由于旅游、股权投资、房地产是公司的三大主营，中青旅的经营在去年全球金融危机中遭受影响比较明显。即使如此，该公司去年的业绩下滑程度比大多数公司要好得多。

　　今年，除了入境游仍有影响外，股市的回升将会使去年的浮动亏损得以冲回，而房地产市场的火爆将使公司的盈利能力大幅增强。更重要的是，明年世博会的举行，将使该公司的旅游业务、会展业务迎来增长的黄金期。因此，尽管机构投资者给予该公司的估值还比较谨慎，但无论是已有业绩给予现有估值水平的防御性，还是世博赐予的增长机会，该公司目前是明显被市场低估。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              (元)
09年	10年	11年
安信证券	2009/06/18	增持-A	旅游服务之外的业务在今年的增长更加明确，去年由于资本市场的一度下行，公司投资股票业务产生了巨大的减值损失，而今年随着股市回升浮亏已经可以完全实现冲回，至此对业绩有较大干扰的风险已经可以解除。另外，为了应对房产低迷，公司将慈溪房产项目分拆为三期滚动开发，这一新变动将使得新项目在今年贡献利润，成为预期之外的新增量，从而使得今年增长幅度更进一步。	0.47	0.58	12.15
国金证券	2009/06/07	买入	鉴于公司在会奖业务、自由行业务、乌镇景区等主营业务上的良好表现，全年旅游主业部分的盈利贡献可能超出预期；乌镇子公司作为已能独立运行发展的景区资源型资产，有望充分受益于2010 年上海世博会，并符合公司未来5 年内培育和控股2~3 家旅游上市公司的发展战略，从完善公司治理结构的考虑，乌镇存在引入战略投资者的强烈预期，在适当时机下实现分拆上市；此外，不排除未来借助资本市场平台参与旅游产业整合的可能，藉此将对公司估值提升产生积极影响。	0.44	0.46	12.61~13.87
凯基证券	2009/06/02	持有	房地产市场近期逐渐复苏，公司于郑州与杭州的项目销售顺利，预计房地产销售至少与去年持平。因此2009 年房地产营收预测上调25%至6.9 亿元。慈溪新项目已于5 月开工，地点在慈溪市区中心，意味未来销售潜力雄厚。此项目应可提供未来2-3 年盈利机会。因此，将2010 与2011 年房地产营收预测由3.5 亿元与2.4 亿元上修至4.5 亿元与6 亿元。	0.39	0.43	0.53	11.82
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.433	0.497	0.523	12.40
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	24.71	21.53	20.46
风 险 提 示
（1）受金融危机影响，入境游业务增长潜能减弱；（2）房地产业务受政策影响比较大，股权投资收益受股票市场波动影响比较大。