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    机构股票池·中线成长股
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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    2009年09月06日      来源:上海证券报      作者:

                     上海国资整合背景下,该公司以实际控制人上海卢湾区政府为背景,预计同一大股东旗下的商业资产有望注入。另外,其属下古今内衣、天宝龙凤、新光数码等商业连锁也具一定品牌优势。该股中期强势抗跌,明显有增量资金介入,可跟进。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         公司是我国重要的特殊钢生产基地,也是我国国防军工产业配套材料最重要的生产和科研试制基地,目前我国各种现代化武器装备所使用的特钢材料有81%来自抚顺特钢。我国装备制造业长期增长动力强劲,机械工业增长速度加快,为公司提供了广阔的发展空间和难得的机遇。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     金钼股份(601958)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     合肥三洋(600983)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             公司是亚洲最大、国际一流的钼业公司,拥有钼采矿、选矿、焙烧、钼化工和钼金属加工上下游一体化的完整产业链条,从而在有效降低营运成本的同时原料自给率达到100%。公司已控制的钼资源储量达到146.9万吨(金属量),由于钼矿资源的不可再生性,公司资源储量优势十分明显。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                     公司受益于国内洗衣机产品的更新换代潮,此外政府家电下乡补贴政策也构成利好。公司已预告三季报净利同比增长超过60%,而未来受房地产市场复苏滞后影响,公司家电销售增长前景乐观。该股在11-13.5元间盘整,立足中线价值显现,可耐心持有。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                中国中铁(601390)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     公司是中国和亚洲最大的多功能综合型建设集团,作为中国铁路建设市场最大的承包商,参与过中国所有主要铁路的建设,新建、扩建及改建的铁路总里程超过50000公里,占目前中国铁路总营运里程的三分之二以上。公司也是中国的高速公路和公路建设、特大桥和长大隧道建设的龙头企业之一。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                     双良股份(600481)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     公司是国内中央空调行业龙头企业之一,目前正迅速扩大空冷器市场占比,预计未来三年其将占有空冷器市场20%份额。公司在节能设备方面渐成规模,工业余热利用和海水淡化是主题亮点。该股近日围绕60日均线震荡,中线保持强势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                     公司凭借其一体化生产的成本优势、快速的市场响应能力、高质稳定的批量供货能力已经获得了国内外众多设备厂商的认可,上半年又获爱立信全球合格供货商资质认定可以证明。大通证券认为公司将充分受益于全球制造业向中国转移的大趋势,未来市场份额有望提升到30%以上,而2008年还只有12%左右,维持公司“增持”评级。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            公司国家重点高新技术企业,已成为世界上具有相当规模的人胰岛素生产基地之一。公司争取在2010年实现重组人胰岛素产品国内市场占有率50%、国际市场占有率20%的目标。该股近期先于大盘回稳,反复构筑双底形态。目前短期KDJ在低位形成金叉,MACD指标也已向上,技术上已重新走强。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     洪都航空(600316)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             中国联通(600050)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     公司是中航工业集团的防务资产整合平台,现在在上市公司之外的防务资产主要包括枭龙、沈飞和成飞的军用飞机资产。中航工业集团成立后曾宣布三年内完成子公司的整合和整体上市,现在第一年即将过去,未来两年防务资产的整合值得关注。