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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    大单投注站·短线热门股
    证券通:研究显示一致预期大幅调高品种追踪
    朝阳永续:研究显示目标涨幅巨大品种追踪
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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    2009年11月08日      来源:上海证券报      作者:

                     公司是老牌房地产企业,目前在深圳、海南、武汉等地的房地产项目已进入收获期。公司还涉及新能源汽车电池材料领域。该股双底成形,目前突破颈线位后正挑战前期高点,可参与。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司作为中国最大智能语音技术提供商,在智能语音技术领域拥有多年研究积累,并在中文语音合成、口语评测等多项技术上拥有国际领先成果,在中文语音合成市场拥有70%以上市场份额,中文语音产业60%以上整体市场份额,处于语音市场绝对领先地位。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                伊力特(600197):                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     中国中冶(601618)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                     公司是西部最大的白酒生产企业,伊力牌白酒系列产品在国内具有一定知名度,报表显示毛利率高达49.32%,盈利能力强。公司还涉足煤化工、电池碳酸锂、持股期货公司等,主题催化剂丰富。走势该股近来构筑双底后突破颈线位,有望解放前期高点,可跟进。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         公司2009年前三季度EPS0.18元,公司是以冶金工程承包业务为主导,在我国市场份额最大,也是全球最大的工程建设综合企业集团之一,并拥有矿山开发及矿产资源采、选、冶的一体化产业链,对于公司,可加大对短线波动性机会的关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                 益民商业(600824):                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    中秩二局(600528)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                        上海国资整合政策已定,公司同一大股东旗下的商业资产在未来有预期注入,三季报公布业绩增长稳定,未来世博商机更有提升业绩看点。报表显示介入基金减仓但股价未跌,新增资金潜力值得关注,走势中期稳健向上,可在短调5-10日均线时择机低吸参与。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        公司是我国大型国有工程建筑企业,也是国内首家上市铁路建筑施工企业,随着我国铁路建设投资的加速,公司不但受益于铁路大发展机遇,且依托基建优势积极开拓房地产领域,推动公司房地产业务进入业绩爆发增长拐点。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                公司主营业务持续向好,痔疮类药物制剂是其利润主要来源,对公司利润贡献在90%左右,而作为外用痔疮类药物痔疮膏是公司独家品种,痔疮膏具有极大的潜力,未来提价预期强烈,公司将迎来二次飞跃。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 反弹幅度有限 补涨意愿强烈                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         公司是空港物流龙头之一,前期公告,公司预计2009年净利润52450万元,同比增长100%-150%。二级市场上,近两个月来反复震荡构筑阶段性底部,在股指持续反弹中累计涨幅有限,底部构筑夯实,短期补涨意愿强烈,建议关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                苏宁电器(002024)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                公司为实现二次创业,在组织变革、营销变革、后台建设方面采取多项措施,使成本得到有效控制,毛利率有所提高,随着宏观经济形势好转,4季度进入到公司开店的高峰时期,营业面积可增加13.55%,而公司现在动态估值偏低,维持公司买入的投资评级。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     雅戈尔(600177)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         主营优势明显 动态市盈率低                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                许继电气(000400)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     公司主营龙头优势明显,此外,为进一步实现DP技术的产业规模化奠定基础,新产品新工艺使公司服装内销毛利率一直保持在较高水平。近期该股开始携量稳步走高,由于动态市盈率仅10倍左右,具有中长线投资价值。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                公司是最完整的电气设备生产企业,这将使得公司业务平稳增长,作为国内自主研发风电并网设备的厂家,目前风电并网设备已经是进入小批量生产阶段,预计该项业务将成为公司新的利润增长点,随着国家电网入住公司,使得公司发展空间巨大,维持公司买入的投资评级。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 航天科技(000901)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         半年线附近蓄势 做多动能聚集                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         公司是航天系上市公司中成为唯一拥有生产固体运载火箭核心技术和资产的企业,在“神六”载人飞船的发射过程中承担了不可替代作用。近期该股在半年线反复震荡蓄势充分,技术指标转强,做多动能正在聚集中。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                点评:嘉实量化(160715)的选股思路主要有三个:一是上游的资源优势产业,看好煤炭、有色金属等品种;二是看好地产等受益于经济复苏以及通胀预期的行业;三是从外需角度选择强势品种,尤其是估值优势明显的造船、航运等品种。