• 1:头版
  • 2:要闻
  • 3:焦点
  • 4:财经中国
  • 5:财经海外
  • 6:观点·专栏
  • 7:公 司
  • 8:公司纵深
  • 9:公司·融资
  • 10:调查·公司
  • 11:特别报道
  • 12:人物
  • A1:市 场
  • A2:市场新闻
  • A3:机构动向
  • A4:资金观潮
  • A5:信息披露
  • A6:信息披露
  • A7:市场趋势
  • A8:市场评弹
  • A9:数据说话
  • A10:一周策略
  • A11:公司巡礼
  • A12:特别报道
  • B1:披 露
  • B4:产权信息
  • B5:信息披露
  • B6:信息披露
  • B7:信息披露
  • B8:信息披露
  • B9:信息披露
  • B10:信息披露
  • B11:信息披露
  • B12:信息披露
  • B13:信息披露
  • B14:信息披露
  • B15:信息披露
  • B16:信息披露
  • B17:信息披露
  • B18:信息披露
  • B19:信息披露
  • B20:信息披露
  •  
      2009 9 22
    前一天  
    按日期查找
    A10版:一周策略
    上一版  下一版  
    pdf
     
     
     
      | A10版:一周策略
    维稳预期PK资金压力 震荡或加大
    券商研究显示最具成长性品种追踪
    信息解读
    本周行业看台:旅游行业
    更多新闻请登陆中国证券网〉〉〉
     
     
    上海证券报网络版郑重声明
       经上海证券报社授权,中国证券网独家全权代理《上海证券报》信息登载业务。本页内容未经书面授权许可,不得转载、复制或在非中国证券网所属服务器建立镜像。欲咨询授权事宜请与中国证券网联系 (400-820-0277) 。

     
    标题: 作者: 正文: 起始时间: 截止时间:
      本版导航 | 版面导航 | 标题导航 收藏 | 打印 | 推荐  
    维稳预期PK资金压力 震荡或加大
    2009年09月22日      来源:上海证券报      作者:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                风险因素主要来自于资金供求关系的变化。如果监管层显著加快股票的供给速度,将对市场造成较大的资金压力。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     市场认为在房地产销量不明确+流动性不如上半年情况下,下半年股市将呈现宽幅震荡格局,我们对此的看法是:1、股市资金来源已经发生改变,之前市场的资金面主要来源于违规信贷资金的入市,而未来的资金面将主要来自于储蓄搬家+巨额贸易顺差导致的基础货币投放+人民币中长期升值预期下的热钱流入。2、地产+银行成为稳定市场的基石,其他周期类行业催化剂因素转为正面可以促使市场进入到新一轮上涨期的第一阶段。

         建议“抓上下,放中间”,上游关注煤炭和贵金属稀有金属等资源股,下游关注医药、商业、农业、旅游、家电、银行、券商,主题投资关注低碳经济等。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         长期宏观政策的维稳还需要看后续动作的延续性:从大的方面来看,十七届四中全会发布的公告称仍将保持宏观经济政策连续性和稳定性,但是这种维持稳定性与年初的宏观前提条件有所区别,一是年初银行高额的超额准备金,良好的资本充足率,下半年这些条件难比上半年。二是上半年高额的信贷投放使得监管层担心银行风险显现。三是目前的经济形势比上半年好。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         在投资策略上,建议投资者采取比较积极的策略,投资机会上短期内我们继续看好电子信息和黄金板块,电力、水泥、工程机械在四季度也将会有良好表现。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     根据浙商证券的基金仓位监测模型,偏股型开放式基金平均仓位由前一周的76.30%上升至77.27%,上升幅度为0.97个百分点。剔除市值波动对基金仓位的影响,基金主动增仓1.09个百分点,有近六成基金采取主动增仓操作。上周五上证指数跌破3000点,但是基金出现主动增仓现象,这在一定程度上说明基金整体上对于市场后期走势态度有所转变。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             由于总体上看流动性最宽裕阶段暂告一段落,因此未来重点关注业绩稳定成长的行业。我们建议在配置方面攻守兼备,周期类里面业绩稳定增长者和部分消费品都可以配置。具体而言,我们重视银行、地产、汽车、工程机械、煤炭以及部分消费品如服装、医药、食品饮料等行业的配置。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         首先,8月份宏观经济数据显示中国经济复苏的内生动力在不断增强,经济二次探底的可能性越来越小。其次,基金史无前例的建仓高潮将出现,上周诺安成长优势、南方中证500、交银180治理ETF与大摩领先优势4只新基金结束发行加入建仓行列后,9月份预计将共有14只基金进入建仓期,其中包括9只指数型基金。再次,截至2009年9月14日,共有608家上市公司发布三季度业绩预告,其中279家业绩报喜,实现扭亏的有43家。上市公司三季度业绩继续改善的确定性进一步拓宽市场估值空间。此外,截至周上五收盘,58只A-H股中有10只A股价格低于H股。依据H股市场国际资本成熟投资理念的相对理性,说明A股市场投资价值仍在提升。

