• 1:头版
  • 2:要闻
  • 3:焦点
  • 4:特别报道
  • 5:信息披露
  • 6:信息披露
  • 7:信息披露
  • 8:产经新闻
  • 9:财经海外
  • 10:观点·专栏
  • 11:公 司
  • 12:公司纵深
  • 13:公司前沿
  • 14:公司·融资
  • 15:调查·公司
  • 16:人物
  • A1:市 场
  • A2:市场新闻
  • A3:机构动向
  • A4:资金观潮
  • A5:市场趋势
  • A6:市场评弹
  • A7:一周策略
  • A8:数据说话
  • B1:披 露
  • B4:产权信息
  • B5:信息披露
  • B6:路演回放
  • B7:信息披露
  • B8:信息披露
  • B9:信息披露
  • B10:信息披露
  • B11:信息披露
  • B12:信息披露
  • B13:信息披露
  • B14:信息披露
  • B15:信息披露
  • B16:信息披露
  • B17:信息披露
  • B18:信息披露
  • B19:信息披露
  • B20:信息披露
  • B21:信息披露
  • B22:信息披露
  • B23:信息披露
  • B24:信息披露
  • B25:信息披露
  • B26:信息披露
  • B27:信息披露
  • B28:信息披露
  • B29:信息披露
  • B30:信息披露
  • B31:信息披露
  • B32:信息披露
  • B33:信息披露
  • B34:信息披露
  • B35:信息披露
  • B36:信息披露
  • B37:信息披露
  • B38:信息披露
  • B39:信息披露
  • B40:信息披露
  • B41:信息披露
  • B42:信息披露
  • B43:信息披露
  • B44:信息披露
  • B45:信息披露
  • B46:信息披露
  • B47:信息披露
  • B48:信息披露
  • B49:信息披露
  • B50:信息披露
  • B51:信息披露
  • B52:信息披露
  • B53:信息披露
  • B54:信息披露
  • B55:信息披露
  • B56:信息披露
  • B57:信息披露
  • B58:信息披露
  • B59:信息披露
  • B60:信息披露
  • B61:信息披露
  • B62:信息披露
  • B63:信息披露
  • B64:信息披露
  • B65:信息披露
  • B66:信息披露
  • B67:信息披露
  • B68:信息披露
  • B69:信息披露
  • B70:信息披露
  • B71:信息披露
  • B72:信息披露
  • B73:信息披露
  • B74:信息披露
  • B75:信息披露
  • B76:信息披露
  • B77:信息披露
  • B78:信息披露
  • B79:信息披露
  • B80:信息披露
  • B81:信息披露
  • B82:信息披露
  • B83:信息披露
  • B84:信息披露
  • B85:信息披露
  • B86:信息披露
  • B87:信息披露
  • B88:信息披露
  • B89:信息披露
  • B90:信息披露
  • B91:信息披露
  • B92:信息披露
  • B93:信息披露
  • B94:信息披露
  • B95:信息披露
  • B96:信息披露
  • B97:信息披露
  • B98:信息披露
  • B99:信息披露
  • B100:信息披露
  • B101:信息披露
  • B102:信息披露
  • B103:信息披露
  • B104:信息披露
  • B105:信息披露
  • B106:信息披露
  • B107:信息披露
  • B108:信息披露
  •  
      2009 10 27
    前一天  后一天  
    按日期查找
    A7版:一周策略
    上一版  下一版  
    pdf
     
     
     
      | A7版:一周策略
    通胀预期升温 政策退出或成扰动因素
    券商研究显示最具成长性品种追踪
    本周行业看台:纺织服务行业
    信息解读
    更多新闻请登陆中国证券网〉〉〉
     
     
    上海证券报网络版郑重声明
       经上海证券报社授权,中国证券网独家全权代理《上海证券报》信息登载业务。本页内容未经书面授权许可,不得转载、复制或在非中国证券网所属服务器建立镜像。欲咨询授权事宜请与中国证券网联系 (400-820-0277) 。

