中青旅（600138）：三大业务齐增 投资价值凸现

　　旅游、股权投资、房地产是中青旅的三大主营业务，因此在去年全球金融危机中受到较大影响而出现业绩滑坡。但今年的形势完全不同，股权价值大涨、旅游业务受惠于刺激内需、房地产业务更是赶上景气周期，使公司的盈利能力大幅增强。更重要的是，明年世博会的举行，将使该公司的旅游业务、会展业务迎来迅猛增长的黄金期。因此，无论是已有业绩给予现有估值水平所显示的防御性，还是世博举行赐予的增长潜力，该公司目前的估值是显著低估的。相比较50倍市盈率发行、70倍市盈率上市的同类公司中国国旅的估值，该股的投资价值无疑会得到进一步的体现。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              (元)
09年	10年	11年
广发证券	2009/10/19	买入	三季度以来，入境游接待游客情况出现复苏的迹象，同比下降幅度有所收窄，公民游业务则呈现稳定增长。会展服务业务有望超越08年高峰业绩，随着2010年世博会的召开以及全球经济的回复，会展服务业务2010年-2011年增长幅度分别为10%、15%。乌镇景区业务将达到30%以上增长速度，房地产业务09年结算速度超预期，郑州绿城百合公寓、德清桂花城、德清西子百合三个项目处于回报收益期，预计2009年将结算完毕三个项目的大部分。福彩业务将继续保持稳定增长。	0.55	0.57	0.67	14.25
凯基证券	2009/09/28	增持	入境游业务将因全球复苏转佳，会展旅游与乌镇旅游业务将大幅受惠于2010年世博会。预计2010年乌镇旅游业务营收增长34%。公司现有房地产项目销售良好，慈溪房地产项目即将开始预售，由于市场已回暖，此项目可提供公司房地产业务未来3-4年增长，预估2009-11 每年房地产营收至少10亿元，贡献公司获利20%以上。公司2009-2011年每股收益年复合增长率有望达到28.8%。	0.52	0.55	0.67	14.34
方正证券	2009/09/11	增持	通过中青旅联盟、自由行事业部等方面的工作，公司旅行社业务逐渐体现出独到的经营特色，同时在管理规范和管理手段方面走在业内的前列。相比较主要竞争对手，公司在业务的综合性以及产品设计上有明显的优势。乌镇的成功经营给公司未来的发展道路增加了一种选择，公司也提出了做旅游资源运营商的战略目标。公司持有的金融资产公允价值变动也对公司业绩形成一定的影响。	0.50	0.55	0.62	--
招商证券	2009/09/04	审慎推荐	地产业务已经成为业绩的一大保障。未来两年，郑州项目将成为地产业务的主要利润来源，其3、4 期都将于未来两年结算；慈溪项目将于今年开盘，预计2011年将逐步结算，可以保证2011年后3年左右的利润。按照目前国内的彩票发行和分配机制，公司彩票业务收入大约相当于当地彩票销售总额的3-4%。彩票业务到期后存在续约可能，公司正在积极争取。乌镇分拆上市已迈出重要一步，若能成功将会成为股价上涨催化剂。	0.51	0.60	0.67	15.00~18.00
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.52	0.57	0.66	15.03
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	24.19	22.07	19.06
风 险 提 示
（1）甲型H1N1流感的扩散可能抑制国内旅游需求；（2）全球经济的恢复情况与旅游业发展正相关。