多空分歧不改市场乐观预期

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             投资者对发达市场经济增长的健康性和经济二次探底问题的担忧与新兴市场经济强劲复苏之势形成鲜明对比，国际短期资本流动近期再次加快涌入新兴市场。人民币升值预期强烈的我国成为热钱流入的最大载体，给国内资本市场带来充足的流动性，资产价格上涨有望持续。本周市场有两大主线：能源价改与股指期货预期。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             由于市场可能进入快速拉升格局，前期建议逢高出局的策略稍有改变，建议逢低吸纳。建议关注券商、保险、银行等金融板块，以及农业类个股和电子信息类板块。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 当前市场大小盘股票轮番活跃，风格转换再次成为各方讨论的话题。我们认为目前的市场风格切换正在酝酿中，建议投资者中线提高对大盘蓝筹股的关注度。但是市场风格变化一般不会在平稳运行中完成，大多时候都伴随着外力出现或者市场动荡。在当前市场条件下，这个外部条件有可能是宏观调控政策的明朗或者人民币升值预期的进一步加强。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             随着中央经济工作会议的即将召开，对政策的关注度重新成为近期市场的焦点。我们认为市场将重点关注两个方面：一是未来中国经济结构如何转型；二是货币政策将如何调整。在会议召开前夕市场容易产生观望情绪，而由于蓝筹股护盘迹象明显，大盘下跌空间有限。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             近期市场关注热点主要集中于新能源、资源、农业、消费等行业，结合未来市场风格转换趋势，本周我们重点关注：金风科技、东方电气、新中基、中国铝业、国投新集、中国太保。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 我们对于后市中期继续看多，中长期投资者应该保持耐心持股等待的坚定思路。建议投资者逢低关注通胀预期下、基本面比较确定、近期涨幅较小的蓝筹股的中期投资机会，主要关注银行、地产、保险、券商以及有色金属等大类品种。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             市场对中央经济工作会议可能讨论的政策退出问题比较担忧，我们认为短期宽松的政策环境仍将延续，但政策手段会更加灵活，央行货币回笼、银监会信贷监管的力度会加强。同时预计此次会议将会加大对调结构政策的推进力度，特别是消费政策和区域政策。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             如果风格再度切换，可以从两条主线来把握投资机会：第一，下阶段价格上涨空间大的行业，钢铁、水泥、玻璃、部分化工产品、航运、铝等价格上涨概率和空间更大；第二，受益于金融创新的中大市值行业的蓝筹股，特别关注证券、保险、银行以及其他年内涨幅较小的蓝筹股等。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                未来消费品和投资品行业的转换时点可以观察CPI和PPI之间的关系，当PPI趋势快速回升并超越CPI时，可以减持下游消费品行业而增持中游的原材料等投资品行业。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     本周我们推荐零售、白酒、电力设备、煤炭、钢铁。投资组合为东百集团、苏宁电器、武汉中百、泸州老窖、贵州茅台、许继电气、科陆电子、潞安环能、国阳新能、凌钢股份、鞍钢股份。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        中央经济工作会议将于11月底召开，对明年经济工作如何定调的问题明朗化之前，市场观望气氛将提升。再加上年底资金结算压力，可能引发A 股市场波动。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        行业配置方面，我们建议超配金融地产、上游（煤炭）和下游（汽车、旅游、商业和食品饮料、医药等部分日常消费品行业）；未来两三个月内，当PPI上行向CPI靠拢时减持下游而增持中游。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    首先，从技术面角度，上证指数接近前期高点进入成交密集区，压力较大；其次，市场成交量虽有放大但热点没有延续性，金融、地产等主流板块仍在等待政策明朗，做多意愿不强，而水电油气调价带来的公用事业板块对股指和市场人气的影响不大。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 确定性相对高的是，近期涨幅并非最领先而基本面依然维持向好趋势的部分板块可能获得补涨机会，包括地产、有色、工程机械、钢铁等，上周五水泥股的表现也表明存在这种可能性。短期重点关注个股金地集团、江西铜业、三一重工、宝钢股份。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     我们认为投资者可围绕四条线索把握当前市场热点：一是区域线索；二是涨价线索；三是低碳线索，四是重组线索。