     
    标题: 作者: 正文: 起始时间: 截止时间:
      本版导航 | 版面导航 | 标题导航 收藏 | 打印 | 推荐  
    通胀预期升温 政策退出或成扰动因素
    2009年10月27日      来源:上海证券报      作者:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     在估值不断提升以及投资者预期相应上行背景下,市场波动会加剧。应遵循资源和资产类逻辑,寻求业绩超预期以及有安全边际的股票。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             总的来看,已公布的宏观数据仍然对市场形成支撑,预计三季报也会符合预期,因为金融、地产、石化的利润大户表现不俗。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             我们坚定地看好A股表现,并且认为市场向上趋势已经形成。国内外经济复苏态势不断明朗,接下来看到的将是企业盈利的持续改善。而全社会流动性处于合理充裕状态,市场估值仍有一定上升空间,因此四季度市场运行中枢还将震荡上移,上证指数有望挑战前期3478点高点。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             随着人民币升值预期幅度的不断加大+美联储仍然维持低利率将导致国外热钱流入不断加速,我们认为随着2010年上半年信贷规律性的放开+一季度出口增速转正导致的人民币升值预期幅度强烈,2010年一季度市场流动性预期将异常乐观。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 市场长期向好趋势还能继续保持,短期也许创业板上市以及宏观微调会带来一些波动。短期可关注绩优类创业公司,长期可关注金融地产等绩优主流板块。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             短期内市场面临的风险因素有两个,一是创业板开闸会分流市场资金,二是大盘股发行带来的融资压力,供给方面的压力会延缓指数上升速度、压缩指数上涨空间,但是不会影响A股整体震荡上行趋势。投资机会上,投资者可重点选择强周期板块和资产价格泡沫预期下的资源板块,推荐房地产、有色、煤炭。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           行业配置关注驱动力的阶段转换,近期看投资和出口双轮经济增长,明年也将看通货膨胀。下半年以来,以地产投资为增量的投资和出口复苏持续驱动中国复苏,所不同的是近期出口复苏是帮助确认经济复苏,而地产投资复苏进一步撬动中国经济由复苏迈向繁荣。因此,近期(年内)我们更看好地产产业链,而中期(2010年)来看,经济周期从复苏向繁荣过渡中,受益通胀的板块将有机会。本周组合为:中国平安、中国太保、招商银行、民生银行、保利地产、福耀玻璃、海螺水泥、凌钢股份、云南铜亚、中国神华、徐工机械。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    在业绩预期尚未上升为市场主要推动力时,通胀受益将成为未来较为持久的投资主线。因此,建议回避情绪化追涨,回调布局通胀受益行业。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 按照上述逻辑,决定未来市场预期的关键因素在于出口。根据我们对外部经济和外需形势的判断,明年一季度之后当外需复苏进入正常化阶段从而出口增长的陡峭程度也开始走平时,市场反弹可能会告一段落。

         美国道·琼斯指数在近期站上10000点大关之后调整压力将明显增大,这也将对未来几周的A股走势产生影响。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             在美国依然维持其低利率背景下,利差交易带来的国际资本流动会激发短期人民币升值预期,我们可以将此作为一个交易型策略:在人民币升值预期下,关注金融、地产等资产型行业;在美元贬值预期下,关注煤炭、有色等资源型行业;目前的人民币升值预期尚无法对依赖于实质升值改善利润的如航空、造纸等行业构成推动。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     综合上述分析以及当前市场的估值水平,我们认为市场短期有望延续震荡向上走势。短期行业推荐以反应国内需求的周期性行业(地产、煤炭、农业、机械、家电、汽车及零部件)和金融行业中的保险、证券为主,重点推荐金地集团、西山煤电、潍柴动力、格力电器、宇通客车、中国平安。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     化工类股票在本轮反弹中整体表现偏弱,主要原因可能是化工股整体产能过剩和需求不足,从而业绩可能并不理想。但由于化工行业体系庞杂,其中有些细分行业蕴藏着机会。化工行业是成本推动型行业,但是由于下游需求不足和产能过剩,因此对于大部分化工股票来说都是一个处在底部并继续寻底过程。化工细分子行业看好尿素、有机硅、氟、粘胶。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     大盘目前处于强势状态,上证指数做出的头肩底形态业已完成。即使将其作为一个大三角形来看待的话,最多还有一次回调,3000点理应能得到支撑。本周面临的最大不确定性因素是28家创业板股票30日如何表现。(本栏编辑 姚炯)

    国元证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         江海证券看 平                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            民生证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         银河证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 国信证券看 多

