青岛海尔（600690）：迈入新的成长轨道

　　经过多年的筹谋之后，青岛海尔的股权激励方案终于出炉，从而使高管与大股东的利益取得一致，也释放了公司管理效率与生产力。同时，在有了利益驱动之后，集团战略也开始全面向上市公司转移，以白色家电为主的资产将陆续向上市公司注入，从而使公司进入内生性增长与外生性增长共促进的新成长轨道。进而是公司的行业地位、经营竞争力与品牌价值得到进入步提高。公司出现的新景象、业绩与估值中枢的双重提升，使该公司股票已经得到了机构投资者的高度关注。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值(元)
09年	10年	11年
银河证券	2009/07/20	推荐	青岛海尔和海尔电器是海尔集团分别在A股和H股的融资窗口，从目前集团的战略布局观察，将整合白色家电的重点逐步转移至青岛海尔，作为白电资产的一部分，海尔的洗衣机资产将最终进入到A股上市公司，随着海尔集团向A股上市公司战略倾斜，集团更多的资源将投入到A股公司中。海尔是国内为数不多掌握滚筒洗衣机核心技术的厂商，处于行业第一的位置，随着青岛海尔对海尔电器合并报表，业绩也将逐渐增厚。公司除了受消费升级及政府刺激消费政策的影响获得增长动力以外，通过流程再造，公司的营业周期和库存周转天数都出现了大幅下降，这将提高公司的现金流转效率；随着公司流程再造投入进入尾声，费用率也将逐渐回落，从而提升公司的盈利能力。	0.74	0.88	1.04	----
申银万国	2009/07/16	增持	公司5月份的股权激励以及大股东增持反映出的新变化，全面激励的深入实施，高管以及大股东的利益高度一致，公司价值有望确定性回归。 在利益取向一致的状况下，白电资产的整合有望加速。综合考虑相关白电资产的盈利、整合必要性及易操作性，海尔电器的洗衣机和热水器业务，以及相关的部分上游产业有望整合进入上市公司。冰洗产品在家电下乡的政策作用下，数据明显反弹，空调业务也将走出低谷。建议积极“增持”，享受公司治理改善以及相关利益统一趋势确立后的价值回归。	0.73	0.87	1.03	18.20
联合证券	2009/07/13	增持	海尔转型等于海尔的未来：转型对海尔影响深远，是海尔获取“与高毛利率相匹配的高盈利能力”的关键，对转型的判断也应成为判断海尔投资价值的前提；转型能带来海尔运营效率的极大提升，但转型复杂而艰巨，效果也是渐进体现的；07年是转型之始，08年是转折最艰难时期，也是业绩的最低谷，09 年转型效果初现，持续改善趋势已建立。公司成长才刚开始，未来3年成长空间巨大，保守估计，净利率可从08 年2.5%提升到2011年的4.1%。	0.73	0.98	1.28	----
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.733	0.91	1.117	18.20
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	19.74	15.90	12.95
风 险 提 示
（1）资产整合进度低于预期的风险；（2）经济增长低于预期导致家电需求低于预期的风险；（3）转型效果低于预期的风险；（4）空调业务运营效率提升低于预期的风险。