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             操作上建议投资者着眼中长线，布局一些明年高成长较为确定的个股，特别是一些抗通胀的高成长资源股，如神火股份、西山煤电、瑞贝卡、敦煌种业、青岛软控等。另外，目前进入了板块反复轮动阶段，稳健的投资者可关注一些近期累计涨幅较小且估值优势较为明显的个股，如银行、保险、高速公路、钢铁等。本周短线组合有中泰化学、柳化股份、深振业、特变电工。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     从市场风格看，还是中小市值股、题材股表现活跃，从时间上判断，岁末年初这种情况还会延续。随着政策明朗，主流板块机会也不能忽视，特别是着眼于明年布局应该侧重金融地产。但中期还是看好内需外需复苏交集的行业，包括汽车、工程机械、造纸、家电、通讯设备等。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         本周我们维持八成仓位不变，本周准备卖出宇通客车和东阿阿胶，并将所得的资金买入航天电子和创新置业。本周调整后的股票池包括：天地科技、金种子酒、北巴传媒、海通集团、吉林森工、恒生电子、大厦股份、西藏旅游、冠农股份、航天电子和创新置业。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    （编辑 姚炯）

国元证券看 多	江海证券看 多	湘财证券看 多	银河证券看 多	东北证券看 平 过去的一周有两个现象值得关注，第一，年初的时候管理层曾提及的在合适的时机展开资源价格改革的表述已经悄然展开，并且步伐或快于我们的预期。这也从另一个方面表明在经济确立回暖前提下通过资源品价格改革来调整经济增长结构的构想已经得到证实，而资源品价格的不断上涨在不久之后将逐步传导到企业生产成本中，从而进一步传导到CPI和PPI当中，通胀压力也存在快于预期的可能。第二，基金再度密集发行，储蓄搬家效应或将进一步显现。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            我们认为“调结构”是下一步经济政策的重点，也是中央经济工作会议的主要议题。而合理的价格调整，更多的遵循以市场导向为主的价格机制是其必然之举。随着水、油、电价格的陆续上调，资源价格改革全面启动，资源品价改提升了上游和下游终端消费品的价格上涨空间。然而在中游制造业产能过剩情形下加大了中游生产成本，缩小其盈利空间。因此，总的来看，短期内利好上游资源行业和下游消费品，长期来看低碳、智能电网等产业升级行业受益较大。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        上周两市在周一拉出长阳线之后，其后四天都在高位震荡整理。同时量能亦处本轮行情的最高点，显示市场在高位开始出现一定的分歧。但究其内在上涨因素，我们可以看到，多头主力依然处在控盘地位，个股在各种题材刺激下轮番走强。根据历史经验可以知道，深成指一般是领先于上证综指，而本轮深成指距离8月初的高点仅有百点之遥。在市场各方参与者面对日渐乐观的经济数据之后，对后市宏观经济的看法也在慢慢的由谨慎转为乐观，一旦投资者的预期发生改变，表现在二级市场上走势就是股价不断得到抬升。在上周连续四天出现整理情况下，主力有可能继续拉升，从而达到逼空的目的。                                                                                                                                                                                                 中央经济工作会议召开在即，大会将确定明年宏观调控政策的主基调，过去一年我国实行的大规模反周期政策会不会退出、何时退出、如何退出成为市场参与各方关注的焦点。目前市场强势特征明显，宏观经济复苏趋势良好、经济增长内生性动力增强和企业盈利持续回升，是股票市场上涨的主要推动力。预计后市股指中枢震荡上行是大趋势，但是短期表现还需要等待宏观调控政策的进一步明朗化。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     蓝筹股能否成为下一个推动力，市场风格能否成功转换成为近期市场关注的焦点。目前市场一致预期是宏观经济持续乐观、上市公司盈利预期亦可期待，基本面向好无疑为蓝筹股提供了良好的安全边际。我们认为蓝筹股行情需要具备两个条件：一是储蓄资金能够持续流入股市，二是业绩浪来临。      市场向好没有疑虑，短期即使有震荡也是以时间方式消化分歧以达成共识，国内外热钱和储蓄搬家决定了市场的资金充裕度之高。就本周而言，消息面较为平静，股指进一步上涨仍然可期。板块方面，市场目前进入了上涨的良性循环阶段，大盘蓝筹如银行、地产当仁不让具有投资价值，而有色、煤炭仍然是中期关注品种。
