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  • 8:机构视点·投资策略
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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    大单投注站·短线热门股
    证券通:研究显示一致预期大幅调高品种追踪
    朝阳永续:研究显示目标涨幅巨大品种追踪
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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    2009年11月01日      来源:上海证券报      作者:

                公司是老牌房地产企业,目前在深圳、海南、武汉等地的房地产项目已进入收获期。公司还涉及新能源汽车电池材料领域,所属深圳贝瑞特电子材料公司是全球第二大锂离子电池负极材料企业。该股双底成形,目前正在突破颈线位,可跟进。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     公司是中国和亚洲最大的多功能综合型建设集团,同时,公司还是中国城市轨道交通市场上的领军企业之一。公司还是中国桥梁钢结构行业的龙头企业,是国内大型铁路桥梁钢结构的唯一制造商,核心竞争力的优势将为公司今后的稳健发展打下坚实基础。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                天科股份(600378)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        国阳新能(600348)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                公司拥有甲醇生产和甲醇制二甲醚技术,市场占比高,并受政策扶持。目前低碳经济主题走俏,公司变压吸附气体分离技术是亮点,可进一步关注中美清洁能源务实合作战略对其影响。走势已形成上升通道,有望解放5月下旬高点,可参与。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     公司是我国无烟煤重要生产企业之一,其煤炭产品的销售在华北、东北地区及山东省有明显的区位和价格比较优势。公司煤炭开采量及管理技术水平均居全国领先水平。随着需求旺季的到来,国内煤炭价格的上涨值得期待,公司也将直接受益。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                益民商业(600824)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        中兴通讯(000063)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                上海国资整合政策已定,公司同一大股东旗下的商业资产在未来有预期注入,三季报公布业绩增长稳定,未来世博商机更有提升业绩看点。报表显示介入基金减仓但股价未跌,新增资金潜力值得关注,走势中期稳健向上,可在短调时低吸参与。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             公司是国内优秀的通讯设备供应商,伴随着工业和信息化部的组建和运营商重组工作的进行,中国通信市场发展进入了一个新的阶段,而国际一些重大项目陆续进入执行阶段,公司经营依然有望保持确定性的增长,未来长期发展趋势看好。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                前三季度公司实现收入和净利润同比增长,业绩符合预期,而且业绩逐季改善明显,预计在未来2-3年,公司将通过并购重组和自设门店扩大规模,外延扩张动力充足。同时管理层激励方案也有利于调动公司管理层的积极性,有利于公司长期稳定发展。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            公司为广东中药饮片龙头,已占到具有30亿元广东市场10%份额,正在向一线主要城市扩张。公司积极进行市场扩张,向OTC市场进军。三季报显示,股东人数有所减少,短线该股震荡后被迅速拉起,技术指标重新走强,后市有望震荡走高。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                中青旅(600138)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         柳化股份(600423)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                公司是一家治理相对规范的上市公司,受出入境游业务提升及国内游业务基本恢复影响,公司旅游主业逐步恢复,实现增长。三季报看,净利润增速大幅提升主要归功于证券投资收益及策略性投资业务收益大幅增加,这有望成为公司业绩爆发的催化剂。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            公司是广西最大的化肥化工生产企业之一,拥有的壳牌煤气化技术是世界上最为先进的煤气化技术之一。该股今年以来呈反复箱体整理格局,在股指反弹中累计涨幅有限,无论在时间还是空间上调整均较为充分,目前该股继续杀跌空间有限,逢低关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                大西洋(600558)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         沃华医药(002107)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                公司是全球一流的核电焊材综合供应商,焊材行业搞景气度继续维持,使得前三季度公司收入和利润超预期,而公司整体估值水平处于较低水平,全年业绩炒预期概率依然很大,未来公司综合成长空间依然广阔,维持公司增持的评级。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     公司逐步形成了以独立自主研发为主,与其他科研机构合作研发、直接购买新药或在研成果等为补充多样化新药研发模式。近期该股反复震荡筑底,底部构筑夯实,在股指反弹中累计涨幅有限,鉴于公司基本面优良,业绩稳定增长,可逢低关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                点评:华夏红利(160307)的选股思路具有较典型的趋势投资的特征。考虑到当前A股市场估值泡沫有所显现的背景,该基金近期明显减持主题投资类的股票,大幅度减持与内需相关性小的中游制造业股票,但集中增持了受益于内需复苏的地产、银行、钢铁、煤炭等行业的股票。由此可见,该基金一方面判断大盘趋势,另一方面则是判断产业演变趋势,两者的结合赋予该基金独特的选股思路。