时代新材（600458）：受益两大景气行业 后市成长性可期

　　公司是国内铁路尤其是高铁建设的最大受益者，随着高铁建设的展开，公司的业绩也将得到不断体现。在铁路器材业务之外，公司也已进入风电建设的上游叶片产业，并已具备行业竞争力,还获得了下游重点公司的认可与定单，产能规模预计将不断扩大，使公司后几年的业绩增长更具持续性。

　　公司所处的行业景气度高涨,公司的竞争力、业绩的增长潜能等复合优势使得该公司已经为诸多机构投资者众所关注，并可能成为机构将配置的重点。未来随着公司业绩的持续增长、机构关注力度不断增强,该股的整体走势将不断向好。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值(元)
09年	10年	11年
海通证券	2009/10/13	买入	风电叶片09年订单充足，除与南车新签的1.1亿订单外，还给华仪电气、浙江韵达等供货约几十套风电叶片，预计10年公司将获得300套以上叶片的订单，金额应超过3 亿元。此外，公司与湘电股份达成合作协议，开发2MW 以上的风电叶片，并储备海上风机大型叶片技术。10年及以后2年公司将迎来高铁的逐步竣工，公司目前具技术优势并批量生产的CA砂浆、弹性铁垫板、轨道减震器等将体现大量利润，公司目前正在实验高铁线路阻尼材料等新产品，预计在明后年也逐步产生收入和利润，新产品不断推出将带动公司毛利率稳中有升。	0.48	0.78	1.12	--
长江证券	2009/10/09	推荐	未来五年是高铁建设的高潮，车辆与线路配件需求大幅增长，公司产品部分为独家生产，为主要供应商，将充分受益高速铁路的大发展。南车集团的发展战略是形成贯穿叶片、电磁线、电机等关键部件以及整机生产地完整产业链条，公司风机叶片业务将充分受益。增发主要用于扩大弹性元件、风电叶片和特种电磁线生产能力，公司已经利用自有资金及银行贷款建设大部分项目，生产能力有望在较短时间内获得明显提升。预计增厚10年EPS约0.10元。	0.48	0.75	1.05	20.25
财富证券	2009/09/18	推荐	时代新材凭借高分子复合材料领域的研发技术优势，在轨道交通上进行成功应用，开发出一系列弹性元件产品，是该领域的龙头企业，目前主要业务来源于弹性元件，充分分享铁路建设高峰带来的利润增长，同时公司开始涉足风电叶片领域，并在短短时间内迅速发展，二者将构成支撑未来公司持续增长的主要业务。	0.52	0.78	1.06	--
中信证券	2009/09/14	买入	政府家大高铁投资将拉动公司减振弹性元件的需求，结合海外业务的开拓预计公司减振弹性元件未来三年年均收入增长率将达到30%以上。预计年内公司风电叶片可实现销售100套以上，远超市场预期，明年有望实现300套以上的销售规模。其他业务向高铁和风电产业链延伸，将成为新的利润增长点。	0.40	0.80	1.05	20.00~24.00
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.47	0.778	1.07	21.13
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	31.91	19.28	14.02
风 险 提 示
（1）风电行业竞争加剧，产能相对过剩，存在毛利率水平下降的风险；（2）定向增发投入的四个项目因为增发获批时间晚于预期，可能影响项目进展和利润释放。