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      | 4版:大智慧机构股票池
    机构股票池·中线成长股
    大单投注站·短线热门股
    证券通:研究显示一致预期大幅调高品种追踪
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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    2009年10月25日      来源:上海证券报      作者:

                公司是煤化工龙头企业之一,拥有甲醇生产和甲醇制二甲醚技术。目前低碳经济主题走俏,公司变压吸附气体分离技术是亮点,可进一步关注中美清洁能源务实合作战略对其影响。走势上升楔形整理面临突破,可参与。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司主要从事生物化学产品、试剂、医疗器械和医疗诊断产品的开发销售及提供生物四技服务,已成为拥有药品制造、诊断产品、医疗器械和医药流通四大业务板块,有20多个药品进入医保目录,并且已经打开了国际化道路,发展前景看好。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                益民商业(600824)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 华电国际(600027)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                上海国资整合政策已定,公司同一大股东旗下的商业资产在未来有预期注入,未来世博商机更有提升业绩的看点。半年报显示,介入基金减仓但股价未跌,新增资金潜力值得关注,走势中期稳健向上,可在短调时低吸参与。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             公司是极具竞争力的上市发电公司之一,是山东省最大的发电公司,第一大股东为实力雄厚的中国华电集团。随着国家铁路建设的提速,将进一步增大公司其他主要资产区域的煤炭供应,有利于公司降低成本提升盈利,后市看好。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                中华企业(600675)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 昆明制药(600422)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                公司是上海房地产开发十大著企业之一,南汇并入浦东新区、崇明岛隧道通车及迪斯尼落户上海等主题均对其构成催化剂。房地产开工及销售数据显示行业景气向好。走势该股已突破60日均线压制,中期向好趋势不变。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司位于中国药谷云南,具有突出资源垄断性,依托云南丰富的天然植物药资源优势,走天然药物高新技术产业化及中药产业现代化的发展道路。此外,公司多个产品被列入国家基本医疗保险和工伤保险药品目录,医改将对公司构成长期重大利好。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                策略:创业板上市时间明朗,不确定因素消除。宏观数据显示经济回暖趋势已定,资金回流主板,可关注近期有主题催化剂的低碳经济品种、上海本地股,价值与主题并举,方可获取超额收益。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                公司是国内轻型商用车龙头企业,近年来营业收入稳步增长,毛利率和净利率均处于业内较高水平,公司商用车具有良好的性价比,且公司未来一段时间各产品均有新产品推出,这将有利于提升公司未来几年的业绩增长潜力。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             公司是中国最大的工程承包商和海外工程承包商,半年报披露,公司前十大流通股中,9家基金机构持有37326万A股,占公司总股份比例为15.24%,近期该股低位量能开始温和放大,技术指标开始转强,技术上存在补涨要求,建议关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                大连友谊(000679)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 新疆城建(600545)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                公司已经成功实现转型,现在已经成为房地产行业具有一定实力的域性龙头,公司在治理水平提升的情况下,三季度业绩超预期,且业绩锁定性以及财务指标保持良好,而公司估值水平明显低于行业平均水平,维持买入评级。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             公司在乌鲁木齐市自来水的供水能力上占据主导地位,占乌鲁木齐市全市供水量的60%。公司预计2009年1-9月累计净利润较去年同期增长100%以上。近期该股围绕年线上下震荡,近日开始携量震荡走高,建议投资者逢低关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                黑牡丹(600510)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 合肥百货(000417)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                公司走的是房地产业+纺织的模式,而且土地储备丰富,有望成为常州新区土地开发商,房地产业务将成为未来业绩增长主要来源,而且未来有资产注入和产业投资的预期,特别是新能源、新材料、节能环保行业的投资值得期待。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     公司是安徽商业龙头,零售主业形成的现代百货、超市连锁和家电专营三轮联动的良性发展格局明显,品牌知名度和市场美誉度进一步扩大和提升,预计2009年1—9月净利润13000万元,同比增长约80%。目前该股主力稳轧稳打,股价仍处在上升途中,建议逢盘宽幅震荡时关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                点评:工银平衡(164803)的选股思路是优先配置周期敏感性强的先导行业,包括金融、地产、汽车、钢铁等行业,循此思路,该基金也减持了防御性行业,主要包括医药和经常消费等行业个股。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         点评:中海能源(163903)的选股思路有两个,一是跟踪信贷政策趋势以决定操作重点。