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      | 4版:大智慧机构股票池
    机构股票池·中线成长股
    大单投注站·短线热门股
    证券通:研究显示一致预期大幅调高品种追踪
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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    2009年11月22日      来源:上海证券报      作者:

                公司房地产业务进入快速发展期,近日转让高泰公司部分股权给中核建中,一方面标志着高泰核燃料锆管包鞘技术成熟,另一方面标志着中核总、嘉宝集团和高泰公司在利益和行动上将趋于统一。近日大幅拉升后短调缩量,仍有上攻潜力,可介入。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     公司是国家大型节能电光源制造企业,生产规模、技术和工艺在国内同行业中处于领先水平,另外其作为国家级唯一的电光源企业技术中心,产品技术开发和储备国内领先。近期国家对节能减排安排一系列的政策支持和优惠措施,公司将是主要受益者。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                伊力特(600197)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 上海电气(601727)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                公司是西部最大的白酒生产企业,伊力牌白酒系列产品在国内具有一定知名度,报表显示毛利率高达49.32%,盈利能力强。公司还涉足煤化工、电池碳酸锂、持股期货公司等。该股上升通道有加速上攻迹象,可参与。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司与西门子、ABB等国际制造商建立战略合作关系。公司换股吸收合并上电股份后,成为集大型电力设备、轨道交通设备、环保设备为一体的上市公司。公司募集资金主要用于风电和核电项目的发展,未来将受益于新能源行业的快速发展。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                陕西金叶(000812)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             中科三环(000970)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                公司主要从事烟标印刷,大股东更换后对历史遗留问题清理良好。公司在朱宏路老厂区的改造进展顺利,涉足的教育产业也开始带来正收益。目前走势已形成放量突破上升通道加速之势,连续攻克9月中旬及8月初高点后,上升空间已打开,可跟进。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司主要从事稀土永磁和新型磁性材料及其应用产品的研究,是中国最大、全球第二大钕铁硼永磁材料制造商。公司正在积极推进钕铁硼磁体在风力电机和混合动力汽车的应用,预计随着风力发电机组和混合动力汽车的普及,公司收入可望进入快速增长期。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                鉴于公司进入发力提速的新成长阶段,与资本市场互动加强,土地储备增加潜力大,海南战略开花结果,以及今年以来公司在医药、新能源和创投业务发展势头良好,维持增持评级。由于公司锂电池前景看好,该股将面临交易性机会。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司是国内基本金属矿业龙头,同时也是西部最具竞争力的资源开发企业之一,经营一体化的基本金属开采、冶炼及贸易业务,近几个月来,该股围绕半年线反复震荡整理,技术上调整非常充分,目前技术指标已基本调整到位,后市有望酝酿恢复性行情。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                上海莱士(002252)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             步步高(002251)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                公司目前有8个浆站正常采浆,预计2009年投浆250吨,2010年血制品收入将大幅增长,而血制品行业进入具有壁垒,行业景气将至2013年,未来2-3年公司将保持跨速增长。预计公司2009-2011年业绩分别为0.79、1.03和1.35元,维持公司增持的投资评级。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             公司及控股子公司立足于中小城市,以密集式开店、双业态、跨区域发展模式,以统一品牌向客户提供商品零售服务。近期该股逐渐盘出阶段性底部,盘中量能明显放大,有资金关注迹象,短线充分洗盘后有望震荡走高,建议关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                中国南车(601766)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             交通银行(601328)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                铁道部2010年第一次客车招标数量达到2000辆对中国南车明年上半年业绩带来利好,而GE运输系统集团与南车合资企业将提升公司内燃机车竞争力,并有利于提升公司拓展海外市场的能力,近期可以说是利好不断,维持公司买入的投资评级。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        公司是我国第五大商业银行。二级市场上看,该股近三个月来一直围绕半年线反复震荡蓄势,走势明显滞后于大盘指数和银行板块,鉴于公司基本面优良且阶段性调整非常充分,后市有望酝酿恢复性上扬行情,建议投资者积极关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                点评:交银成长(519692) 的选股思路是坚持自下而上的原则,投资价值合理的成长性企业。这些公司必须具备良好的公司治理结构、长期的核心竞争力和持续为股东创造经济利润的能力,因为这些公司未来的成长的确定性和可预见性会非常强。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         点评:博时平衡(160507)的选股思路是关注由于资产价格上涨及中国内需崛起带来的投资机会,也关注居民财富积累与精致生活相关的商品,如地产、高端消费品等,并进而带动相关服务业。