级油轮下水和投入运营,公司货运周转量即将出现一轮爆发式的增长期。按照公司计划,2009年货运周转量同比将增长92%,而且预计2010年还将继续增长40%以上。由于公司石油成品油运输收入占总收入的84%,2009年公司大批新船投入运行,特别是VLCC船舶的大批运行就使得油品运输即将出现大幅度上升局面,业绩有望同步快速增长,目前估值略低;城投控股的优势在于集团公司拥有大量的优质土地资源,经过产业整合后公司拥有水务与房地产两块业务,前景均相对乐观,目前估值优势明显;天地科技的优势在于两点,一是外延式扩张,收购集团公司优质资产。二是煤炭安全意识的强化使得煤炭生产企业的投资力度加大,公司产品需求相对旺盛,短线机会不错。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         就其重仓股来说,江钻股份是亚洲最大、世界第三的石油钻头生产商。受国际金融危机影响,2009年公司订单与去年同比略有下降,但武汉钻头厂金刚石钻头生产线已建成投产,公司拟借此建立战略性产品更新换代机制,提高金刚石钻头产品性能,未来有望成为新的盈利增长点。而且公司股改时承诺,江汉石油管理局将利用增发或其它方式将优质资产注入,未来基本面仍可乐观期待;亚泰集团的股权投资极具成效,目前拥有东北证券、江海证券以及吉林银行的优质金融股权。同时公司水泥主营业务也是向上下游产业链延伸,业绩相对确定增长;西部矿业的优势在于公司目前的铜矿资源将成为新的利润增长点,且目前铜资源价格弹升幅度最大。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

    申银万国     中国宝安(000009)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              招商银行(600036)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             森洋投资
         策略:本周市场在上攻到2800点附近时略有力不从心的感觉,获利盘抛压明显增强,短线可能有小幅回调休整要求。但后期震荡攀升趋势未变,投资者可考虑在短线休整过程中逢低吸纳热点品种。     策略:大盘中长期涨跌仍然取决于宏观经济基本面,下周5月份宏观经济数据将公布、IPO重启悬念逐渐明朗、限售股解禁量将大幅回升,预计将引发市场波动。操作上,从目前来看短期内并未改变震荡格局,投资者应注意控制仓位。
    证券通     滨江集团(002244)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              深圳能源(000027)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             九鼎德盛
         策略:国泰君安建议关注以下三条线索:一、前期滞涨板块安全边际比较高,如造纸、电力、钢铁和食品饮料;二、出口复苏受益行业,尤其是出口行业的服务行业,比如航运股;三、油价上涨带来的投资线索,煤化工、钾肥和磷化工等是关注重点。      策略:近期市场放量突破上行,未来只要权重股大旗不倒,市场有望保持稳中有升格局。操作上,目前领涨品种涨幅已大,不要一味追涨,逢低挖掘有基本面支撑的滞涨股波段参与较为关键。
    华夏红利     华夏红利股票池:(002054)德美化工、(600016)民生银行 (600739)辽宁成大。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     招商成长股票池:(600880)博瑞传播、(600837)海通证券、(600089)特变电工。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     招商成长
         策略:该基金判断近期市场机会可能更多地来自于新兴成长股与主题投资,因此减持了基建行业、医药行业的股票,增持了上海本地股、节能减排、风电核电等股。与此同时,该基金坚持以灵活的视角,加强对新事物的研究,取得了合理回报。     策略:该基金的操作策略较为灵活,视市场趋势而变化。比如说该基金在年初由于对市场整体走势较为谨慎,采取了偏向于防守的策略。但春节后即因为市场趋势的活跃而对策略做了适当调整,增加了组合的进攻性,提高了股票资产的配置比例。
    工银成长     工银成长股票池:(600087)长航油运、(600649)城投控股、(600582)天地科技。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  德盛精选股票池:(000852)江钻股份、(600881)亚泰集团、(601168)西部矿业。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     德盛精选
         策略:该基金之前强调均衡配置原则,核心仓位集中于一些业绩确定性行业,所以年初一段时间内业绩表现一般。但该基金随即意识到2009年行情的可持续性,迅速增持了金融、地产、机械、煤炭、原材料等周期性行业,净值增长率迅速得到改善。     策略:该基金认为随着经济基本面的逐步回暖,上市公司业绩将成为市场关注的焦点,同时外围经济能否企稳也值得高度关注。总体看,该基金对后市持相对谨慎乐观的态度,同时该基金在做好个股选择的同时更加重视时机选择,以提升收益。