中信建投调升公司投资评级为“增持”。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司下属公司中国联合网络通信有限公司在全国范围内经营WCDMA第三代数字蜂窝移动通信业务,2009年年底前公司将在全国335个城市提供3G服务,计划三年内联通3G业务用户占市场总额20%,并取得整体市场占有率的三分一。近期该股快速回落至年线区域震荡蓄势,后市有反弹空间。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                     中国联通(600050)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             中航光电(002179)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     WCDMA正式商用及IPHONE推出可能在四季度使公司3G用户数快速增长(预计10、11、12月分别为60、80、100万户)。但公司季度盈利不容乐观,3G初期收入尚不能覆盖折旧增量,未来半年除了三季报将是较长的业绩真空期。国信证券建议波段操作,并维持公司“买入”投资评级。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    公司是光、电连接器龙头,拥有完整连接器研发、制造和检测试验体系,是国内规模最大军用连接器制造企业,也是国内同行业中规模最大同时具备研制和生产光、电两类连接器产品专业化企业,并且在国内光器件细分市场中居于领先地位。该股随大盘顺势回落至年线区域震荡,中短期指标已基本调到位,反弹正在酝酿中。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                     点评:中欧趋势(166001)的选股思路主要两个,一是从市场错杀股中寻找投资机会,尤其是那些在危机中不断崭露头角的优质公司。二是以自上而下、灵活的资产配置和行业配置策略,与自下而上的个股选择策略相结合,以寻找优质个股进行重点投资。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             点评:德盛小盘(162502)的选股思路是在行业配置方面保持相对均衡,适当波段操作和行业板块转换,重点跟踪电网、建筑、机械设备等拉动内需政策受益行业,积极把握房地产、金融、钢铁、有色等周期类股票的阶段性投资机会。同时对央企重组、军工、新能源等主题投资个股进行深度挖掘,对一些业绩增长确定性高的细分行业龙头品种进行战略配置。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                     就其重仓股来说,青岛双星的主要优势是成本大幅下降,因为橡胶价格波动对轮胎企业盈利影响较大,而今年上半年橡胶价格处于2003年以来的历史最低水平,轮胎企业的成本上半年大幅降低。同时汽车产业大发展也使轮胎需求旺盛,产品价格提振,所以公司盈利能力持续提升,三季度业绩更为乐观,目前动态市盈率低企;大连友谊的优势在于公司拥有地产业务与商业零售等诸多业务,尤其是地产业务具有较强的发展前景;思源电气的优势则在于公司主导产品符合电网投资方向,比如说在高压、特高压方面的努力将打开公司的成长空间。而由于下游订单饱满,短线业绩成长空间也相对确定。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            就其重仓股来说,国电南自在数字化变电站方面一直处在领先地位,同时在继电保护二次设备以及配网自动化业务方面实力雄厚。公司暗中加快布局智能电网,预计2010年业绩得到释放,而定向增发收购优质资产也会增强估值优势;南京银行的优势主要在于信贷增长过程中强调贷款质量,主要是为城市基础设施配套,因此,在贷款规模增长前提下坏账率并未同步提升,资产质量优异,未来成长性较为确定;中粮地产的优势则在于地产股经过深跌之后明显有资金涌入,短线反弹动能较为强劲。与此同时,公司持有的券商股权也有望获得估值溢价。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                     点评:长盛同德(519039)坚持较为严格的选股标准和相对长期的价值判断,对于组合重仓品种一直从公司内生增长能力、长期公司治理记录、清晰可见的相对竞争优势以及较为放心的公司管理层与公司战略等方面进行评估。因为重仓品种既然买入,就不会考虑在短短的一年内卖出。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     点评:华安成长(160407)的选股思路以投资、消费、出口为主线,遵循经济复苏、行业复苏的脉络进行投资结构调整,关注上游、中游、下游行业的轮动,努力把握投资机会。其中对资源股、基建股的把握较为符合市场趋势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                     就其重仓股来说,电广传媒优势较为突出,一是整体上市预期,电视传播业务前景乐观,因此这赋予公司较高的估值溢价。