博瑞传播（600880）：未来拓展性值得期待

　　博瑞传播收购梦工厂游戏，一石激起千层浪。首先，此举意味着博瑞传播从传统媒体切入新媒体，赋予了公司成长空间，也改变了股票价格的估值标准；其次，梦工厂的网游业务目前是头现金牛，将显著提升公司的业绩水平，也给带来了创投概念。并且使公司成为了A股市场中真正意义上的“网游第一股”；再则，公司形成了平面媒体、商业印刷、电视广告、户外广告、网络媒体、新媒体产业、文化产业于一体的传媒托拉斯，未来的拓展性仍可值得期待。

　　在股票行情中，业绩与估值标准双双提升带来的乘数效应，以及显著的成长潜力自然会促使行情趋势继续向好。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值(元)
09年	10年	11年
中信证券	2009/06/08	买入	公司属于成都地区强势垄断的媒体企业，在报纸印刷、发行方面具有垄断地位，在手机网游涉足，形成跨媒体、跨区域的新型传媒企业。	0.74	0.92	----	25.00
中信建投	2009/06/08	增持	网游目前处于高速发展阶段，市场潜力十分巨大，进入网游对公司长期发展重大利好，估值也从平面媒体转变为对互联网公司的估值。	0.78	1.04	1.21	25.00
国信证券	2009/06/08	推荐	收购梦工厂协议约定：2009 -2011年净利润同比增长率分别不低于30%。收购完成后，梦工厂将成为博瑞最为重要的利润增长点。	0.75	0.91	1.00	-----
中金公司	2009/06/08	推荐	梦工厂盈利能力超预期，博瑞传播入主将带来资金支持，提升梦工厂的游戏开发能力和推广能力，承诺业绩增长实现的可见度较高。	0.72	0.90	----	22.00
民生证券	2009/06/08	强烈推荐	梦工厂2006年成立，过去三年净利润年复合增长率在100%以上，净利率也从初期的40%增长到68%，毛利率从80%增长到93%，体现了较好的盈利能力和成长性。	0.77	0.99	1.13	26.95
海通证券	2009/06/08	买入	2009-2011年梦工厂给博瑞贡献的每股收益分别为0.15 元、0.32 元、0.45 元，2009年存在《成都日报》和《成都晚报》印刷业务注入的可能。未来旗下梦工厂、以及手中乾坤将有独立IPO的计划，使得公司具备创投概念，	0.81	1.06	1.21	-----
光大证券	2009/06/07	增持	公司在2007年参股手中乾坤之后又一次大规模涉水新媒体，投资竞争激励回报丰厚的网游产业。至此，公司形成传统报纸经营、商印和户外广告、新媒体三大业务格局。	0.72	0.76	0.87	21.60
中投证券	2009/06/06	推荐	鉴于公司平面媒体业务的稳定性、户外广告业务的高成长、本次收购加大对公司新业务发展的想象空间和业绩弹性等因素，预计市场将愿意给予博瑞至少20%的估值溢价。	0.76	0.94	1.09	22.80
招商证券	2009/06/06	强烈推荐	博瑞完成对梦工厂的收购后，将使公司加大买方收费业务在整个收入中的比重，网游业务本身较高的净利率水平，也将极大提升博瑞整体盈利能力，存在极大想象空间。	0.77	0.96	1.11	25.00
申银万国	2009/06/05	买入	新媒体和户外广告同为公司拓展的两大重点战略领域，后续会否在网络上下游产业链进一步布局值得关注，可能带来新的股价催化剂。	0.79	1.00	1.17	25.00
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.761	0.948	1.10	24.17
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	25.37	20.37	17.55
风 险 提 示
（1）网游是个高投入产业，投入后产出有较大不确定性，将影响到对公司利润的贡献；（2）新媒体业务与传统媒体业务如何共存与协调带来管理上的挑战。（3）网络游戏行业竞争激励、且产品生命周期短。