    本周关键事件包括创业板挂牌和权重股业绩的发布。创业板本身对A股资金分流有限,初期预计观望心理较重。不过如果创业板有着良好的赚钱效应,对主板的游资会起到一定的分流作用;至于权重股的业绩,目前银行股业绩增长较为明确,但是石化双雄存在下半年业绩环比下降预期。三季报如果石化双雄业绩环比下降以及油价继续维持高位,将给石化双雄走势带来隐忧。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 上周公布的经济数据显示,当前经济形势向好,回暖加快,全年经济增速保八无忧。同时从广交会的情况来看,出口企业订单增幅明显,让我们看到了外贸复苏的曙光,未来贸易贡献率将逐步加大。经济全面回暖之势给市场提供了较强的支撑力。在全年“保 8”无忧背景下,政府开始对前期过度依赖投资的增长模式所带来的后遗症开始进行纠正,并在今年来首次提出“管理好通胀预期”意味着政策重心已经由前期的“保增长”转向“调结构、防通胀”。当前通胀的显性化趋势越发明显,市场对于通胀的分歧逐渐减少有助于资产价格的进一步上升。此外,近期外汇占款和外汇储备明显增长也表明资金正在加速流入中国,这将支撑未来中国资产价格上涨。                                                                                                                                                         本周市场格外引人注目,首先是创业板的开板交易,虽说融资规模对主板冲击不大,但结构影响还是不小。开板交易前,创业板的高估值对主板的类创业公司的提振效应比较明显;开板后,由于壳资源的稀释,绩差公司的壳价值降低,形成结构性的两极分化。其次是工商银行的全流通,月底市场的流通市值达到三分之二,市场对这波洪峰也比较关注。再次是三季报即将公布完毕,宏观向好能否渗透到微观,流动性驱动能否转换到业绩驱动,都将有个结果。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     从经济数据看,消费对我国经济复苏的贡献度提高,意味着我国经济内生增长动力在增强。同时,通胀预期开始出现,这将更多的表现在资产市场和资产价格上。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     流动性方面我们认为市场正在逐渐将关注焦点从新增月度贷款数据转向套息交易+人民币升值预期越来越强烈下的热钱流入。我们认为市场流动性主要来自两部分:一是国内银行贷款,另一部分是境外热钱流入。经济周期中国内流动性分为三个阶段:1)经济周期衰退末期和复苏期宽松的货币政策下偏正面的流动性;2)经济扩张期适度宽松的货币政策下偏中性的流动性(并且在一年中表现为上半年松下半年紧);3)经济衰退期适度紧缩的货币政策下偏负面的流动性。目前对于国内流动性我们认为已经进入到第二阶段,但来自国外的流动性仍然偏正面。

         技术上看,股指下一个压力位在3478点下跌以来的颈线位置3200点附近,而向下5、10、30周均线以及10、60、120日线形成强力支撑。突破20周均线后技术上有回抽确认过程,预计股指周初冲高后震荡整理概率增大。板块配置上,金融股无疑是价值型品种,升值周期下地产股仍然是不变的主题,汽车股也有望受益进一步的消费刺激措施,油价飙升给煤炭及煤化工板块带来股价提升预期。

    浙商证券看 平                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         中原证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            中信证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         上海证券 看 空                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                招商证券看 多

         根据浙商证券的基金仓位监测模型,偏股型开放式基金平均仓位上周出现上升,止住了近一个月的连续减仓步伐,由前一周的72.30%上升至73.97%,上升幅度为1.67 个百分点。剔除市值波动对基金仓位的影响,基金整体主动增仓幅度为0.8个百分点。与此同时,上周主动增仓的基金在基金总数中的占比明显回升,从20%上升到接近50%。可见部分基金已经开始转变投资策略,逐渐开始转守为攻。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        三季度宏观经济数据成为推动上周A股市场上涨的重要因素,国内经济加速复苏态势已经确定,市场信心呈现全面回升态势。由于当前市场关注的焦点依然集中在创业板上面,而10月份又面临巨额解禁压力,上市公司三季度业绩报告已陆续登场,因此我们预计A股可能继续保持震荡上扬格局。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             A股市场整体判断:维持A股市场继续震荡向上的判断,防通胀进一步提升通胀预期。上周中央首次明确提出“管理通胀预期”,同时节后澳元首次加息,我们认为这两者都暗示中国经济将强劲复苏,通胀预期也进一步升温。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     在“调结构”与“通胀预期”管理两方面,后者对短期市场影响更大,未来政策变局对市场短期趋势存在潜在扰动。我们认为局部经济数据超预期“亮点”带来的反弹动力在3100点附近已趋衰退,通胀预期管理形成的政策扰动“忧点”即将扩散,大盘在3100点上方非坦途,本周市场存在短期回调压力。我们对于市场预期变化的总体判断是——从经济数据预测转向对后续宏观调控政策的关注。我们认为此预期变化的市场影响将表现为——超预期“亮点”消退,政策扰动“忧点”上升。从草根调研情况看,近期与销售环比大增形成鲜明对比的是,开发商拿地热情显著降低,回笼资金意图显现,我们判断这是房地产企业观望年底政策变化的反映。                                                                                                                                                         从经济复苏预期对市场影响角度看,市场经历了三个阶段:第一阶段,年初至7月份前后,此阶段内需主导经济复苏斜率提升,市场上涨;第二阶段,大体上在8-9月份,外需仍然没有出现明显复苏,而内需斜率却开始变平,市场对经济复苏预期发生改变,市场出现调整,货币政策微调加重了市场波动;第三阶段,大体上10月份开始(公布9月份数据),内需(固定投资)基本仍然维持走平态势,但出口开始步入大斜率复苏阶段,市场对经济复苏预期再次发生好转,市场开始反弹。我们认为,第三阶段将是外需主导经济复苏斜率和市场预期阶段。

