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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    大单投注站·短线热门股
    朝阳永续:研究显示目标涨幅巨大品种追踪
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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    2009年08月09日      来源:上海证券报      作者:

                        公司近日明确,将进一步推进定向增发收购物产元通。今年以来楼市走暖,也对公司房地产业务构成积极影响。此外,其持股期货公司题材受到关注。近来金融创新话题由创投向期指方向转移,也构成其交易性机会。走势上升趋势完好,可参与。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                公司是大连实德集团旗下的上市公司,主营业务为新型化学建材。旗下全资控股的中宝碳纤维有限公司是国内生产碳纤维制品的大型企业,是国内三大碳纤维制品巨头之一。其斯柏丽系列产品性能优良,具有环保、安全、防潮、隔音、美观、耐用等特点,有着广阔的市场前景。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                 七喜控股(002027)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     豫园商城(600655)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                 公司主要从事计算机及配件生产,还是SONY公司电脑周边设备国内最大代理商。随着国家家电下乡政策落实,电脑产品也列入补贴范围,公司基本面前景受益。同时其还有向生物制药进军的预期。该股盘局已久,目前有独立走强趋势,可跟进。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         公司是一家多元化发展的国内一流的综合性商业集团,也是我国最大的黄金销售企业,持有95%股份的老庙黄金。作为上海本地股,公司旗下拥有2个中国驰名商标、14个上海市著名商标及众多中华老字号和百年老店等为核心的产业品牌资源。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                 永生数据(600613)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     金健米业(600127)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                 公司在贵州神奇集团入主后,主业转向医药,但近年来大股东支持力度不够,基本面业绩好转并不明显。目前上海国资整合大局已定,其再度被整合的预期较强。考虑到其股本较小,股权关系清晰,操作上有一定可行性。该股由此表现较活跃,可把握短线震荡择机介入。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            公司是我国粮食系统的第一家上市公司,是首批农业产业化国家重点龙头企业,国家水稻工程优质米示范基地。在全球通胀预期背景下,大宗商品受到国际资本的热烈追捧,近日期货市场农产品价格日趋强势,未来农产品价格有望在国际资本的推动下大幅上涨。公司作为掌控粮食生产的上游企业将成为价格上涨的最大受益者。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

                        方正集团医药资产整体上市大幕已经拉开,西南合成作为唯一的资产整合平台,未来3-5年方正集团将持续进行资产注入,打造百亿市值的医药航母。从目前情况看,公司2009年实际净利润约为1.5亿元,大新药业实际净利润约为2500-3000万元,按照增发后股本计算,预计2009年EPS为0.69元;给予原料药业务20倍PE的估值,给予制剂业务30倍PE估值,考虑到寸滩土地增值约7.6-9.5亿元,合计市值约为53.3亿元,对应6-12个月目标价20.5元。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         宁夏发电集团入主后,已将发展风力发电产业作为未来重点业务。拥有宁夏及相邻省区可开发利用达500万千瓦的风能资源,成立宁夏银星能源风电设备制造公司,成功完成了首台MWT62-1000A型1MW风电机组的生产任务(国产化率达到70%)。近期市场新能源概念逆势活跃,鉴于该股基本面良好且炒作题材丰富,后市继续下跌空间有限。一旦大盘回稳,该股有望率先反弹,建议在箱底区域可关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                 宜华木业(600978)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     太原重工(600169)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                        出口恢复和产能释放将带动宜华木业业绩超预期增长,预计其2009-2011年EPS分别为0.24、0.31和0.39元。为此,中信证券维持增持评级,目标价提高至7.8元。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     公司作为机械重工行业龙头企业,目标成为全球最大油膜轴承研发制造基地。同时,公司是我国最大的航天发射装置生产基地,国内市场占有率85%。二级市场上,近段时间该股反复震荡消化60日均线的压力,技术上调整较为充分。2009年一季报披露,十大流通股东全部为机构投资者,筹码集中度高,建议关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                 金瑞科技(600390)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     承德露露(000848)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                        金瑞科技将充分受益于电解锰价格快速上涨,下游钢铁产业复苏也有望带来锰价上涨的超预期,预计2009-2011年EPS分别为0.1、0.39和0.5元。申银万国首次评级增持。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         公司是行业龙头,是全国最大的杏仁露生产企业,年生产能力30余万吨,市场占有率90%。今年一季报披露,前十大流通股股东均为机构投资者,筹码集中度较高。近期该股开始尝试向上冲击箱顶,短线在顺势调整后,继续调整空间有限,是调整市道较好的防御品种。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                 点评:(160311)华夏蓝筹的选股思路是在仓位配置结构上紧密遵循了经济复苏的主线,重仓持有银行、地产、机械等强劲复苏的行业。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 点评:兴业全球(163403)的选股思路主要是两点,一是根据基金契约的精神,从全球股票市场发展趋势寻找A股市场具有发展空间的优质品种,因此,该基金对食品饮料等行业予以重点配置;二是从我国产业发展趋势的角度出发,看到了银行股等经济增长的基础产业的成长空间,因此,对金融股等品种也予以了积极关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                 就其重仓股来说,海特高新是我国现代飞机机载设备规模最大、维修设备最全、维修项目最多、客户覆盖面最广的民航维修企业。目前公司签约商务客户已基本涵盖中国国内全部民用航空公司以及其他航空单位,客户数量逐年增加。庞大的客户网络为公司今后的业务拓展打下坚实的基础,而且未来我国飞机保有量的提升也打开了公司成长的空间,可跟踪。而招商地产则在于公司长期形成的卓越品牌效应所带来的产品的溢价效应,故公司的毛利率较高。当然,这也与公司的主导产品定位在中高端产品因素有着较大关联。而南京银行则是因为公司是地方银行,更有利于获得优质贷款项目,比如说城市公用设施、基础设施等,因此,盈利能力乐观,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                就其重仓股来说,凯迪电力目前正在进行着产业转型:一方面是向煤电联营一体化项目方向转化;另一方面则是向电力总承包方向转化。与此同时,公司还拥有电力环保业务,可获得较高估值溢价,可跟踪。而青岛啤酒的优势在于原料成本的下降以及公司管理效率提升所带来的毛利率提升预期,更何况,公司对新收购企业的整合效应也有望释放出来,故短线机会较大,可跟踪。而双汇发展则是因为公司的规模化优势已显现,同时未来的业绩增长趋势也相对乐观,尤其是公司对符合居民消费习惯的食品产业予以重点发展,这有望赋予公司新的成长动能,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                 点评:荷银市值(162209)的选股思路较为突出,存在着一定的趋势投资的思路,即从当前产业政策的思路中寻找投资机会,而由于今年以来的流动性较为充沛,故以充裕流动性推动行业为选择强势的主线,重点增持了金融、房地产、钢铁等行业。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             点评:博时新兴基金(160510)的选股思路特点较为明显,即从产业发展的逻辑思路寻找投资机会,比如说基于今年上半年地产投资启动,故积极跟踪钢铁、建材、机械等直接受益的行业;再比如说预期出口有望在2、3个季度后显著改善,我国具备较强竞争力的白色家电、工程机械等机电行业有望出现较好的投资标的。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                 就其重仓股来说,荣信股份的主打产品SVC是一种电力电子节能产品,下游需求快速增长。同时,公司有两个新利润增长点:一是产业链也渐趋完整,目前公司主打产品SVC 成本结构中,电抗器组占比在27%,电抗器产业化项目将有助于降低公司外购部件比例,提高现有整体装置的毛利率水平;二是公司10kV特大功率变频装置等新产品也有望带来新的利润增长点,可跟踪。而上海汽车则是由于行业销售数据较为乐观,同时由于我国居民收入的增长,未来的销售势头有望延续,故上海汽车的成长性乐观,目前估值有一定引力,可跟踪。而辽宁成大是广发证券影子股,在券商IPO步伐提速以及董正青案渐次尘埃落定的背景下,广发证券借壳上市的前景渐趋明朗,故可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 就其重仓股来说,金山股份在未来的装机容量有望大幅增长,而且机组质量较高,盈利能力与成长性均乐观。与此同时,公司控股股东变更带来整合题材催化剂,目前估值较低,可跟踪。而格力电器目前所面临的市场是境内与境外两个市场,而且随着全球房地产市场的复苏,空调业务的发展趋势较为乐观。因此,公司的成长性或超预期,短线可积极跟踪。而鞍钢股份的优势则在于规模化优势较为清晰,且拥有较为完善产业链,东北的铁矿石资源丰富且靠近海运港口,所以盈利能力较强,建议跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

