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      | 4版:大智慧机构股票池
    机构股票池·中线成长股
    大单投注站·短线热门股
    证券通:研究显示一致预期大幅调高品种追踪
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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    2009年09月20日      来源:上海证券报      作者:

                     公司制药主业增长稳健,上半年营业收入同比增81.49%,净利润同比增13.37%。大股东上海医工院受让二股东制剂中心所持股权事宜已启动,未来有望将优质资产注入上市公司。该股近来突破盘局,中期上升通道已经形成,可在五日均线附近吸纳。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             公司大股东大显集团涉足网络通信、太阳能、手机等多个产业。目前公司是以现代电子加工产业为基础,以房地产开发和金融投资为两翼,以能源开发和其他领域投资为价值增长点的大型控股公司。公司旗下拥有证券、信托、期货、商业银行、金融租赁等股权投资,是两市最正宗的金融控股集团。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 四川成渝(601107)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                     双良股份(600481)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         公司是西部大型高速公路投资、营运及管理公司,同时也是中国西部唯一的基建类H股上市公司。公司成立十余年来已经由成渝高速公路单一资产发展成为全资拥有和控股、参股多条收费公路的大型企业,资产规模和收入水平高居四川省除母公司川高公司外的各高速公路营运公司之首。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                     公司是国内中央空调行业龙头企业之一,目前正迅速扩大空冷器市场占比,预计未来三年其将占有空冷器市场20%的份额。公司还在节能设备领域渐成规模,工业余热利用和海水淡化是主题亮点。该股近日沿五日均线上行,量能温和放出,可介入。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 特变电工(600089)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司是重大装备制造业龙头之一,是我国重大装备制造业的骨干企业,拥有对外经济技术合作经营权和国家外援项目建设资质。此外,公司合资设立的新疆新能源公司是我国目前规模较大的专业从事太阳能开发和利用的高新技术企业之一。新能源受国家政策扶持,未来发展空间较大。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                     长电科技(600584)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     公司是国内半导体第一大封装生产基地,近来电子元器件行业受益出口复苏,公司业绩回升可以预期。同时公司拥有的顶尖军工芯片科技等也成为催化剂,中报显示社保基金介入,机构看好带来股性活跃。该股近日放量连续涨停突破前期高点,短线仍可参与。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                     为近一步扩展公司业务规模,公司与知名房地产开发企业成立项目合作公司,以控制成本的方式为公司增加项目投资,弥补了公司储备略少的短板。东方证券首次推荐公司,予“增持”投资评级。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             公司是抗生素龙头,是国内最大的抗生素类医药产品生产基地,抗生素原料药总产量占全国总产量15%左右,粉针制剂的年生产能力达22亿支,居全国第一位。近期该股在年线上方反复震荡蓄势较为充分,技术指标已基本调整到位,且盘中资金试盘动作较为明显,建议关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 方圆支承(002147)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                     国电电力(600795)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         公司是我国规模最大的回转支承企业之一,为主要工程机械配套的回转支承销售收入占回转支承总销售收入80%以上,公司同时进军风电回转支承领域。2009年中报披露,前十大流通股股东以机构投资者为主,合计持有流通盘31.88%,筹码较集中。近期该股在反复震荡构筑双底结构后量能开始明显放大,活跃度有所提高。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                     公司战略重组英力特集团,长期看很有积极意义;公司加大对资源的开发和控制力度,使产业能持久有效的运作;且拥有的水电、煤电一体项目均可作为优质资产注入上市公司。华泰证券维持公司“增持”投资评级。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             用友软件(600588)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司是亚太本土第一大企业管理软件供应商,也是中国最大的独立软件供应商。公司在中国管理软件市场的市场占有率为21.3%,连续七年成为中国市场占有率最高的管理软件厂商。公司业绩稳定增长且动态市盈率仅20倍,作为科技股中的一员,是投资和投机两相宜的品种,盘中宽幅震荡时可关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                     精功科技(002006)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     公司业绩弹性高,有望明显受益于中国光伏政策的推进。产业需求回暖明显,实现盈利可能性提高。而且公司新产品为公司进一步打开发展空间。中金公司首次推荐公司,予“买入”的投资评级。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                     点评:金鹰小盘(162102) 的选股思路是关注新能源、新技术和新材料等适应中国经济可持续发展和长期科技竞争力的个股,同时顺应经济复苏行业受益逻辑,重点配置金融、地产、有色、煤炭、钢铁、化工等周期类行业内的优质品种。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         点评:嘉实成长(160701)的选股思路主要是围绕核心行业的成长路径选择强势股进行投资。就目前来看,房地产投资快速回升将拉动实体经济中的相关行业景气复苏,其中煤炭、金属等基础原料和工程机械、家电等制造业将明显受益。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                     就其重仓股来说,华工科技通过产业梳理突现主业、集中资源,最终将激光、光器件、电子元器件、信息安全与防伪等四大业务模块确定为核心支柱产业。