万向钱潮（000559）：受益产能扩张与行业景气

　　毫无疑问，中国的汽车工业正在进入一个黄金时代，一方面全球汽车工业的产能在不断向中国转移；另一方面汽车在中国已经从高档奢侈用品转化为日常的大件消费品，从而使整个汽车行情正处于高度景气时期，无论是整车企业还是零部件企业的经营业绩均是蒸蒸日上。万向钱潮作为在国内有着长久历史、规模突出、具有一定行业话语权的民营企业也正处在高速增长时期。通过机构深度研究观点清晰可见，一方面公司将通过增发的方式扩大产能；另一方面通过模块化生产与供货的方式强化市场竞争力与扩大市场占有率，在海外市场复苏，国内市场繁荣的时期无疑将促使公司利润大幅增长。该公司的另外一大亮点是股票价格低廉，以目前股价来看恐怕难以符合增发融资需求的，这可能是行情潜在的催化剂。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                 

                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值(元)
09年	10年	11年
东方证券	2009/08/11	买入	下半年，中高级轿车的产品销量将延续最近三个月需求旺盛的局面，同比继续高速增长。为中高级轿车配套的零部件系统的毛利水平将显著好于为经济型轿车配套的产品，因此，销量的持续增长，产品销售结构的变化，将推动公司的盈利水平持续提高。国内汽车行业的供货方式开始向模块化供货方式过渡，公司在汽车底盘系统和传动系统拥有相当的行业影响力，完全有能力向整车厂进行模块化供货，供货方式的转变，将显著提升公司的盈利水平。海外汽车市场的回暖，将对公司的业绩增长产生越来越积极的影响；等速驱动轴等新产品产销规模的不断扩大，将显著改善传统系统产品的盈利水平。下半年国内乘用车产品销量持续超预期，以及海外乘用车市场复苏的速度超出市场预期等将是行情的催化剂。	0.31	0.48	----	10.00
太平洋证券	2009/08/19	增持	本次增发募集资金投资项目为新增年产840 万支等速驱动轴总成固定资产投资项目，计划投资总额为19.4亿元。近两年公司等速驱动轴产品产销每年实现翻番，看好该项目的投资前景。2006年底公司已分别与韩国现代威亚、通用建立了长期战略合作联盟关系，2008年开始实现对其批量供货，预计2011年威亚项目形成320万支的年配套量，通用项目形成100万支的年配套量。公司目前已进入奇瑞、比亚迪、海南马自达、长安、哈飞、上汽通用五菱等国内主机厂配套体系，预计2010年等速驱动轴达到国内配套市场340万支，维修市场120万支左右的销量规模。根据可行性分析报告，项目完全达产后新增年销售收入20.2亿元、利润总额3.1亿元，成为公司新的业务增长点。	0.29	0.47	----	-----
信达证券	2009/08/18	买入	在对公司进行实地调研及与公司管理人员沟通交流后认为，战略能力、技术、装备能力、加工工艺水平以及客户基础等是公司未来业绩持续增长，特别是新项目达至预期的内在保障，预计公司合理增发价格在7.5 元左右。	0.37	0.55	----	8.00
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.323	0.50	----	9.00
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	19.41	12.54	----
风 险 提 示
（1）钢材价格变动影响公司成本；（2）下游整车厂的降价压力加大影响公司利润。