光大证券看 多	中原证券看 多	中信证券看 多	兴业证券 看 平	招商证券看 多 我们认为未来宏观经济将继续好转，对股市形成支撑。我们特别看好未来消费增长，因为：（1）从经济理论上说，促进消费是解决国际贸易失衡的根本出路；（2）从政治上说，我国对收入再分配进行改革，提高中下层居民收入，从而刺激消费是实现社会公平的需要；（3）从经济长期发展规律来看，刺激消费是转变经济发展方式的必然；（4）从经济现实来说，维持经济增长需要刺激消费；（5）从居民资产选择来说，通胀会提高居民消费倾向。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 上周A股继续震荡上扬，上证综指为近三个多月来首度企稳3300点整数关之上。奥巴马访华引发人民币升值预期，前十月国有企业营业收入恢复正增长，以及局部热点层出不穷等因素，均反复刺激投资者积极做多。考虑到中央经济工作会议即将召开，未来宏观政策仍将保持适当宽松，国内市场基本面及流动性继续向好，同时目前A股的估值水平较为合理，不支持股市大幅走低，后市上证综指继续震荡上扬的可能性较大。需要引起注意的是，上证综指在接近前期高点3478点时可能会遭遇一定的阻力。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        在经济复苏、美元贬值，国际流动性持续流入新兴市场的大背景下，我们坚定看好A股市场的中长期趋势。中国和海外经济体基本面变化不大，主导A股市场的主要是投资情绪。在这种情况下，投资者更加热衷于小盘股和题材股的投资，我们认为短期内小盘股行情还会延续，12月份风格可能会转向大盘股。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        近期A股呈现两个明显的偏好，一是小盘股偏好，二是消费品偏好。而以下因素则可能成为风格切换的现实催化剂：经济持续高增长，暴雪过后生产恢复带来需求集中释放；政府控制过剩行业产能力度超预期，上述因素有助于提升投资品偏好；小盘股向中大盘股转换的催化剂则来自金融创新加速推出的预期。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     经济扩张所支持的行情可能会有两个阶段：第一个阶段是CPI转正至明年一季度出口大斜率复苏过程结束时，届时市场可能会出现调整，经济扩张性行情第一阶段结束；第二阶段则是当CPI涨幅较高譬如达到3%-4%后，经济政策紧缩导致经济扩张及其所支持的行情告一段落，这个时间点可能在明年年中附近。目前我们仍只是处于经济复苏即将转变为扩张的过渡期，未来行情值得期待。      目前市场面上没有显著利空：（1）市场静态估值处于历史均值附近；（2）资金供给将保持充足；（3）IPO和公开增发对大盘抑制不大；（4）大小非解禁对市场压力不大。着眼于未来三个月，我们认为，宏观经济基本面、政策面、盈利和市场面因素都支持市场继续向好，因此继续看好大盘。虽然中间可能出现局部小波动，但中期内有可能超越3478点。
齐鲁证券看 多	民生证券看 平	中金公司 看 平	国泰君安看 多	国海证券看 多 上周央行公布了我国10月份金融机构人民币信贷收支表，数据显示机构资金、储蓄资金、热钱等外围资金继续加大投资力度，对10月份股市的盘升作出了进一步的诠释；财政部公布了我国10月份财政收支情况和国有及国有控股企业经营运行情况，我国财政收支进一步转好，国有及国有控股企业盈利增；跟踪近期的发审委审核速度，随着股市走强有逐步加快迹象。不过在流动性充裕背景下，扩容速度的小幅加快不会改变上升趋势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 上周市场放量上涨，股指有效突破3200点平台，在金融板块整体调整情况下，以中石油、中石化为代表的石化板块起到了中坚作用。本周市场由于技术面压力加大，政策面也在期待中央经济工作会议的召开，可能表现为强势震荡格局。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 上周市场涨幅超出我们的预期，主要是因为周一一个交易日的贡献。在随后的几个交易日内市场涨势趋缓，但局部题材活跃，包括雪灾后的煤炭板块、人民币升值、公用事业调价、电子元器件等题材个股表现相对突出。在市场增量资金有限、但基本面依然向好且估值相对合理情况下，市场可能继续维持“整体平淡、局部活跃”特征。小盘股相对大盘走强已经持续了一段时间，并且部分小盘行业估值也在逐步高企，未来市场风格存在小盘转向大盘的可能。但市场风格转换可能需要增量资金或者事件刺激等因素配合，时间点上存在不确定性。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     政策上，我们认为月底的经济工作会议将不会以“防通胀”作为重点，从而对市场面不会产生较大冲击；资金上，我们认为海外资金对人民币升值预期仍将继续，美元升值的时间窗口尚未到来，热钱流入仍然继续；市场风格上，我们认为大盘股补涨和小盘股下跌都有可能，在现在的时点上看前者可能性更大一些，这使得市场仍有上行空间。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         虽然近期A股市场在涨升过程中震荡明显，但成交量一直趋于活跃，局部牛市赚钱效应明显，使得市场人气汇聚。预计短线市场仍将获得新增买盘力量的推动，同时海外热钱涌入等信息也使市场对后续资金较为乐观。加上上周五出现的外围市场下跌A股市场却相对强势的走势特征，说明多头有一定的控盘能力，A股短线仍有进一步活跃趋势。      宏观经济继续向好，预计扩大内需、刺激消费、调整结构政策不变，中期流动性充裕，支持股市中期走强。预计本周沪深股市将继续震荡盘升，沪市阻力位在3450点附近，支撑位在3250点附近。投资策略建议坚持积极策略，保持高仓位，继续关注业绩增长的中小盘股和处于中期低位的强周期行业。