         从目前看,9月第四周市场应该是震荡调整格局,但在压力和维稳共同作用下,调整幅度不会太大,下破2800点难度较大,大概率运行区间点位为2840-3000点。如果指数逼近2800点,投资者可介入,板块主选券商、创投、医药等。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     上周指数主要围绕3000点整数关口震荡整理,成交金额逐渐放大,消化了部分高仓位基金的减仓压力。10月份有2.03万亿市值的大小非解禁,虽然工行、中石化、上港集团等公司大股东抛售的可能性不大,但还是将给市场带来较大的心理压力。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    权重蓝筹在提前调整后将在本周企稳,有望带动大盘在本周结束调整。建议投资者在技术性回调期间控制好仓位,关注业绩增长确定、成长性好的板块与个股。短线投资者仍可把握物联网、国庆概念、消费旅游、甲型流感和航天军工等主题投资的炒作。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             行业选择方面,基于对市场近期总体走势的判断,我们推荐内需中盈利改善趋势明确的行业,包括消费相关板块。我们在此期周报中也重点分析了盈利披露期前后可能具有阶段性机会的部分中游行业。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             创业板所占主板市值的比例各个国家都不是很大,最大的韩国为10%,而中国香港还不到1%,A股中小板市值占总市值的5%左右,因此从全球来看,创业板都不会对主板市场产生决定性的影响。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             由于国庆节之前创业板不会登陆A股市场,预计在中国国旅发行后资金仍将回流二级市场,有望促成市场止跌回升。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    8 月份美国零售额增长2.7%,超出预期,零售额企稳迹象明显,但强劲复苏预计要在明年才能出现。中美经济周期暂时的不同步导致中国的A股市场存在一个过渡期,所以在美国经济触底之后补库存之前,我们的市场有一个等待的静默期。这个过渡期并不会像2008年的情况,正如我们所看到的经济数据,企业情况正在好转,因此市场并不缺乏热点,但是从整体来看市场仍然存在调整压力。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             大盘运行到60日均线处受明显打压,出现一根长阴线。大盘在连日反弹后有技术调整需求,短线丰厚的获利盘抛售,消息面带来的资金分流,都将给大盘带来压力。后市宜关注主力资金能不能再度介入以及各大权重板块能否回暖,如果资金未持续介入、权重股未重新企稳,那么投资者宜保持相应的谨慎操作思维。

    国元证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    江海证券看 空                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                中原证券看 平                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 银河证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         国信证券看 多