二是有线电视向数字电视平移过程中也会提升公司的产品结构,拓展公司的成长空间。三是创投概念,公司全资持有深圳达晨创业投资公司股权,而该创投公司投资了大量优质企业股权,公司面临着估值重估动能;东方电气则在于水电、核电、风电等清洁能源类产业发展势头迅猛,有望抵消火电业务订单下滑的压力。且由于清洁能源业务比重提升,公司有望获得更高估值溢价;对于长江电力来说,优势则在于资产注入后的规模更趋庞大,盈利能力更趋稳定,估值优势有所显现。另外,后续的注资预期犹存,故短线机会较大。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            就其重仓股来说,葛洲坝订单饱满且增势良好,未来两年收入增长的确定性强。另外,公司上半年还有部分项目建成投产,有望成为未来新的增长点,其中水泥项目更值得期待。截至目前公司水泥年产能达到1160万吨,预计年底宜城和嘉鱼的水泥新线也有望点火投产。由此可见,充足的合同储备,以及投资项目不断建成投产,为公司可持续发展奠定了坚实基础,未来收入增长确定性较强。经过前期下跌之后,目前估值优势显现,可跟踪;云南白药的优势主要在于公司品牌优势突出,且产品生产线反复扩张,进入到日化领域,发展后劲较足,看好未来的成长空间,可跟踪;西山煤电主要在于煤炭股在前期调整幅度较大,存在着回稳动能。与此同时,目前估值优势明显,且未来产能拓展趋势明朗,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

    申银万国     益民商业(600824)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      抚顺特钢(600399)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 森洋投资
         策略:一周以来市场先抑后扬,总体保持平衡,行情由流动性推动逐渐转入主题和估值推动。可关注上海国资整合、世博受益以及节能环保类品种,未来业绩提升明确的家电行业龙头也可多加留意。     策略:下周开始公布的8月宏观数据会否有超预期的亮点是决定后市走向的重要因素。目前来看宏观数据超预期可能性不大,股指冲高之后可能会弱势调整,回到弱势平衡格局中。建议把握市场节奏,适当进行盘中“高抛低吸”操作。
    证券通     武汉凡谷(002194)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      通化东宝(600867)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 九鼎德盛
         策略:信达证券认为,9月份市场将围绕三条主线展开:抗通胀题材带来的投资机会,金融、资源板块很可能再次受到追捧;估值具有安全边际的个股,主要集中在银行、房地产等行业;部分题材类股机会,创业板、军工板块、新能源等值得关注。     策略:随着周四一根长阳收复半年线,短线市场已震荡走稳。个股板块有一个技术性修正过程,轻仓者可逢低适量博反弹,但切忌一味追涨。
    中欧趋势     中欧趋势股票池:(000599)青岛双星、(000679)大连友谊 (002028)思源电气。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              德盛小盘股票池:(600268)国电南自、(601009)南京银行、(000031)中粮地产。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         德盛小盘
         策略:该基金认为,随着经济复苏的逐步深化,利润改善将由先导行业向中下游行业逐步深化,从而可能导致市场热点迁移,但其过程不可能一蹴而就。因此该基金将审时度势,综合把握资产配置、行业配置和股票选择的机会。     策略:该基金认为在经济复苏过程中,由于流动性充裕将维持相当长一段时间,资产泡沫将难以避免,从而支持证券市场继续上涨。故从经济复苏、资源资产属性和资产盈利能力等几方面考虑,继续增持房地产、金融、煤炭、商业和医药行业等。
    长盛同德     长盛同德股票池:(000917)电广传媒、(600875)东方电气、(600900)长江电力。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              华安成长股票池:(600068)葛洲坝、(000538)云南白药、(000983)西山煤电。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         华安成长
         策略:该基金认为当前A股市场可能正处在一个比较重要的历史阶段,在既定框架下的帕累托改善已经走到尽头,分配的公平、社会的和谐一定会越来越重要,其中给我们带来的投资机会将是全新的,需要努力去把握。     策略:该基金认为目前不排除政策方面出现微调的可能,但是方向性的改变可能还不会出现,故市场仍将充满投资机会。除了强势板块外,该基金也关注医药、钢铁、工程机械、食品饮料、建筑、交通运输等上半年涨幅较落后、相对估值较低的行业。