    申银万国     中大股份(600704)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  大元股份(600146)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        森洋投资
         策略:市场进入中期调整的态势已渐明显,主流资金流出煤炭、有色等大市值蓝筹,但在震荡过程中并不会远离,后市滞涨品种补涨的可能性在增大,建议关注期货概念、上海本地国资整合以及家电消费类品种。     策略:目前需要注意的是将于下周公布的7月份宏观经济数据,若符合或好于市场预期,则市场可能会企稳并重回升势。建议把握市场节奏,注意控制仓位。
    证券通     西南合成(000788)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 银星能源(000862)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        九鼎德盛
         策略:中信建投认为,估值弹性效应正在弱化,而随着经济持续复苏,业绩弹性效应正在显现,其能有效缓解价格压力并提供新的上涨动力。8 月份,看好的行业有证券、银行、房地产、食品饮料、轻工制造、农业、交运设备、建筑建材、机械设备、化工。     策略:近日股指震荡加剧。由于市场前期阶段性上涨较为可观,出现调整在预期之中。操作上,应控制好仓位,暂时多看少动为上。
    华夏蓝筹     华夏蓝筹股票池:(002023)海特高新、(000024)招商地产、(601009)南京银行。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      兴业全球股票池:(000939)凯迪电力、(600600)青岛啤酒 、(000895)双汇发展。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             兴业全球
         策略:该基金在看好经济复苏前景的背景下,延续着高仓位策略,较为充分地享受了市场上涨的收益。而且,该基金将继续密切关注经济复苏的动态,提前布局、灵活操作,在坚持投资理念的基础上,协调处理好长期增长与短期利益间的关系。     策略:该基金认为,虽然市场有起起伏伏,但是只要是真正有业绩支持的、有良好发展前途的公司会得到市场的认同。因此,该基金认为虽然判断流动性推动行情何时结束是非常困难的,但可以保持谨慎的心态进行后续的操作。
    荷银市值     荷银市值股票池:(002123)荣信股份、(600104)上海汽车、(600739)辽宁成大。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      博时新兴股票池:(600396)金山股份、(000651)格力电器、(000898)鞍钢股份。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             博时新兴
         策略:该基金认为目前需要重点关注房地产开工及流动性指标,以观察经济复苏的持续性和市场估值的高低。基于此,近期基本策略是仓位保持相对平稳,重点配置高景气度具有持续性、存在供给瓶颈的行业。     策略:该基金基于宏观经济持续改善的背景,在近期继续保持了较高的股票仓位,组合结构较为稳定,金融地产行业是主要超配的行业,同时,渐次增加了钢铁、火电、航空、电信服务等前期滞涨行业配置。