因为真正能够影响市场的依然是信贷的政策,所以,跟随信贷政策既可以决定仓位的轻重,也可以根据信贷政策选择经济复苏敏感类的行业。二是跟随国际大宗商品价格趋势,选择煤炭,钢铁,有色,化工等行业的投资机会。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                就其重仓股来说,悦达投资有两个业务亮点,一是持有东风悦达起亚汽车公司25%股份,而由于目前经济型轿车的销售火爆,从而意味着这些股权将给公司带来积较佳的投资回报。二是高速公路股权,有望给公司带来稳定的投资回报。与此同时,公司还有大股东注资等诸多题材预期,故可跟踪。而上海汽车则得益于我国居民消费升级对汽车的旺盛需求,从而使得公司的销售收入持续增长。与此同时,公司的产品结构也有了实质性的改善,盈利能力大大提升,故可跟踪。而万科目前则拥有高端房产销售势头旺盛以及人民币升值的推动力的优势,近期地产股明显活跃,作为地产股的龙头,该股在近期或有相对强劲的走势,建议投资者可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     就其重仓股来说,黑牡丹产业转型成功,在2009年初,公司通过购买常州高新城投100%股权和常州火炬置业100%股权而进入到城市综合功能开发和商业房地产开发。公司在城区的老厂房区有7个地块的土地使用权,总建面积10万平米,预计项目净利润率可达25%,2010年可以部分进入结算,未来业绩成长性相对乐观,可跟踪。而东方电气的优势则在于产品结构的调整,即以新能源、清洁能源设备为重点,因此,公司目前估值较具优势。而招商地产则在于人民币升值的趋势渐趋明显,未来成长动能乐观,也可低吸持有。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                点评:易基策略(161102)的选股思路主要是从行业的角度选择成长性个股,因为只有行业景气的延续,才可以给行业内的优质企业带来高成长的机遇。故该基金在今年以来对地产、汽车等先导性产业类的优质个股予以积极关注,取得了超跃大盘涨幅的超额收益率。与此同时,对因原料降幅较大而盈利能力复苏的个股也予以了积极关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         点评:华安成长(160407) 的选股思路是把握经济发展脉搏,并从中选择与经济发展密切相关的产业进行重点投资。随着经济状况的进一步好转,钢铁、化工、机械、航运等中游行业有望因需求的复苏出现行业拐点,而全球性的流动性泛滥将极大程度的带来整体或局部的通胀预期,从而支撑上游原材料、资源、地产等行业的投资机会。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                就其重仓股来说,红宝丽上市募集资金将投资建设5万吨环保型聚氨酯硬泡组合聚醚项目将于今年底建成投产,未来三年发展的基础已然具备。而平煤股份的优势在于产能增长与价格提升趋势较为乐观,毕竟在原油价格站上80美元的大背景下,煤炭价格提升的空间已乐观。与此同时,北方冬季用煤高峰的来临也有利于公司产品价格的提升。而华发股份的优势则清晰可见,主要得益于珠海经济的发展以及港珠澳大桥等基础设施的建设,未来珠海地产业的前景更为乐观。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 就其重仓股来说,新农开发基本面并无特别亮点,但近期的一则公告让市场重新审视公司的投资机会,因为公司称不排除在一个月后与控股股东进行资产置换的可能性,这就赋予公司极强的重组预期。而中国铁建的优势则在于两点,一是相对便宜的估值,二是业绩的成长性较为乐观,毕竟饱满的订单有利于公司未来的业绩成长。而金地集团则由于人民币升值的趋势将使得地产行业面临着重估的动能,与此同时,公司的预收帐款前景不错,锁定了未来的业绩成长前景,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

    申银万国     天科股份(600378)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          复星医药(600196)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         森洋投资
         策略:创业板上市时间明朗,不确定因素消除。宏观数据显示经济回暖趋势已定,资金回流主板,可关注近期有主题催化剂的低碳经济品种、上海本地股,价值与主题并举,方可获取超额收益。     策略:周五两市板块和个股再现普涨格局,均线也呈多头排列,值得注意的是国务院常务会议首提管理通胀预期,货币政策调整迹象显露。操作上可关注防御性行业的蓝筹股公司,注意控制仓位。
    证券通     江铃汽车(000550)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          中国铁建(601186)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         九鼎德盛
         策略:A 股市场经过三季度的调整,整体估值已经趋于合理。截至10 月15 日全部A 股的市盈率为25 倍,低于2006 年以来的历史均值27.5倍。低于历史平均水平的行业分布为信息服务、金融服务、餐饮旅游等。     策略:目前市场保持震荡盘升格局,后市仍有继续走高的潜力。不过需要注意的是,随着创业板推出在即,投资者在适量参与的过程中也需保持一份谨慎,切忌一味追涨,控制仓位,把握好市场节奏。
    工银平衡     悦达投资(600805)、上海汽车(600104)、万科A(000002)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      黑牡丹(600510)、东方电气(600875)、招商地产(000024)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     中海能源
         策略:该基金预计证券市场向上的趋势暂时不会发生改变,但震荡的幅度将会加大。故集中持有银行、地产、保险,汽车等大周期行业,同时注重经济复苏机会,如钢铁、建材、工程机械等中游行业。     策略:该基金组合以能源进攻配置为主,煤炭、新能源均采取了超配,电力等下游行业进行了低配。结合房地产行业上市公司的调研,该基金大幅增加房地产、银行、保险等金融行业的配置比例。
    易基策略     红宝丽(002165)、平煤股份(601666)、华发股份(600325)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      新农开发(600359)、中国铁建(601186)、金地集团(600383)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 华安成长
         策略:该基金认为充裕的流动性和投资者预期使大宗商品价格先于经济反弹,坚持价值选股,策略应对的投资理念,力争以相对确定的企业价值化解不确定的市场风险,坚持既有的投资理念及风格。     策略:该基金认为今年以来的累积的巨大涨幅随时会导致市场出现宽幅震荡,建议操作上要警惕风险,但投资机会依然,重点关注投资、消费、出口为主线,并关注上游、中游、下游行业的轮动。