威孚高科（000581）进入跳跃式增长轨道

　　威孚高科是以汽（柴）油发动机喷油泵与喷油嘴为主营的汽车配件类公司，其产品是汽车最核心的部件，可视为汽车行业“上游的上游”。因此，得益于整个汽车行业的高度繁荣，该公司也进入大幅增长的景气周期。尤其是，在今年第一季度“去库存”完毕后，公司已进入跳跃式增长的轨道。

　　该公司的另外一大特点是，汽车排放标准的不断提高也促使着该公司产品的不断升级，也促成公司产品始终保持着行业领先地位和极高的市场占有率，同时形成了持续性的利润增长点。在目前公司刚刚开始进入新一轮增长周期的时候，得到了诸多机构投资者的较高评价和重点关注。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          (元)
09年	10年	11年
中投证券	2009/08/31	推荐	受结构性减税及汽车下乡等因素影响，公司产品为微客和自主品牌轿车的配套量增长明显加快，09年上半年收入同比增长68%，同时毛利率较上年同期提高5个百分点。09年下半年重卡市场销量估计与上半年持平，但牵引车增长将更快，由于上半年确认了较多的费用，预计博世汽柴全年盈利将达到4亿元左右。	0.44	0.60	0.76	15.00
国金证券	2009/08/29	买入	随着牵引车市场的明显复苏，下半年博世汽柴对公司的业绩贡献将由亏损变为盈利，因此公司下半年业绩仍然存在超预期的可能性。	0.52	0.76	0.80	15.00
海通证券	2009/08/31	增持	虽然1H09博世柴油为公司带来532万元的投资损失，但进入3季度以来公司接单开始出现跳跃式增长，预计博世下半年将销售共轨系统24万套，比上半年增长150%，为威孚带来1.35 亿元的投资收益。	0.53	0.73	---	---
东方证券	2009/08/31	买入	本部的国III 泵产品、喷油器产品已经批量投放市场，由于市场需求的多样性，国II产品依然旺销。当排放标准升级到国IV 阶段，威孚力达有望成为第二个RBCD。	0.50	0.80	---	16.00
中金公司	2009/08/31	中性	预计“轻卡下乡”直接补贴将推动公司下半年收入改善，本部收入和毛利率有望继续好转。下半年物流需求复苏将拉动重卡销量维持高位，在国 IV 标准出台前，高压 共轨系统将受到 EGR系统挑战，市场份额难以实质性提 高。	0.35	0.41	---	---
平安证券	2009/08/29	推荐	下半年重卡市场复苏将有利于公司业绩水平的回升，但收益程度较难判断。预计博世汽柴盈利水平难以达到去年水平，威孚高科的利润增长主要依靠本部及控股子公司经营的改善。	0.55	0.65	---	---
联合证券	2009/08/30	增持	公司上半年盈利结构发生了显著变化，传统盈利主要来源的柴油机业务业绩均不理想，而汽油机业务公司由于轿车市场火爆业绩大幅攀升，成为主要盈利来源。	0.49	0.70	1.10	---
山西证券	2009/08/31	增持	公司垄断了为高端轻卡配套的 VE泵市场，并且在轻卡用I型泵市场上占有40%多的份额，因此轻卡行业整体在下半年的平稳发展也将为公司业绩恢复奠定基础。	0.48	0.55	---	---
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.483	0.65	0.887	15.33
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	21.74	16.15	11.84
风 险 提 示
1）商用车产品销量低于预期的风险； 2）原材料价格上涨速度超出预期的风险。