市场气氛又趋乐观 量能支持再拓空间

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 当前人民币升值趋势不可避免，奥巴马访华将直接拉开人民币再次升值的序幕，外资有望成为助推下一轮行情的主动力。此外，资源品价格上调和行业内部整合将催生结构性行情，可以积极关注相关受益上市公司。短期配置银行、保险、券商以及地产等大金融类板块，以及煤炭、煤化工、农产品等行业。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     鉴于对本周及后期市场继续震荡向上的判断，建议投资者采取逢低吸纳的策略，适当提高股票的持仓比例，在3120点附近适当介入。个股方面，适量减持前期涨幅较大的医药及题材概念类个股，在重点关注消费类板块（商业零售、食品饮料、旅游、金融）和新能源（智能电网）的同时，适量配置前期涨幅不大的周期类板块（电力及其设备、铁路建设、钢铁、石化、交通运输）。本期推荐个股为新世界、宝新能源、中信证券、荣信股份、中国铁建。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             综合来看，目前市场处于强势特征，社会资金活跃，投资机会丰富，经济与业绩改善封杀了大盘向下空间，震荡向上仍是市场运行的主要趋势，不排除在事件驱动下加速上扬的可能性。目前是投资布局的好时机，机会远大于风险，百鸟在林不如一鸟在手。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         目前市场基本呈现底部不断抬高格局，我们维持11月份上证指数在3000-3300点的箱体运行判断，短期还有震荡上行空间，回调是逢低建仓的良机。需要引起关注的是北方持续特大降雪对未来经济产生的负面影响。策略上以低碳经济和消费主题为主线，适度关注通胀预期，我们建议本周重点关注：金风科技、上海电气、东百集团、陆家嘴、海通证券、中国铝业。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        总体看，市场走出调整趋势不会改变，很可能在权重股带动下突破平台挑战高点。短期看好内需外需复苏交集行业，包括汽车，工程机械，造纸，家电，通讯设备等。同时关注盈利预测有进一步上调空间的行业，如电力、保险、旅游综合、包装印刷、银行、电气设备等。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     A股市场在经济弱势平衡向V型反转的过渡期正在过去，市场在上市公司业绩恢复增长背景下重新开始上涨。同时出口好转预期也给市场增加了更多利好，市场未来会延续震荡向上格局，并将在美国去库存化进程中达到高峰。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     而在市场层面上，我们认为本周大盘维持震荡向上趋势的根本基础在于——以银行股为代表的权重板块具备稳固的估值重心。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 我们认为当前市场处于慢牛阶段：一方面经济由复苏向扩张转变，另一方面，经济扩张必然引起刺激政策退出或者宏观政策转变预期，我们相信经济上行力量会战胜政策退出预期的影响，但市场在这种博弈过程中继续呈慢牛的可能性较大。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 本周的策略建议依然是前瞻性地积极把握主题轮动的战术性机会。本周重点关注：奥巴马来访作为事件性冲击将开启新兴战略性产业的投资机会之门，根据我们对产业振兴规划的政策预期，新能源汽车与节能环保主题行情本周将继续深入。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 逻辑与原因：一、观望政策导致投资增速低于预期，消费对经济驱动力上升；二、人民币升值受益板块交易性机会有限；三、新兴战略产业的投资机会正向我们阔步走来；四、重点关注大消费行业与节能环保主题。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 从已公布的10月份宏观经济数据来看，我国经济回暖趋势十分明显，而美国、欧洲的经济数据总体上也是继续向好。在基本面继续好转情况下，我们判断本周市场仍将维持上升走势。本周市场仍将以主题投资为主，在众多主题中我们认为奥巴马访华将会成为其中的热点。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        我们此前持续推荐的内需相关板块，特别是周期性消费板块表现依然有望好于大盘。我们认为基本面向好趋势并没有改变，目前的估值水平和未来的盈利增长支持股市中期向上趋势，建议投资者耐心等待业绩复苏持续性的证实和对股市的推动。短期市场焦点可能集中在局部主题，包括奥巴马首次访华带来人民币升值预期的加强、新能源方面合作进展刺激相关板块、北方大雪天气带来的煤炭等相关板块的交易机会。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             另一方面，市场一片看多之声但无大涨总让人感觉不安。按照过去的经验，大盘短期内理应不会那般乐观。