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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    大单投注站·短线热门股
    朝阳永续:研究显示目标涨幅巨大品种追踪
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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    2009年08月02日      来源:上海证券报      作者:

                     公司是西北地区最大的水泥经营商和油井水泥生产基地,区域水泥涨价构成基本面利好,中报已预增120%。此外,公司持股887万股的西部建设如能顺利过会IPO,股权投资将大幅增值。该股在突破平台后进入上升通道运行,可把握短线震荡节奏跟进。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    公司是国内优秀的通讯设备供应商,随着工业和信息化部的组建和运营商重组工作的进行,中国通信市场发展进入了一个新的阶段。未来国内CDMA、TD-SCDMA开标并供货、WCDMA开始招标建设,国际一些重大项目陆续进入执行阶段,公司经营依然有望保持确定性的增长。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     大亚科技(000910)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             交大昂立(600530)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                     公司人造板业务受益全球气候变暖及节能减排政策,木地板业务存在着美国等主要消费国房地产业回暖、需求提升、出口复苏的主题机会。近日公告子公司与微软的诉讼案达成和解,消除了不确定因素。走势上该股平台整固面临向上突破,可参与。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     公司是我国保健品龙头企业,其拥有的昂立商标被评为中国驰名商标。专家预测,保健酒正在继白酒、啤酒、葡萄酒之后成为我国酒业第四势力,行业仍然处于成长初级阶段,行业的发展阶段决定了保健酒的丰厚利润率。公司作为保健酒及保健食品和营养补充剂龙头企业,未来有望获得超预期发展。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                     宜华木业(600978)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             金发科技(002202)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                     公司是国内重点家具生产厂商,产品外销率高达98%以上,其2008年签订的6亿多美元框架协议使得公司在全球经济衰退背景下订单未受影响。随着近期世界范围内经济复苏苗头显现,下阶段出口复苏有望成为市场主题热点。该股近日突破盘局上行,可介入。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        公司是全球改性塑料行业产品覆盖种类最为齐全的企业之一,也是目前国内规模最大、产品最齐全的改性塑料生产企业。公司科研实力强大,目前公司已经建立了国内一流的研发平台,成为行业内首家国家认可的实验室,为产品质量的稳定和提升提供了可靠保障。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                     由于新标准颁布导致仿瓷餐具行业洗牌,公司主业ML氨基复合材料市场空间大增。进军环保型IC环氧塑封料市场是公司未来的看点,而房地产业务可增厚2010年业绩,招商证券预测摊薄后三年EPS为0.25元、0.42元和0.47元,予强烈推荐评级,目标价为9.2-11.5元。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        公司是我国农药行业龙头,公司多项经济指标多年来均位居同行业第一。公司多项产品的市场占有率均居全国前列,在国外已注册了140多个农药品种,也是国家认定的企业技术中心和微生物农药国家工程研究中心基地。该股短线下挫后60日均线支撑显现,后市有望酝酿恢复性上扬行情。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     中国银行(601988)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                     韶钢松山(000717)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             公司是首家A+H上市的国有银行,拥有最广泛的海外分支机构网络,在外汇存贷款、国际结算、外汇资金和银行卡等领域居领先地位。