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      | A8版:一周策略
    经济数据向好预期支持股指震荡上行
    券商研究显示最具成长性品种追踪
    信息解读
    本周行业看台:电子元器件行业
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    经济数据向好预期支持股指震荡上行
    2009年11月10日      来源:上海证券报      作者:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            在基本面向好以及流动性依然充裕环境下,市场短期仍有上行空间。沿着近期市场两大主题性投资机会,建议短期内配置银行、地产、保险,中长期重点关注与低碳相关尤其是智能电网相关的投资机会。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     根据浙商证券的基金仓位监测模型,偏股型开放式基金(不含指数型)平均仓位上周再次大幅上升,由前一周的77.28%上升至80.09%,上升幅度为2.81个百分点,这也是8月中旬以来基金平均仓位首次回到80%的水平。剔除各类资产市值波动对基金仓位的影响,基金整体也表现为主动增仓,主动增仓的幅度达到1.90个百分点,主动增仓的基金在基金总数中的占比达到58.69%。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 我们认为股指运行中枢将继续上行,但是供应方面的压力将延缓指数上涨的速度。投资者可以重点关注两条主线,一是以房地产为主要驱动力的强周期行业,二是以汽车为代表的业绩驱动型的消费型行业。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         本周可重点关注券商股,另外,可逐步考虑明年业绩增长确定和估值较低的行业,如金融服务、建筑建材、采掘、化工、黑色金属等。本周推荐组合为:拓日新能、南钢股份、鞍钢股份、紫金矿业、海通证券、申达股份、新疆天业。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         操作策略上可以中长线在价值相对低估的大盘股上进行布局,重点关注保险、银行、铁路、电力、航运等行业中的龙头股。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                     考虑到中央经济工作会议即将召开,未来宏观政策仍将保持适当宽松,同时目前A股估值水平较为合理,股指再度大幅下跌空间已经不大。建议投资者可逢低关注通胀预期下基本面比较确定的蓝筹股中期机会,主要是银行、地产、保险、券商以及有色金属等大类品种。另外建议继续关注商贸零售、食品饮料、医药、电力等防御类品种的阶段性投资机会。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 从短期影响因素看,10月份经济数据将在本周公布,对市场形成进一步支撑;房地产政策继续受市场关注,但不管如何,银行都将成为受益者;水价、电价上调预期,公用事业股关注度将得到提高;奥巴马访华,加大人民币升值预期,新能源和上海迪士尼概念等有机会。策略上,长期布局关注金融、地产等主流板块;中期关注经济复苏受益的化工、建材等中游行业;短期则可注重相关主题投资机会,如海南国际旅游岛概念。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             鉴于对市场本周及后期震荡向上的判断,建议投资者采取逢低吸纳的策略,适当提高股票持仓比例。在3120点附近介入,可在3280点附近适量减持。个股方面,适量减持前期涨幅较大的医药及题材概念类个股,关注上海本地商业股、电力、石化、煤炭、金融。本期推荐个股为新世界、宝新能源、中国石油、中信证券。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     我们认为11-12月份大体上是经济复苏向经济扩张转换后期,维持短期市场是慢牛行情的判断;待CPI转正和上行趋势明确和强化后,市场可能重新进入加速上行阶段。如果进行长远推测,那么扩张行情有望延续到明年一季度。到明年一季度底二季度初时,如果经济数据显示经济扩张和CPI上升较快,货币政策出现明确紧缩时将是经济扩张行情的风险时点。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         投资机会:在超配金融地产、上游和下游的前提下,适当减少下游配置而增加中游配置。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             政策面上,市场在积极关注中央经济工作会议可能传达的政策基调,而对房地产信贷政策的关注是近期政策关注的焦点。从外围来看,海外市场风险偏好有望继续回升。综合这些方面的因素,A股市场虽然可能在连续上涨后出现波动,但近期风险偏好改善态势有望继续。我们继续推荐内需中的周期性板块(包括煤炭、地产、保险、可选消费等)。同时有色等强周期性品种也有望受益于海外市场货币政策继续维持宽松预期。另外,随着市场风险偏好的持续回升,一些围绕主题的投机和交易性机会可能也会受到市场关注,包括“海南国际旅游岛”概念、奥巴马访华加剧人民币升值预期、新能源和上海迪士尼概念等。                                                                                                                                                                         下跌风险虽然不大,但我们也不认为短期市场向上空间很大。一方面目前资金净流入比较9月初仍有所减弱,另一方面市场大涨需要大盘股配合,但当前市场对大盘股并未有所偏好。因此,我们认为近期市场仍将维持盘整走势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     市场风格方面,从2009年1月至今,中小板指数在大部分时间内跑赢沪深300指数。目前趋势虽有可能继续,但未来发生轮换的可能性非常大,我们认为触发风格轮换的原因可能有:(1)大幅上涨后中小板在未来几个月内难有超额收益;(2)估值溢价已达历史高点,回调压力较大;(3)(4)中小板股11月份迎来限售股解禁高峰。(编辑 姚炯)