我们认为，12月份中央经济工作会议将决定未来资本市场走势，而在政策真空这段期间，大盘将保持区间震荡。从技术角度来看，领先指标已提前大盘见顶，市场情绪指标和超买超卖指标都处于风险区域。但市场仍处于多头趋势中，大盘可以通过高位震荡以消化技术指标的回调压力，3300点将是市场重要压力区域。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         当然后市股指上扬也不会一帆风顺，中长期投资者应该坚定持股耐心等待。建议投资者可逢低关注通胀预期下、基本面比较确定、近期涨幅较小的蓝筹股的中期投资机会，主要关注银行、地产、保险、券商以及有色金属等大类品种。另外建议继续关注商贸零售、食品饮料、医药、电力等防御类品种的阶段性投资机会。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            本周日奥巴马总统访华，中美两国元首将会就一系列问题展开讨论。首先是在低碳经济上的合作，其次是对人民币升值的讨论。建议投资者重点关注低碳经济、金融、地产、有色金属、煤炭、航空和造纸等板块。此外，消费类的商业零售、食品饮料仍值得投资者继续关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 投资者可把握在调结构背景下增持大消费概念板块，以及受益于通胀预期和政策扶持的农业板块。在主题投资方向可把握“奥巴马概念股”。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     （编辑 姚炯）

国元证券看 多	江海证券看 多	湘财证券看 多	银河证券看 多	东北证券看 多 10月份经济数据存在着不及预期的几个地方，进而引发了盘面震荡。但蓝筹股行情仍在蓄势中，尽管过去一周没有带来更多惊喜，不过有一则消息可能会给投资人一些启示：民生银行H股在香港大受追捧，包括索罗斯和厚朴基金在内均对民生银行H股产生浓厚兴趣。加上银行股A-H股股价倒挂，所以对于蓝筹股不妨抱着播种心态加以关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            上周国家统计局公布的10月份宏观经济运行数据显示当前经济景气度继续大幅回升，通胀趋势已经基本形成。伴随着通胀预期和货币财富效应的逐步释放，居民消费需求更加旺盛，内需对经济增长的贡献将有所增强，经济基本面进一步得到改善；当前资金活期化趋势在加快，从而保证市场流动性，居民储蓄搬家也有助于资产价格上涨；我们认为短期内政府会加强资本市场建设，推出一些新的融资渠道，鼓励居民投资，这对当前市场将产生积极影响。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         A股市场经过8月份以来的三个月调整，技术指标已明显好转。市场仍然处于多头格局，股指在3120点受到支撑后大多数个股表现仍然值得期待。在宏观形势转好和外围市场维持强势支撑下，A股后期有望展开一轮升势。本周股指波动范围为3120-3300点，本周市场关注的焦点是政策动向以及境外股市、汇市和期市走势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     尽管近期市场强势特征较为明显，投资机会丰富，但我们认为当前市场还只是处于预热阶段。盘中中小盘股票非常活跃，上海世博、迪士尼、海南旅游岛、甲流、重组等主题投资机会丰富， 这反映了私募基金、个人投资者的积极态度。相较之下，以基金为代表的主流机构则相对谨慎，大盘蓝筹股的表现明显弱于中小盘股票。根据以往经验，这是一波行情发动初期的典型特征。春江水暖鸭先知，作为市场最近距离的参与者与观察者，散户、社会游资、私募基金对市场的反应是最敏锐的，市场行情也常常在他们引导下发动起来。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            10月工业增加值大幅回升，预示着企业利润进入复苏阶段，市场普遍预测2009年上市公司业绩增速有望回到20%-25%之间，这一增速对3000点附近的股市构成较强支持；10月份居民储蓄大幅减少2507亿，显示储蓄搬家重新恢复，也预示着居民部门对通胀预期有所加强，资金更多的流向股市和房市。但最近4个月显示，储蓄搬家并不持续，出现一定的反复。如果未来两个月居民储蓄继续减少，则有利于资产价格上涨。      就本周而言，市场向上趋势没有发生变化，只是上涨节奏问题。缺乏大盘股的启动，个股行情相对较为精彩，而一旦大盘股王者归来，则个股行情要略打折扣。本周奥巴马访华预期将带来汇率方面的讨论，势必会通过大宗商品价格变化带来盘面震荡。投资策略上，低碳板块作为事件刺激型主题可加以关注，而钢铁和有色作为业绩环比增长最快的两个板块可以择机配置，煤炭则受到低温天气刺激可能导致价格上涨。