    从技术面角度看,A股周K线处在上有10周均线压制、下有5和20周均线支撑的区间内,日K线则60日均线和缺口位置构成压力。形态分析,3180颈线位置将是决定市场属于B浪反弹还是反转的关键点位。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     经济转型过程中自下而上投资机会的选择国内消费启动特征明显,但是由于中游制造业和上游原材料行业占的权重比较大,以及银行的持续扩张能力短期受到抑制及潜在的风险,指数短期难以有良好表现。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             技术面上,随着8月17日沪指3039-3020点的向下跳空缺口被回补,60日均线处(3086点附近)反压开始呈现,上周的高点就明显受到该压力线的反压,而7月29日3454高点和8月4日3478高点的双头颈线位3174点对股指上行构成极强的上档压力。行情在没有新刺激因素前提下短期反弹空间在收敛与压缩,但由于有维稳行情的特定背景,意味着月内的行情可能会在2900点附近出现滞涨但不会显著走弱。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 由于经济不会出现二次探底,强劲回升的经济给投资者增加了信心,而流动性也将保持合理充裕,投资者对流动性的担忧也会逐渐消失。在上市公司业绩快速回升背景下,市场的估值水平也将进一步提高,市场运行中枢上移。我们预计第四季度A股市场将震荡上行,上证综指有望突破前期反弹高点。如果经济、流动性和业绩发展的良好趋势得以延续,则股指可能向更高的目标3800-4000点发起冲击。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         我们认为市场已经进入新一轮上升期的第一阶段,超配行业为先导行业汽车、出口复苏受益的IT硬件与设备、化纤、家电、机械设备以及美元短期贬值趋势确立而受益的黄金股板块;未来随着地产销量环比上升趋势的明确,市场将逐步进入上涨期的第二阶段,超配的行业将转变为房地产、银行、汽车。我们认为到10月上旬,地产销量将可能出现比较明显的环比上升趋势。

         我们认为8月份月K线的跌幅意味着反弹收复之路的反复和漫长,我们倾向于认为股指在构筑右肩后有望再度上攻3000点乃至60日均线。第一,在中石油和银行股靠拢60日均线过程中指数重返3000点悬念不大。第二,中小板个股作为乐观情绪的先行者,中小板指数上周已接近历史高点。第三,中冶上市后走高可能性较大,将对指数形成贡献。第四,从国际市场看,风险偏好情绪也在不断上升。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         短期市场扩容压力不断出现:创业板首批十三家上市公司获批,尽管创业板总体分流压力不大,但是金融地产的融资热潮从预期逐步演变为事实的操作,说明了市场扩容压力大增。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 虽然市场局部热点层出不穷,尤其是物联网概念活跃,但此概念炒作究竟会持续多久,其实较难把握。操作策略:反弹遇阻,保持谨慎。在8个月左右的强劲表现之后,强周期板块中期继续跑赢大盘的可能性也在明显降低,后市热点将逐渐转向包括大消费在内的弱周期和业绩稳定板块,建议关注旅游、商业零售板块,创投概念股。

    国盛证券看 平                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    民生证券看 平                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                浙商证券看 平                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 招商证券 看 平                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        渤海证券看 多

    当前市场处在“维稳”和“融资抽血”的夹缝之中,这种格局在短期内不会被打破。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         随着节日临近,市场反弹压力愈见明显。政策面,四中全会虽强调延续宽松的宏观政策,但“微调”在保持性质不变情况下仍有空间。基本面,贸易保护主义抬头,虽然是损人不利己,但重工业化的中国作为出口大国更为不利,钢铁、纺织、造纸等行业能否享受到国际经济复苏的好处值得怀疑。国际股市近期表现强劲,但其影响从两方面看,从出口基本面看,如果没有反倾销等事件,外贸环境的好转还会继续,出口企业基本面会有较大改善。但从股市联动看,关联性不一定很强,无论是国内经济还是股市,这轮都早于国际市场3-6个月时间。总体上,节前市场经过调整后可能出现观望气氛,投资者亦需保持谨慎。                                                                                                                                                                                万科股东大会通过再融资方案,以及浦发银行增发方案获证监会批准,引起了市场对于扩容的担忧。我们预计2009年9-12月实施再融资方案需要的资金为800-1200 亿元。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             中级调整的本质来源于中外经济周期的不同步,7、8月份内需数据反复修正了市场预期并造成市场上下波动,我们发现投资者对未来房地产销售、明年一季度后的经济趋势、创业板开闸和再融资对流动性的影响等方面仍然存在明显的疑虑或模糊。但我们认为,真正需要等待和判断的是经济复苏第四环节的快慢和强弱,外需复苏后可以通过多种效应强化内需。而短期内市场仍处于第三、四环节之间的过渡期,快速反弹之后再现震荡反复概率较大。中期内,四季度至明年一季度之间市场有望出现一轮反弹行情。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         对于趋势判断,我们认为应该从高处着眼,不能仅仅局限于眼前困境,应该抓住市场运行的主要矛盾方面。