         投资策略建议从防御策略转向积极策略,上调仓位,重点关注业绩增长的中小盘股和处于中期低位的强周期行业。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

    国元证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 江海证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            浙商证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         银河证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 东北证券看 平

    由于美元反弹而导致的全球股市和大宗商品下跌已经随美联储维持利率不变而尘埃落定,推动全球股市继续反弹之路的两个根本性因素,也即宽松货币政策、经济持续复苏没有发生改变。置身于全球复苏的大环境中,尤其是出口复苏存在超预期可能和通胀压力并未真正显现的同时,充裕的资金面仍将继续推升A股反弹行情的延续。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 上周公布的10月份PMI指数达到55.2,升势加快,表明我国经济继续在加速增长通道中运行,预计本周公布的10月份经济数据呈现全面走好之势,从而给市场增添信心;尽管通胀预期压力加剧,但全球主要央行执行适度宽松的货币政策决心并未动摇,我国央行也再次重申仍将继续实施适度宽松的货币政策,市场流动性仍然非常充裕;根据上周相关行业研究员的统计结果,1620家公司2009年前三季度净利润同比下降2.93%,较前两季度大幅收窄。在经济向好环境下,四季度上市公司业绩数据将更为强劲,从而提升投资者对市场估值和公司股价的溢价水平。                                                                                                                                                                                                                 对小市值个股而言3200点压力不小,但对大盘股而言3200点压力不能算很大。毕竟沪市中大盘股整体权重是压倒性的,况且股指水平尚处在相对较低水平,中证100指数目前市盈率还不到21倍。因此,只要大盘股开始活跃和走强,3200点压力就不大。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 10月宏观经济数据将于本周披露。一方面,经济复苏的内生性与稳定性将继续增强,另一方面,我们预计无论是金融数据还是需求数据都将在市场预期之中。同时政策也将进入真空期,不会给市场带来太多惊喜;近期两周无论A股还是全球其他主要市场都与美元指数呈现出明显的负相关走势。我们认为短期内美元在资金避险情绪抬头情况下将处于弱势震荡格局,而中期将继续在贬值通道中运行,但贬值速度较此前有所放缓,从而为A股提供相对稳定的大环境;目前市场供应面带来的压力延缓了大盘上升速度和空间,但是不会影响指数震荡向上的趋势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         尽管有外盘走弱制约、有创业板分流冲击,但业绩因素实实在在成为了推动近期行情的主因。上周大盘以逼空方式连涨五个交易日,短线从获利回吐以及内在运行规律来看,技术上有整固要求。在招商证券发行或将冻结巨额资金的本周,冲高震荡整固将成为本周行情的主要特征。此外,从周三开始将陆续迎来月度宏观数据的公布,预期数据仍然延续向好局面。但如果不能超预期,短期对行情的催化因素将减弱,但从中期角度来看,只要数据延续复苏向好局面,中期走势仍然乐观。本周还有一重要事件,那就是周五奥巴马正式访华,这对低碳经济和上海本地股仍将产生推波助澜的作用。

         市场目前进入到普涨和补涨交替进行阶段,风格指数也存在着转换可能。目前蓝筹板块再成洼地,尤其是以银行股为代表。A股历史上大小盘风格指数向来有轮动习惯,经过这一轮反弹之后,大盘股补涨时机即将形成。本周市场关键因素是10月份的宏观数据,向好预期不变,加上奥巴马即将来访,短期震荡反而是加仓良机。关注板块以蓝筹云集的银行、煤炭、地产、有色等为代表,主题投资方面低碳板块无疑是不变的主题。

    光大证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 中原证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            民生证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         湘财证券 看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             招商证券看 多

    着眼于未来三个月,我们认为宏观经济基本面、政策面、企业盈利和市场面因素都支持市场继续向好,因此继续看好大盘。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        在充分消化了诸多利空因素之后,A股市场近期继续小幅上扬。但3000点上方压力依然存在,后市若要继续上涨,则需要更多超出市场预期的利好政策以及相应的宏观数据支持。近期创业板个股止跌企稳在一定程度上消除了投资者对主板市场大幅震荡的担忧情绪,预计A股近期可能保持震荡上扬格局,本周三即将公布的10月份宏观数据可能进一步验证中国经济的强劲复苏仍将是推动股指震荡上扬的有力支撑。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     上周市场连阳显强势,成交量有效放大凸现这轮反弹具备一定基础。虽然技术面对市场有一定压力,但市场逐步走出调整趋势不变。总体来看,经济好转在继续,三季度宏观数据和三季报业绩好于预期。更重要的是市场对来年预期更为乐观,“高增长、低通胀”的判断形成共识,市场在基本面、资金面、政策面都处于较有利的环境。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     从技术上看,上周两市呈放量上扬态势,30日均线首次突破60日均线,股价持续稳定在均线系统之上,显示短期和中期呈技术性看涨之势。A股经过8月份以来的3个月调整后,技术指标已明显好转。在宏观形势转好和外围市场继续走强支撑下,A股后期有望展开一轮升势。需要提请注意的是,由于60日均线仍然向下,在后期上攻过程中仍会有所反复,本周股指波动范围3120-3300点。市场关注的焦点是10月份公布的经济数据、政策动向以及境外股市、汇市和期市走势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     经济上升过程分为经济复苏和经济扩张两个阶段,一旦经济进入扩张阶段,意味着总需求将超越总供给,那么物价指数将转正并持续攀升。本周将公布CPI、PPI等一系列宏观经济数据,预计物价指数跌幅将进一步收缩,11月份CPI可能转为正增长并进入缓慢上升期,经济扩张阶段越来越近。

