卧龙电气主营各种电机、控制装置、网络电源、特种变压器等，在今年上半年受益于铁路建设和“4万亿”投资而业绩显著增长，在公司牵引变压器业务享受到政策红利之时，UPS 电源业务又将受益于正在大规模投入的3G建设，再加上下半年开始复苏的电机出口业务恢复增长，公司已非常明确地进入了规模扩张与高速增长并进的阶段。

　　因此，对公司股票施以价值增长的投资理念正当其时，该股由此也被诸多机构投资者高度看好。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                      

                                                                                                          

                                                                                             

                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             (元)
09年	10年	11年
中银国际	2009/07/29	买入	公司上半年业绩超出市场预期。上半年银川变压器收入达到了2.1 亿，同比增长149%，华泰变压器09年下半年开始并表，公司变压器业务将伴随国家的铁路和地铁的大规模建设而快速发展。公司在浙江绍兴袍江工业区的通讯网络电源新厂于今年6月开始动工，达产后产能将翻番增长。电机业务2010年开始复苏。	0.79	1.01	1.29	20.20
申银万国	2009/07/29	增持	尽管下半年牵引变压器和UPS 电源业务毛利率将随着价格调整将下降，但由于电机业务将呈现恢复增长，规模效应将导致毛利率继续向好，全年仍有望维持在较高的综合毛利率水平，预计在24%左右。公司电机出口业务比例较大，上半年由于金融危机影响下滑近20%，预计下半年出口业务将出现恢复性增长。	0.64	0.81	0.94	---
中信证券	2009/07/29	买入	公司下属银川变压器厂是国内铁路牵引变压器行业龙头，市场占有率约有40%，预计全年可达到4.5亿元的销售规模，毛利率维持在30%左右。未来3年3G带动的移动通信网络设备投资总额将超过4000亿元，09年高达1700亿元，公司UPS电源产品将显著受益于3G技术大规模商用推广，预计全年可完成5亿销售，同比增速达到25%以上。	0.74	0.95	----	20.00
平安证券	2009/07/29	强烈推荐	电机及控制作为公司传统产品，受制于宏观经济仍处于复苏阶段，下降幅度达到29%。网络能源和变压器有很好表现，分别增长23%和150%，主要与3G的大规模建设以及4万亿投资有关。公司收购了华泰变压器51%股权，主要从事地铁变压器的生产，行业地位与银川变压器类似，将成为新的利润增长点。	0.74	0.95	1.24	18.50~19.00
浙商证券	2009/07/29	强烈推荐	公司通信网络用UPS电源产品09年上半年销售收入为2.27 亿元，同比增长22.53%，毛利率接近30%；牵引变压器产品09 年上半年销售收入增加149.62%，在销售收入中的占比为19.92%，较08 年底提高9.86 个百分点，成为业绩增长最快的产品系。以上两大业务将成为公司未来几年主要的利润增长点。	0.68	----	----	---
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.718	0.93	1.157	19.65
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	22.41	17.30	13.91
风 险 提 示
（1）出口业务风险、发公司债收购进程风险；（2）钢材涨价风险、3G网络铺设速度降低风险、竞争对手增多风险。