         过度的炒作、大量的解套盘和获利盘,大盘上周五以异常暴力的方式宣泄着做空压力。权重股上攻乏力下题材股引致的市场“虚火”需要震荡调整来补偿元气。上周指数站上了3000点,突破了反弹通道上轨,回补了前期下跌缺口,并且无限逼近60日均线,这些均构成技术压力位。但是也存在如30日均线、2900点、2843下方的下跌跳空缺口等技术支撑位。美元指数存在反弹要求,美股、港股和黄金等存在震荡回调可能。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 从市场策略看,还是选择非周期防御行业,比如旅游、零售食品、信息传媒等行业。从板块选择上,由于创业板的到来,中小市值股票受估值带动可能性较大。

    东北证券看 平                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    德邦证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                中金公司 看 空                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                长江证券 看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         太平洋证券看 平

    9月前3周的反弹得到了较好的基本面支持,但我们始终强调这轮反弹是更多依赖经济复苏带来的业绩缓慢回升的单引擎驱动,缺乏流动性充裕的支持,上证指数在反弹到3000点上方将面临前期没有顺利出逃机构的减仓压力。在经济逐渐向好的同时,主板IPO、再融资、创业板开闸、国际版规划,未来股市的融资压力日益显著。尽管目前基金发行仍处在高峰期,但与融资需求相比,期望大盘重现类似6、7月份的资金推动型行情并不现实。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    上周五大盘未能在3000点上方站稳并大幅回落显示3000点岛型反转上方套牢盘巨大(沪市6.54万亿),由于该点位同时也是8.24和8.26两次上攻失败并引发大盘破位下跌的重要阻力关口,因此上周五的回调仍属于正常的技术调整范畴,并未破坏大盘自2639点以来的反弹格局。本次调整应是对前期连续反弹的技术修复,预计本周将向下再度考验20日均线和半年线支撑。我们认为有效击穿半年线的概率很低,20日均线(2910点附近)下方应是中短线建仓较好的时机。大盘更有可能在120线(2856点)附近止跌并构筑头肩底的右肩部位。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         上周五一天的大幅下挫表明市场情绪依然脆弱。展望未来,政策面上,十七届四中全会透露出要保持宏观经济政策连续和稳定;基本面上,未来两周将是经济数据的真空期,各地房地产成交量等数据将成为市场关注的重点。另外,国庆假期临近,市场也将非常关注黄金周的消费表现,可能也会给消费相关板块提供一定的支持。综合来看,市场仍将延续震荡走势,国庆长假之前市场波动可能加大。一个可能的风险因素是海外市场的表现,自7月中旬以来海外市场已经连续上涨两个多月的时间,风险在逐步累积。如果其短期调整,将给A股走势带来一定的负面影响。                                                                                                                                                                                                                上周市场情绪很高,除了周四舆情每天都在70以上,而且分歧也不大。在周五跳水之前,市场走势和人气都很乐观。从历史数据来看,本周行情上涨概率较大。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             从目前情况来看,宏观政策动态微调、供求关系变化预期等因素并没有发生实质性改变。题材股的炒作虽然可以增加短期市场活跃度,但从资金性质和炒作题材的时效性看,快进快出的短线操作手法明显,市场目前缺乏能带动大盘的持续性热点,预计节前行情或将以震荡为主。

         在完成一轮恢复性反弹后,未来一段时期市场将呈现围绕3000点来回震荡格局。预期四季度上证指数核心区间将在2700-3200点之间。在这样一个范围内,采取波段操作和寻找局部性机会将是未来主要的投资策略。本周我们重点关注:云南白药、江铃汽车、东百股份、酒鬼酒、光大证券、国电电力和东方电气。