         本周关注的售点:(1)11月11日开始发布的10月份宏观经济数据;(2)关注招商证券IPO的影响,以及其他大盘股的IPO进程;(3)房市刺激政策退出情况;(4)奥巴马将于11月15-18日访华,本周新能源、节能减排和低碳经济可能迎来交易性机会。(5)美元指数走势;(6)关注空天概念股。上周空军司令许其亮指出中国已确立“空天一体、攻防兼备”的空军战略,要建立一支符合空天时代发展需要的空中军事力量。11月6日胡锦涛主席指出中国将积极参与国际空间安全合作,推动建设互利共赢、安全和谐的空天环境,促进人类和平与发展的崇高事业。这可能带来交易性投资机会。本周重点推荐浙江龙盛、湖北宜化、江南高纤、中泰化学。

    齐鲁证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 国信证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            中金公司 看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         国泰君安看 平                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 广发证券看 多

    对比中国物流与采购联合会PMI的环比增长百分点数与当日上证指数涨幅,发现两者具有较好的正相关性。上周一刺激股市低开后大幅上涨的主要原因是10月份PMI数据继续上升;央行回笼资金对股市的影响明显减弱,上周股市非但没有下跌,反而大幅上涨再创新高。11月11日前后将集中公布10月数据,相信届时我们将会得到更多的数据支持。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     美联储是否“较长时间维持低利率”主要取决于三个指标:1)实际消费支出增速是否恢复到历史平均水平之上;2)失业率是否趋势性见顶回落;3)通胀是否维持在可控范围之内。从目前数据来看,三者都不足以让美联储改变措辞,而失业率的趋势性见顶回落至少需要3个月的数据确认,这将导致至少在2010年3月份之前美联储不会改变“较长时间维持低利率”的措辞。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         本周焦点将是我国10月份的宏观经济数据,10月份宏观经济数据预计将与8、9两个月的数据一同印证中国基本面继续改善态势,有望对A股市场的近期表现形成支持。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         之前我们担心美元在跌破75关口后会有一波较大幅度的反弹,但是现在看来,美国10月份失业率数据仍在创新高,美联储也对此做出维持利率不变的反应,包括美股也并未出现较大幅度的调整;之前我们担心房地产优惠政策年底到期会对市场心理产生较大影响,现在对原先的担心稍做修正,认为到年底经济工作会议以前,国内政策面对市场的影响应会偏小;我们之前还担心创业板上市首日大炒后会持续下跌,从而带动主板中小盘股票调整,现在看来这种风险小了很多,创业板股票可能会以一种更为和缓的方式回归其价值区间。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             本周将公布CPI、PPI以及货币供应量等宏观经济数据,结合8、9月份两个月的宏观经济数据以及最新公布的广交会数据、10月份PMI数据,市场对“内需不足、外需乏力”的担忧有所缓解,对经济复苏持续性的信心有望进一步加强。此外,刚刚闭幕的G20会议在会后发表的联合公报中称“各国将继续保持经济刺激措施,直到全球经济复苏得到确认”,“政策退出”的噪声扰动减弱。未来一段时间,市场有望维持震荡慢牛行情。

         上证指数在2700-3100点之间箱体震荡两个多月,底部逐步抬高,顶部逐步上移,上周已经突破箱顶并有成交量持续放大配合。基于市场包含一切信息的假设,我们可以预判股市已经中期走强。预计本周沪深股市将震荡盘升,沪市阻力位在3300点附近,支撑位在3100点附近。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    避险和套息交易是影响目前美元汇率的主要因素,只要美联储不改变“较长时间维持低利率”的措辞,则套息交易仍将源源不绝,美元重回贬值通道有利于大宗商品价格和热钱流入。我们认为未来随着每个月外贸数据的公布,人民币升值预期将越来越大。同时由于美元将继续维持贬值趋势,未来热钱流入量也将越来越大,并成为市场表现持续超出市场预期的主要因素,A股市场将继续震荡上行。