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                就其重仓股来说,亚泰集团目前的看点主要在于金融领域的股权投资,而在其水泥的主营业务领域,目前在吉林、黑龙江等地拥有绝对的市场份额,产品价格影响力较大。与此同时,公司在水泥的上下产业链布局得当,未来的业绩增长趋势乐观,可跟踪。而华侨城的优势则在于其所处的地产业目前景气旺盛,尤其是类似于旅游地产等高端产品更是价涨量升,因此,公司的业绩成长性相对乐观。宝钢股份目前的产能拓展适逢钢材价格上涨的较佳行业背景,业绩弹性较大,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    就其重仓股来说,莫高股份近年来加大了对葡萄酒的投资力度,利用募集资金项目投资的莫高国际酒庄投资额超过3亿元,占地面积14000平方米,是国内唯一的、最大的地下单体文化酒窖,国际酒庄建成后,莫高的葡萄酒产能将从不到1万吨提升至近3万吨,因此,享有独特资源优势的莫高股份的产能拓展之后,有望获得高成长的契机。而泸州老窖的投资机会则来源于高端白酒销售总量的提升以及华西证券股权所带来的估值溢价预期,尤其是近期券商股渐趋活跃,可跟踪。而国电电力主要在于电力需求复苏及公司大渡河水电投资进入回报期,业绩的成长性相对突出,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                点评:上投内需(163705)的选股思路主要有两个,一是根据我国经济发展新特点,尤其是内需得到激活的趋势中寻找投资机会,关注内需驱动型公司的增长机会,特别是终端消费类行业,如商业和家电等传统行业或公司。二是根据国家未来的战略性产业方向选择个股,如节能环保产业、新能源领域等。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     点评:信诚四季(165501)的选股思路主要有三个,一是看好和内需相关的优势公司,相信庞大的国内市场一定会孕育出一批大市值公司。二是看好承接全球产业转移积极影响的公司。三是考虑到较充裕的流动性和强劲的人气,也关注各阶段的主题投资机会。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                就其重仓股来说,江南高纤产能持续拓展,其中高强纤维是无纺布高档婴儿纸尿裤生产原料,产品提供给宝洁等国际卫生用品巨头。目前ES纤维供不应求,公司在国内还没有竞争对手,随着产能释放,公司业绩成长趋势相对乐观。而贵州茅台则得益于居民收入提升后的消费升级趋势及公司独特的自然资源禀赋,从而获得一定的自主定价权,故业绩成长性相对确定。置信电气则得益于节能减排政策的推进以及我国公司与各省电网形成的推广公司产品的利益共同体,成长前景相对乐观。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                就其重仓股来说,开创国际主营远洋捕捞,受益于国家产业政策的扶持,未来的发展前景较为乐观。与此同时,居民消费结构升级拉动远洋捕捞的趋势较为明显,因此,预计公司捕捞业务的毛利率应该在18%左右,维持着相对高企的盈利能力。而且,公司未来的规模扩张也较为乐观,故目前估值低企,建议跟踪。而保利地产则在于百亿元的预收帐款锁定了公司的业绩成长趋势,而且拥有庞大的土地储备,未来业绩的成长性较为乐观。中材科技则在于公司积极向风电叶片产业转移,从而有效地把握住我国风电大发展的投资机会,目前估值略低估。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

    申银万国     嘉宝集团(600622)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          浙江阳光(600261)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    森洋投资
         策略:突破3255点是一标志性事件,目前上方不足200点,年内就解放3478点已变得越发现实,可关注中期上升通道已成形、基本面支持扎实的品种,上海本地股、酒类消费类及重组整合者可重点留意。     策略:政策总体偏暖、企业业绩环比增长态势良好、市场流动性也比较充足,大盘上冲动能较为充沛,操作上波段操作,关注权重蓝筹股和受益通货膨胀的行业与公司,不宜追高,注意控制仓位。
    证券通     中国宝安(000009)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         西部矿业(601168)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    九鼎德盛
         策略:未来市场可能出现两种情景:一是大象跳舞,小盘股歇息,这种“二八”行情会引领指数创年内新高;另外一种情景则是大象躁动但后续乏力,小盘股疯狂后持续调整,现在第一种情景的概率在增加。     策略:目前市场已选择向上突破,市场震荡盘升格局一时难改,投资者可密切关注消息面的变化和权重股的走势,从目前情况看,蛰伏多时的权重股有望全面启动,操作上建议投资者顺势而为,持有为主。
    交银成长     亚泰集团(600881)、华侨城(000069)、宝钢股份(600019)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  莫高股份(600543)、泸州老窖(000568)、国电电力(600795)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             博时平衡
         策略:由于西方主要资源消耗和进口国的货币竞相贬值,从而使得大宗商品和资源针对纸币上涨的长期趋势并没有改变,所以,自上而下看,超配资源型、资产性行业的战略方向还是基本不变。     策略:该基金判断,在全球央行开始收紧流动性之前,在货币体系寻找到新的均衡前,资产类股票的表现可能还会持续一段时期,同时,也高度关注中国实体经济的好转和由此产生的新的投资机会。
    上投内需     江南高纤(600527)、贵州茅台(600519)、置信电气(600517)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 开创国际(600097)、保利地产(600048)、中材科技(600970)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            信诚四季
         策略:当前A股的整体估值基本处于一种可接受状态,未来市场走向将处决于企业的盈利复苏进程,该基金根据当前经济态势,减持了金融地产行业,增持了医药、电力设备和消费品等行业。     策略:该基金认为未来宏观经济增速将在一个可持续的水平上稳定下来,未来将在消费服务民生等稳定增长行业、具备显著国际竞争优势的行业、节能减排相关行业、新兴产业等方面重点布局。