在产业梳理到位背景下,通过光器件、元器件产业等产业带动,公司可能正处于发展拐点阶段,2009年有超出预期机会。而且该股目前拥有配股含权以及A股市场科技股活跃的双重刺激因素,可跟踪;                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    就其重仓股来说,长园集团主营业务发展正得到3G、高速铁路、电网建设等领域订单的有效提振,其PTC电路保护元件在3G手机领域运用广泛,长园维安产品市场占有率相当高。“十一五”期间国家将加大电网建设的投资力度,国家电网公司和南方电网公司规划的电网投资总额合计为1.2万亿元,而长园是国内少数能够生产110KV全冷缩电缆附件的厂家之一,发展前景乐观;北京银行由于背靠环渤海经济区域的快速发展,贷款规模增速较为乐观,成为今年弹升行情中率先翻番的银行股,折射出资金深度介入,目前估值优势犹存;西山煤电的优势则在于公司产能持续拓展,尤其是内蒙古区域的煤炭新增产能更是有望成为公司新的利润增长点,发展势头不错。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                        杉杉股份的优势则在于金融股权投资、服装、新能源以及资源业务发展前景迅猛,尤其是新能源与资源业务,目前估值略偏低,可积极跟踪;                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                        诚志股份的优势则在于公司切入到电子元器件业务后,盈利能力的弹性大大提升。近期明显有资金深度介入,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                     点评:鹏华治理(160611)的选股思路主要是根据市场投资偏好进行强势股的选择,就目前来看,该基金认为目前A股市场将由估值恢复行情向业绩改善行情演变,业绩超预期的公司和行业将成为下一步投资重点。故一方面继续重点关注有相对估值优势的金融、地产等行业,另一方面提前布局一些基本面逐渐转好的行业和公司。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         点评:中欧趋势(166001)的选股思路主要是依据趋势投资,认为对结构性、波段性投资机会的灵活把握可望成为获取超额收益的主要源泉。故在行业把握中,认为随着经济复苏的逐步深化,利润改善将由先导行业向中下游行业逐步深化,从而可能导致市场热点的迁移。如果能循着热点迁移路线进行投资,就有望获得不错的收益。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                     就其重仓股来说,新潮实业开始对略显庞杂的业务进行剥离,形成以房地产和电缆为主导的产业架构。公司地产业务价值较高,现有地产储备集中在烟台,项目规划建筑面积合计201万平米。其中天越湾按目前均价12000元/平米计算,预计可贡献权益净利润18亿元。此外,公司拥有的跑马场是较为独特的资产,未来盈利可观;中国神华主要优势在于两点,一是产业链优势,从煤到电再到煤化工,赋予抗行业周期风险能力。二是产能扩张,无论是煤炭还是电力均有产能扩张趋势;城投控股的优势则在于公用事业属性带来稳定的现金流,为公司的房地产业务提供源源不断的现金流,目前估值优势明显。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 就其重仓股来说,同方股份开始向注重正确的战略规划和合理的产业布局过渡。在信息传输服务领域,公司从设备和系统提供到运营服务(包括IPTV)、内容提供和其他增值服务的各个环节均具有一定的技术和资源优势,未来3-5年有望取得长足发展。此外,公司还存在着参股公司创业板上市以及获得“核高基”政府补贴等方面的利好预期;大连友谊的优势也相对突出,主要是地产业务有望在近年来成为公司业绩增长点,且未来仍有望围绕着大连地产业务发展寻找新的土地储备;思源电气在于下游需求相对旺盛,而且公司产品符合国家电网投资方向,因此,业绩与成长性均较为突出。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

    申银万国     现代制药(600420)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  大连控股(600747)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     森洋投资
         策略:目前大盘反弹接近关键阻力位,震荡加大主题品种成为主角。可关注有明确资产注入预期的上海本地股、新能源和出口复苏、军工等题材品种,些类个股有进一步补涨空间,应加以重视。     策略:市场即将进入10月份,将面临新的解禁股高峰以及创业板开启,行情将面临新的供求压力。再加上市场中一部分资金可能要在国庆长假期间回避风险撤出市场,下周大盘大幅上涨的可能性较小。
    证券通     栖霞建设(600533)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  华北制药(600812)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     九鼎德盛
         策略:国泰君安9月份强烈建议超配机械设备、建筑材料、建筑施工、钢铁行业。此外,将当月配置比例与上月配置进行对比,根据变动确定行业投资评级(上调配置比例超过0.2个百分点为增持,下调配置比例超过0.2个百分点为减持)。     策略:市场在回补了3000点上方缺口后盘中震荡明显加剧,后市有望维持区间震荡格局。投资者在操作上对短期涨幅较大的品种可逢高减仓,手中持有的累计涨幅不大的品种可继续持有,同时要控制好仓位。
    金鹰小盘     金鹰小盘股票池:(000988)华工科技、(600884)杉杉股份、(000990)诚志股份。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          嘉实成长股票池:(600525)长园集团、(601169)北京银行、(000983)西山煤电。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            嘉实成长
         策略:该基金近期主要从上涨滞后板块中寻找尚未反映经济复苏的强周期中小盘股,或先行调整的高成长预期个股进行投资。并认为如果流动性出现紧缩或经济复苏可持续性遭遇挑战,应适当降低仓位,以应对高位大幅波动风险。     策略:该基金认为,从估值上看补缺行情接近尾声,但趋势投机将逐步向价值投资转变。因此,该基金将关注虚拟经济繁荣后对实体经济的拉动作用,密切跟踪经济复苏的实际状况和市场估值水平,增加组合进攻的同时保持配置部分长期成长股。
    鹏华治理     鹏华治理股票池:(600777)新潮实业、(601088)中国神华、(600649)城投控股。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          中欧趋势股票池:(600100)同方股份、(000679)大连友谊、(002028)思源电气。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            中欧趋势
         策略:近来该基金认为虽然上市公司基本面逐渐向好,但是上市公司的业绩较难跟上股价上涨步伐,估值相对较贵,因此选择了减仓,加大了公用事业以及社会服务业的配置,以应对后市可能来临的调整。     策略:该基金根据市场形势变化对投资组合的调整也进行了转化,如超配电力设备、水泥等基建投资主题行业和汽车等产业振兴主题,取得了相对不错的收益。与此同时,将投资组合转为相对均衡的行业配置,规避了市场短线波动所带来的风险。