许继电气（000400）：国家电网入主促使价值再增长

　　许继电气本来就是电网设备行业的市场龙头之一，且是该行业市场化程度最高，相应竞争力最强的企业。本次国家电网通过股权收购的方式实际控股许继集团无疑使公司将成为行业内的霸主，同时，国家电网入主后带来的大量订单，以及为最终实现整体上市而进行的持续性资产注入将保障公司未来持续的高速增长。此变化给公司股票带来的影响是：行业地位增强与业绩显著增长促使估值标准与估值水平的双重提升。因此，盘中行情也已经得到诸多机构投资者的再度价值挖掘。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                             

                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值(元)
09年	10年	11年
安信证券	2009/08/05	买入-B	国家电网收购许继后，必然给许继带来大量的订单。国家电网整合输变电产业，电科院将成为庞大的产业集团，为解决关联交易和同业竞争，许继电气终将成为电科院产业集团整体上市平台。预计对许继电气资产注入分三步走。第一步，许继集团现有输变电资产注入上市公司；第二步，国网为收购许继集团60%股权注入的资产及第一步资产注入后剩余的电力装备资产注入上市公司；第三步，许继电气将成为中国电科院产业资产整体上市平台，对存在关联交易和同业竞争的资产注入到上市公司。每一次资产注入都将增厚许继电气的盈利水平，2012年许继电气的市值有望达到千亿元。	0.74	0.95	1.16	28.00
中信建投	2009/07/27	增持	公司传统业务保持稳步增长，配网业务增长率在30%左右。公司通过向集团定向增发收购换流阀资产后，将同时具备换流阀和控制保护设备生产能力。公司换流阀市场占有率约为40%，控制保护领域市场占有率约为50%。未来几年将是直流输电工程的建设高峰，预计平均每年将有2-3条线路要开工建设，按照设备投资占总项目投资的80%计算，换流阀与控制保护的市场容量分别是20-30、6-7亿元，按换流阀40%、控制保护50%占有率估算，许继每年在直流领域的收入将达到11-15亿元。	0.72	0.88	1.07	26.00
中信证券	2009/07/20	买入	电科院控股许继意在长远，强强联合将诞生直流、二次设备的行业霸主。随着电科院的入主，公司产业整合大戏将逐步拉开。鉴于国网是实际入主，将给公司带来强有力的市场支持和产业整合空间，给公司带来持续的增长潜力。	0.81	1.04	----	30.00
民族证券	2009/07/20	推荐	在09年2月招标的宁东－华东±660kV直流线路和葛沪直流Ⅱ回路设备招标中，电科院获得了2条直流线路的全部4套换流阀订单。因此，电科院入主许继集团将强化公司在直流业务的优势。本次协议中，电科院也将向许继集团注入一块电线电缆业务和铁塔业务。电科院能借助许继电气的平台实现资产整合，无疑将拓展公司的发展空间。	0.70	0.80	0.85	24.00
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.743	0.918	1.03	27.00
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	28.94	23.42	20.87
风 险 提 示
相关股权转让与资产收购事项还需获得国资委、证监会批准。