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 点评:中信红利(160319)的选股思路根据经济发展趋势选择品种,随着经济活力的提升,该基金对业绩稳定,防御性明显的电力设备等品种予以减持。而积极增持了基本面迅速向好的券商、银行、房地产,以及受益于投资拉动的采掘、金属、工程机械等行业。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                就其重仓股来说,凌钢股份享有三大投资亮点,一是长材比重高。二是自有矿石提升公司的投资价值。三是公司并购重组的预期增强。而南京银行的优势也较为突出,主要是因为公司是地方商业银行,在本轮次基础设施建设过程中,可以获得安全稳定的贷款项目,可跟踪。而中国太保则在于加息预期背景下的保险资产价值提升,与此同时,公司的投资能力也大大回升。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    就其重仓股来说,白云山为我国大型制药企业,新修订的专利法有可能使白云山在未授权的情况下生产达菲。专利法增加的强制许可制度将为白云山推出抗甲型H1N1流感药物提供了法律依据,赋予其甲感概念股题材。而且,白云山拥有1300亩优质土地按商业价值估算在100亿以上。燕京啤酒的优势主要在于两点,一是原料价格下降所带来的毛利率回升趋势。二是收购后的产业整合也有利于释放公司盈利能力。而华侨城则由于依靠主题公园+房地产的盈利模式而独步于高端地产,毛利率明显高于普通地产公司,短线趋势乐观,可持有。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                操作策略:考虑到宏观政策变化的逐步临近,尤其对于大资金而言,需要在合适时机、以合适的方式逐步偏离当前市场已一致预期的经济复苏的资产配置主线,转向与宏观经济相关度不高的领域。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                点评:上投内需(163705)的选股思路主要有两个,一是关注内需驱动型公司的增长机会,特别是终端消费类行业,如商业和家电等传统行业或公司。二是国家未来的战略性产业是选股的另一个重点,如节能环保产业、新能源领域等。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            点评:华富成长(164103)的选股思路围绕“通胀预期”与“企业盈利改善”两条主线,前者带来金属股等大宗商品价格涨升受益概念股,后者则带来小盘股等成长动能充沛的品种。而且在关注行业资产配置的同时,我们仍旧会挖掘一些行业属性好、成长空间大的个股进行长期配置。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                就其重仓股来说,江南高纤涤纶毛条市场占有率达70%,定价能力强,涤纶毛条产品毛利超30%。公司另一主要产品复合短纤维主要应用于卫生用品和医用品领域,而2009年公司的涤纶毛条产能从2万吨提高2.4万吨,而复合短纤维的产能则从2万吨扩大到10万吨,未来成长性乐观。而浙江医药的优势在于目前维生素业绩弹性强,产能利用率回升,业绩仍有望维持着目前的成长趋势,目前估值略偏低。而雅戈尔的优势在于金融股权投资、地产业以及纺织业的发展趋势较为乐观,其中金融投资的股权将陆续解禁,从而为未来业绩成长埋下了伏笔。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    就其重仓股来说,传化股份是我国纺织化学品行业的龙头企业之一,未来有进一步增加可能。收购大股东所属染料资产后,控制活性染料产能3.5万吨,显示公司在染助一体化方面已取得重大的进展。银座股份近年来在山东地区的市场份额日益扩大、垄断地位逐渐确立。此外,公司大股东山东省商业集团商业资源丰富。而青岛啤酒的优势则在于两点,一是原料价格的回落但产品价格未有回落趋势,毛利率提升。二是产品结构调整。三是收购的各分公司的整合效应有所显现,业绩成长性乐观。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

    申银万国     中国宝安(000009)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  中国中铁(601390)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     森洋投资
         策略:首批28家创业板上市后引发了资金的过度炒作,我们认为,主板仍是A股的主战场,未来仍可能获得理性资金的回流,操作上可关注新能源汽车、低碳经济和上海本地商业股的重估机会。     策略:周五A股市场受创业板上市影响出现放量滞涨,创业板遭遇爆炒,个股平均市盈率也达到100倍左右,下周大盘市场走势不容乐观,建议重点关注防御性行业的蓝筹股公司,注意控制仓位。
    证券通     新华都(002264)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  康美药业(600518)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     九鼎德盛
         策略:在较长时期内,回收流动性和人民币升值也是一对影响市场的重要矛盾,由于预期向好,市场整体力量有利于指数呈现逐步震荡抬升的走势,在这种局面下,应抓住市场震荡的机会进行战略布局。     策略:创业板推出后遭遇市场追捧,加剧了市场的观望气氛,短线市场仍有继续调整的压力,半年线区域仍有争夺。操作上对创业板个股不要轻举妄动,在保持谨慎的同时,逢低适量关注。
    华夏红利     凌钢股份(600231)、南京银行(601009)、中国太保(601601)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          白云山(000522)、燕京啤酒(000729)、华侨城(000069)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 中信红利
         策略:考虑到宏观政策变化的逐步临近,尤其对于大资金而言,需要在合适时机、以合适的方式逐步偏离当前市场已一致预期的经济复苏的资产配置主线,转向与宏观经济相关度不高的领域。     策略:该基金认为未来应提高组合的进攻性和有效性,同时注意提高流动性,并继续以银行、地产作为重点配置。在个股选择上,在选择行业底部反弹机会的同时更关注中长期趋势和上市公司业绩。
    上投内需     江南高纤(600527)、浙江医药(600216)、雅戈尔(600177)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          传化股份(002010)、银座股份(600858)、青岛啤酒(600600)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             华富成长
         策略:从国内经济运行来看,消费数据持续超越预期,特别是汽车和家电销售。该基金认为,未来A股市场走向将处决于企业的盈利复苏进程,因此,增持了医药、电力设备和消费品等行业。     策略:该基金重点研究了投资类相关行业的投资机会,并重点对金融、机械等行业进行了增持。对一些消费类的公司,该基金采取长期持有的策略,力争通过上市公司业绩增长为基金带来业绩贡献。