         目前市场信心很大程度上还是来源于宏观经济层面的持续好转,由于基本面和政策面没有出现意外的惊喜,大盘中短线仍将反复,2700-3200点可能成为上证指数近期的盘整区域。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             考虑到未来宏观政策仍将保持适当宽松,上市公司三季度业绩预期可能会出现超市场预期的情况。同时目前A股估值水平较为合理,股指再度大幅下跌的空间已不大。建议投资者可逢低关注基本面比较确定、近期跌幅较大的蓝筹股超跌反弹机会,主要关注银行、地产、保险、券商以及有色金属等大类品种。另外建议继续关注商贸零售、食品饮料、医药、电力等防御类品种的阶段性投资机会。随着创业板进程的不断推进,相关板块与个股的投资机会依然值得继续关注。

    中信建投 看 平                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         国金证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            中金公司 看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         长江证券看 平                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 广发证券看 多

    上周成交量和换手率都得到了有效放大,这说明在利好的宏观数据和三季报数据推动下,以及创业板即将上市交易刺激下,投资者前期的谨慎心态有所改变。在3000点附近经历了一段时间的整理之后,市场已经成功站上了3100点,但是就近期而言,市场整体机会仍旧不明显,市场继续向上空间也比较有限,强势震荡仍然是大概率事件,建议投资者继续关注行业轮动和局部热点。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             短期内A股市场关注的焦点仍然是美元贬值,及其带来的人民币升值预期。虽然国内政策出现一些转变信号,但在经济信号仍然强劲恢复背景下,在初始阶段市场对此反应较为平淡。市场在10月份找到的驱动力是美元贬值,国际资本流入,以及进而引发的本币升值预期。我们认为短期市场仍然会受到这一线索驱动,但随着时间推移潜在的变化风险同样值得重视。我们认为近期人民币升值预期的上升主要来自于短期内美元贬值的带动,人民币实质升值的内在动力并不充分。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            逐步公布的三季度业绩、9月份房地产销售、房地产投资和出口数据表明市场基本面在未来3-6个月持续改善的可见度在增强;虽然政府首次提出“管理通胀预期”,但这种提法我们认为更多是在平衡各方力量。目前来看,通胀整体上处于逐步回升阶段,尚不构成市场风险;流动性方面的压力由于再融资等因素依然存在,但市场向好走势使得市场短期流动性有改善趋势。另外,我们注意到A股新开户数以及基金开户数均在反弹,而8、9月份新发行的基金也处于建仓期,为市场增加了动力。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            美国9 月份PPI 的超预期降幅主要是受到了能源价格的大幅下滑的影响。随着8月末美国旧车换现金计划的停止实施,让一度奋起的汽车销售数字在9月迅速打回原形。美国汽车价格大幅飙升导致汽车需求急剧下降,从而对以汽油为主的能源消费超预期的缩水,能源价格顺势回落。旧车换现金计划的停止实施以及PPI能源价格立即的大幅下降都反映出,美国经济中能源依赖型的消费仍旧非常低迷。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     上周国家统计局公布了三季度和9月经济指标,数据总体乐观,对市场起到了一定的支撑鼓舞作用。同时,外围市场整体表现也较为坚挺,美股继续保持高位震荡,大宗商品如石油、铜、镍、锌保持上涨态势,揭示全球经济出现回暖已经成为定局。不过经济数据的好转也使得市场人士担忧各国刺激经济政策有“退出”可能,这方面需要密切关注。毕竟先前发生的经济回暖属于各国“救市”的“护盘”行为,一旦真正开始选择“退出”,市场还需要检验自身运作能力。短期来看,还不足为惧,但待到明年一季度,退出与否应该逐步明晰。

         就投资策略而言,我们建议投资者继续关注三条主线:首先,通胀预期主线,建议投资者继续关注周期性行业,包括有色金属和商业;其次,三季报业绩预期主线,建议投资者继续关注业绩增长预期明确的行业,主要是房地产和银行业;另外,本周创业板正式上市交易,中小板和科技股的估值将得到进一步刺激。同时券商股也将得到相应的刺激和机会,建议投资者适当关注。