从2008年9月23日至2009年3月末,中央汇金投资有限责任公司增持公司A股8160万股。本周三该股在大幅下挫后被迅速拉起,阶段性低点已探明,后市有望在市场宽幅震荡中充当护盘角色,建议关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                     韶钢松山有较好的生产和销售基础,经营发展前景良好,未来业绩大幅增长可期。广发证券预计公司2009-2011年EPS分别为0.16元、0.53元和0.67元,予以买入评级,合理估值为9.54元。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            铜陵有色(000630)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     最近几年公司通过收购国内铜矿资源,进一步增加冶炼产能获取规模效益和行业影响力,并不断加大铜材加工投入,已进入铜的线材、棒材、箔材、板带材加工,是目前国内产业链最为完整的铜业公司。该股目前已退守至30日均线,主力洗盘较为充分,短线有望重续升势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                     东方市场(000301)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                     在流动性充裕的背景下,公司具有防守和进攻特征。伴随着国内房地产市场和土地价格的升温,公司资产价值明显受益,而交易所准金融资产的特点也可以提升内在价值,申银万国出具报告维持公司买入评级,目标价为8元。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                     点评:(161806)银华优质的选股思路主要有三个,一是积极关注金融、地产、汽车等经济复苏受益行业。二是关注受益于固定资产投资的中游制造业以及可选消费相关行业,比如机械、钢铁、家电、零售。三是关注有政策支持的新能源和有业绩支撑的资源类股票,主要是因为此类个股具有业绩弹性强等优势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             点评:易基科汇(161111)的选股思路主要是寻找成长性行业的结构性机会,比如说该基金认为银行的息差在二季度见底,而随着经济好转未来形成大量坏账的可能性变小,相对估值有优势,因此予以重点跟踪。与此同时,该基金也认为医药、消费等行业因为市场容量的不断拓展而具有持续成长优势,故也对此类行业的优质品种予以跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     就其重仓股来说,卧龙电气亮点在于铁路变压器增长超预期,半年报显示该产品实现收入2.1亿元,增长150%,毛利率增长13.31 个百分点,超出市场预期。而公司特种变压器包括银川卧龙变压器厂生产的铁路牵引变压器和新收购的北京华泰变压器厂生产的铁路配变,故在目前的铁路大建设中公司显著受益。与此同时,另一产品通讯基站蓄电池受益3G移动通讯网建设;上海汽车的基本面亮点在于行业景气乐观,自主品牌优势渐渐显现。而且合资汽车公司的盈利能力也处于复苏态势中,尤其是迎合了我国中高端汽车占有率提升趋势;华侨城则是因为公司地产+旅游的经营模式有望赋予公司较高的盈利能力。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 就其重仓股来说,京能热电的优势主要在于三点,一是煤炭业务的酸刺沟煤矿投资收益改为权益法核算。二是电力使用小时提升之后适逢公司新机组投产,盈利成长性较为乐观。三是较低的估值,目前2010年动态市盈率只有18倍左右,在当前电力股以及A股市场中处于中低水平,低估值有望引来资金关注;五粮液的优势在于公司削弱关联交易的努力以及目前高端白酒有进一步提价预期,所以公司股价有进一步活跃的趋势;辽宁成大是广发证券的影子股,在券商IPO步伐提速以及董正青案渐次尘埃落定背景下,广发证券借壳上市前景渐趋明朗。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                     点评:建信成长(165303)的选股思路是根据经济复苏的阶段性表现进行选股,具体体现在三点,一是从经济复苏的早周期角度出发,关注银行、地产、汽车、券商和机械、煤炭;二是从业绩增长角度出发,关注输配电设备、水泥、医药以及电信设备制造;三是从经济复苏的后周期受益角度出发,关注食品、零售、消费品等相关上市公司。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    点评:(160710)嘉实策略的选股思路主要有两点,一是重点挖掘成长性,不仅仅是对行业市场容量拓展所带来的成长性,而且还有对企业的市场占有率提升所带来的成长性。二是从市场趋势投资角度寻找相对活跃的投资品种,主要是关注通胀、新能源、重组等方面主题性的投资机会。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     就其重仓股来说,歌尔声学不断迎接终端厂商的产能转移,替代日韩电声厂商的份额一直是公司的成长故事。