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         点评:东方精选(164003)的选股思路较为独特,一是对未股改股情有独钟,S佳通、S上石化等品种依然是公司的重仓品种,主要追求的是股改红利以及股改过程中公司基本面积极变化所释放的业绩增长潜能。二是关注着投资能力较佳的品种,比如说哈投股份、泸州老窖等均有较多的金融资产。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                就其重仓股来说,天药股份是全球第三大皮质激素生产商,主导产品地塞米松2005年以来的年出口量一直维持在20万-22万吨。过去一年中,大宗原料价格出现了大幅波动,而地塞米松依然处于近年来的高位。由此,折射出公司在行业中的定价地位,因此,未来业绩有望持续好转,建议投资者可积极跟踪。而浙江广厦的优势则在于土地储备相对丰富,地产项目选址较为独特,成长动能充沛。中国太保则在于加息预期背景下的保险资产价值提升,与此同时,公司的投资能力也大大回升,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             就其重仓股来说,生益科技是国内最大的印制电路板用覆铜板和粘结片厂商,由于覆铜板行业集中度高,而下游PCB行业集中低,覆铜板厂商溢价能力较强,目前行业复苏,公司业绩弹性大,有望获益。而S佳通目前面临着两大机遇,一是轮胎行业盈利能力乐观,二是未股改,而一旦股改,有可能产生股改与资产整合预期。而泸州老窖除了主导产品具有中高端产品比例提升所带来的盈利能力复苏等,还有华西证券的金融股权投资,前景乐观。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                点评:长盛同德(519039)的选股思路是着重个股而非行业,遵循这一思路,该基金从公司内生增长能力、长期的公司治理记录、清晰可见的相对竞争优势及较为放心的公司管理层与公司战略等方面进行评估心仪的品种,从而赋予基金组合更可持续的生命力。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     点评:德盛小盘(162502)的选股思路是从经济复苏、资源资产属性和资产盈利能力等几方面综合考虑,看好房地产、金融、商业和医药行业,也将关注钢铁、有色和煤炭等行业的阶段性投资机会。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                就其重仓股来说,顺络电子目前片感方面的销售收入只有2.2亿元人民币,相对全球45亿美元的市场容量,成长空间还很大,进一步提高市场占有率将是公司发展的目标,也是公司未来增长最重要的驱动力。而东方电气则由于公司的新能源、清洁能源设备的比重迅速提升,尤其是核电、水电,从而较快地提升了公司的业绩成长速度。长江电力的优势则在于业绩的相对透明增长,以及公司的清洁能源优势可获得一定的估值溢价,故该股目前估值较低,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             就其重仓股来说,皖维高新主导产品聚乙烯醇是应用广泛的环保型材料,出口市场复苏将利好高强高模PVA纤维业务,7月以来公司该产品出口量逐月回升,逐渐接近2008年同期水平。未来产能持续拓展以及产业链的优势渐显,成长性较为乐观,且国元证券股权具有一定的估值优势,可跟踪。平高电气的优势在于公司的特高压产品符合当前电网投资的方向,未来的下游需求相对乐观。更重要的是,公司业绩成长性较为突出,可跟踪。天威保变的优势则在于输变电业务提供了一定安全边际,而新能源业务的发展势头不错,未来有望拓展公司的成长空间。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

    申银万国     中国宝安(000009):                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              科大讯飞(002230)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             森洋投资
         策略:市场正酝酿突破箱体上轨,上一台阶后预计将解放8月份以来的高位套牢区,可关注房地产、酒类以及商业中的龙头品种,消费板块可能成为后继增量资金重点关注的对象。     策略:目前市场整体风险虽不突出,但并不能掩盖局部蕴藏的风险。其一是创业板远未真正达到理性定价状态,其二是主板题材股炒作已达疯狂程度,建议注意控制仓位,把握市场未被充分挖掘的机会。
    证券通     马应龙(600993)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  深圳机场(000089)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            九鼎德盛
         策略:渤海证券认为,投资者应把握好逢低建仓、布局明年行情的时机,重点关注三大投资机会:其一,关注消费行业。其二,可积极关注银行、保险等。其三,关注电子元器件、工程机械、化工等行业。     策略:短线市场在持续上行后,盘中震荡明显加剧,技术有震荡修正指标的要求,但整体上的强势格局将延续。投资者在操作策略上,不要一味追涨,对蓄势充分的滞涨股可进行密切关注。
    嘉实量化     天药股份(600488)、浙江广厦(600052)、中国太保(601601)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          生益科技(600183)、S佳通(600182)、泸州老窖(000568)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         东方精选
         策略:展望四季度,我们认为市场将呈现震荡走高格局。基于这些判断,未来还将采取相对中性的仓位和行业结构,投资安全边际比较大、估值合理的钢铁、银行、通讯服务、商业贸易等行业。     策略:该基金认为三季度回调有效释放了风险,目前估值合理,四季度将延续盘整行情,并立足于布局明年,自下而上精选个股,适当超配了食品饮料、品牌服装、医药、石化等经营业绩较好板块。
    长盛同德     顺络电子(002138)、东方电气(600875)、长江电力(600900)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         皖维高新(600063)、平高电气(600312)、天威保变(600550)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    德盛小盘
         策略:该基金认为,当前市场整体估值适中,经济在复苏、企业盈利增长在提高,不支持估值再下到很低水平。该基金重点关注出口回升、地产投资、热钱流入等带来的结构性机会,坚持个股精挑细选。     策略:该基金认为中国经济全年将呈现逐季走高的态势,A股市场重心也将上移。在行业配置方面,超配了地产、煤炭、有色金属等资源业;增持了食品饮料、医药、商业和电力设备等内需增长类行业。