光大证券看 多	民生证券看 多	长江证券看 多	上海证券 看 多	招商证券看 多 目前市场在基本面上没有显著利空：1、工业增加值超预期，消费刺激政策将持续；2、静态估值处于历史平均值附近；3、资金供给保持充足：（1）中期内信贷将保持适度宽松。（2）贸易顺差带来外汇占款增加。（3）随着市场对人民币升值预期的强化，未来国际资金将越来越多地流入我国。（4）居民（在股市上的）边际投资倾向，表现为居民存款活期化；4、IPO对大盘的抑制不大；5、大小非解禁对市场压力不大。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 从盘面看，市场进入了非主流板块的表现期，投资风格指数分化明显，小盘与中盘指数涨幅幅居前，中高市盈率指数明显领先低市盈率指数，微利股、亏损股表现明显好于绩优股。短期看，以消费类为代表的非周期性行业和以ST为代表的重组板块有可能继续有所表现：首先，从10月经济数据看到，在投资增速低于市场预期的同时，消费增长却高于市场预期；其次，从业绩和估值看，消费类股票在上一轮行情中涨幅低于指数，有补涨要求；再次，从时间窗口看，岁末年初是重组密集期。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         9、10月份外贸数据转好从一个侧面验证了我们的判断，世界经济确已开始了弱势复苏过程，有效需求在发达经济体生产企稳背景下呈现出回升态势。尤其值得我们引起注意的是，10月份对美国出口同比降幅已收窄至10%以内。美国经济在度过三季度的过渡期之后，四季度补库存也将有望开始；其零售业对我国出口一般有2-3个月的提前预示作用，而8月份美国零售同比增速首次见底回升也显示出四季度我国出口状况将有望进一步好转。综合以上几点因素，我们认为我国11、12月份外贸数据有大幅超预期可能。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             虽然观望政策导致10月份房地产行业供给端数据低于预期，进而使投资增速小幅波动，但消费的超预期增长增强了市场对经济复苏趋势巩固的信心。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             经济扩张阶段正在逐步临近：根据工业增长和GDP之间的关系推断，经济增速已经回升至双位数；从拉动力量看，内需总体上维持了8月份以来走平趋势，出口增速回升是拉动工业产出继续回升的重要边际因素；外部因素仍支持这一格局的延续：美国ISM进口指数仍呈扩张状态；日本M2增长创出了2004年以来新高，货币扩张取得了一定成效；欧元区经济第三季度环比增长0.4％，表明正在走出衰退；另外，经济扩张期的临近也得到了中观数据验证：钢铁库存近期出现下降，钢价企稳反弹趋势进一步明朗。      着眼于未来三个月，我们认为，宏观经济基本面、政策面、企业盈利和市场面因素都支持市场继续向好，因此继续看好大盘。本周关注的焦点：1、美国总统奥巴马于11月15-18日首次访华，预期他将重提关于新能源发展、气候问题等。本周新能源、节能减排和低碳经济可能迎来交易性机会；2、美元指数和人民币NDF汇率走势；3、房市刺激政策的动向。
东方证券看 多	中信建投看 多	中金公司 看 平	国泰君安看 平	中原证券看 多 10月M1增速达到32.03%，M2增速为29.42%，两者增速差呈现不断扩大趋势。具体看，如果扣除M1中的现金变化，今年10月份企业活期存款增加了6865亿元，由于企业总的存款增加2106亿元，因此反推定期存款肯定出现了大幅减少（估计约4000-5000亿元左右），存款活期化趋势非常明晰。根据历史经验，活期存款增速快于定期存款增速时，相对有利于股票市场上行。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 从市场风格指数来看，上周配股指数、低价股指数和中价股指数涨幅居前，而高价股指数、大盘股指数和绩优股指数涨幅落后，表明市场更加看重题材性的内容，对业绩的重视程度有所减弱。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             上周公布的宏观经济数据显示我国经济基本面在继续改善，但市场反应却相对平淡。这种明显“背离”的原因是市场之前已经对经济数据向好有所反应，而投资者仓位较高的现象也使指数短期上行动力不足。在这种情况下，除非出现比较明显的刺激因素，短期市场可能缺乏大幅上扬的动力，继续维持“整体平淡、局部活跃”的态势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         整体来看，对资产泡沫的担忧使得A股上攻动力不足，但在经济持续回暖情况下A股暴跌可能性较小。现在流动性似乎成为矛盾的共同体，既表现充裕的一面又表现趋紧一面，这体现出市场的谨慎，上下两难。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         经过前一周的快速上扬之后，上周A股呈现高位窄幅蓄势震荡态势，周五午后确认近期调整低点之后股指再创近期收盘新高。虽然权重股的低迷表现制约了股指短期上扬势头，但中国宏观经济强劲复苏、企业盈利预期的进一步提升、流动性继续向好以及周边市场的良好表现封杀了股指回调空间。随着市场做多信心的逐步提升，后市上证综指继续震荡上扬的可能性较大，本周A股有望持续挑战新高。      基于未来两个季度上市公司盈利增长明确以及政策相对稳定的良好预期，在企业盈利增长和流动性提升的双重作用下，我们继续维持A股市场将震荡向上的乐观态度。本周建议重点关注受益于新疆基础设施建设的天山股份、青松建化、新疆城建、八一钢铁、国统股份以及具有区域行业优势的天利高新、中泰化学。此外特变电工、天富热电、美克股份也值得关注。