目前在三星与LG的市场份额不断提升,分别达到30%和10%,并从二季度承接滨特力的全线蓝牙代工业务,业绩面临着向上拐点。与此同时,有望进入到诺基亚的供应商名单,故可跟踪;大商股份主要是外延式扩张优势明显,尤其是对收购营业网点的整合效应有所显现,业绩释放能力强,可跟踪;金融街的优势在于公司的商业地产与住宅地产齐头并进,有望提升公司的估值溢价预期,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 就其重仓股来说,中鼎股份作为国内非轮胎橡胶件龙头企业,汽车行业景气延续为公司主业稳定增长奠定了基础。而随着公司对橡胶产业链的深入发掘,外延式扩张为其未来成长带来较大的想象空间。更为重要的是,产品升级以及应用范围的拓展带来了丰富的想象空间,其中游戏鼓膜片等业务就是如此,故可积极跟踪;西山煤电的优势在于产能释放以及公司在炼焦煤产业的垄断优势地位,炼焦煤也受益于钢铁产能利用率提升,故业绩增长趋势确定,可持有;对于华发股份来说,主要在于公司地产项目所处位置拥有极强的区域优势,且未来优质项目陆续竣工投产有望带来新的业绩增长点,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

    申银万国     天山股份(000877)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         中兴通讯(000063)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             森洋投资
         策略:3454-3174点的震荡对中期走势在技术上做了修正,没有政策利空前提下纯技术调整有利于行情继续保持中期温和上升。相对滞涨品种有望进入补涨周期,可关注基本面回暖的水泥、建材等板块,出口复苏主题有望成为下阶段新热点。     策略:市场基本面总体依然向好,奠定了大盘中长期继续走强的基础。目前需要注意的是从下周开始陆续公布的7月份宏观经济数据,若符合预期则市场继续上行无碍,若低于预期,则可能会引发市场短期震荡,甚至会有大幅回调的可能。
    证券通     广东榕泰(600589)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         沙隆达A(000553)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             九鼎德盛
         策略:综合政策、基本面以及外围市场趋势,中金公司认为本周三A股市场的下跌属于前期市场快速、大幅上涨之后的获利回调。在外围环境稳定、我国7月份宏观经济数据显示经济依然向好的支持下,市场调整幅度有限,市场中期趋势并未改变。     策略:市场经过周三宽幅震荡后近两日的反弹已将周三长阴线吞噬掉,市场重续升势,热点开始向多元化发展。操作上,对调整到60日均线的个股可逢盘中震荡低吸,把握板块轮动带来的补涨机会,应避免一味追涨强势股。
    银华优质     银华优质股票池:(600580)卧龙电气、(600104)上海汽车、(000069)华侨城A。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              易基科汇股票池:(600578)京能热电、(000858)五粮液、(600739)辽宁成大。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     易基科汇
         策略:该基金认为三季度行情将在基本面和流动性双重推动下继续震荡上行,市场风格将出现转换。认为受益于固定资产投资的中游制造业以及可选消费相关行业机会相对较大,因此将更多依靠“自下而上”精选个股的策略,加强结构性调整。     策略:该基金认同国内经济在逐渐复苏的观点,因此维持了较高的股票配置比例。同时也认为需要根据市场估值水平变化进行必要的策略操作,包括仓位调整和板块切换,同时将通过自下而上方式挖掘业绩超预期品种。
    建信成长     建信成长股票池:(002241)歌尔声学、(600694)大商股份、(000402)金融街。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 嘉实策略股票池:(000887)中鼎股份、(000983)西山煤电、(600325)华发股份。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 嘉实策略
         策略:该基金自年初以来,基于对政策、资金面、宏观经济三个方面基本面回暖预期,对A股市场给予了相对乐观的判断。围绕受益于投资拉动、新兴产业、消费回暖三个方面构件基金投资组合,重点配置了银行、地产、建材、工程机械、家电、新能源、消费、采掘等行业的相关公司,取得了相对乐观的投资回报。     策略:该基金认为流动性充裕格局在未来一段时间内仍将持续,这也将为资本市场提供良好的支撑,因此,将采用相对积极的投资策略。一方面,继续维持较高的仓位;另一方面,积极优化组合的结构,努力寻找受益于中国经济长期增长以及近期经济复苏的重大行业与个股的投资机会,以期带来更好的回报。