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    A7版:一周策略
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      | A7版:一周策略
    资金面持续承压 权重股积极护盘
    券商研究显示最具成长性品种追踪
    信息解读
    本周行业看台:铁路运输行业
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    资金面持续承压 权重股积极护盘
    2009年12月15日      来源:上海证券报      作者:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         按我们的理解,每次大盘股的骚动都是对小市值筹码的一次撞击。上周快速缩量反映出持筹者的犹豫和持币者的谨慎,日K线组合和技术指标已经转淡,小市值板块的高估值和大量浮筹将成为大盘短期调整的主要动力,本周小市值股票补跌可能性很大。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             前期蓝筹股的放量上涨为后期冲关奠定了基础,但由于放量过大会出现一定幅度的调整。上周大盘蓝筹股的调整在预料之中,投资者应当借助中小盘股的反弹机会适量减持该类股票,将减持资金逐步转移到大盘蓝筹股上。对于消费类板块中的商业零售、食品饮料、旅游和智能电网类个股仍可继续持有,本期推荐个股为中信证券、中国石化、中国太保、中国神华、大秦铁路。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        总体来看,预计短期大盘维持高位震荡格局。但是从中长期看,我国经济持续好转下企业盈利将大幅改善,股指中枢震荡上行是大趋势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     我们对目前宏观形势的判断是宏观数据继续向好,信贷增速处于合理规模,通胀预期已经来临,但近期股市表现似乎和居民储蓄存款流向有密切关系。储蓄搬家一度被市场认为是跨年度行情的有力支持,但11月份却是居民户存款增加533亿元,市场期待的储蓄搬家现象并未出现,这对跨年度行情和市场风格转换预期产生了较大压力。而从目前市场扩容来看,新股发行明显加快,中国银行的融资压力比较迫切。在融资压力制约下,12月份剩下的几周行情似乎不容乐观。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         基于对通胀主题和新能源板块的关注,本周我们重点关注北大荒、亚盛集团、顺鑫农业、天威保变、东方电气、哈空调。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        受限于资金,风格平衡中往往伴随着市场震荡。临近年终做业绩、资金结算压力,可能引发各方投资者兑现利润的冲动,加上近期新股密集发行,A股市场资金面有一定的压力,并将引发短期波动。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    从短期看,本周市场热点仍将较为反复。但从中期看,市场热点形散而神不散,即投资者应循政策轨迹,把握“通胀及消费”两大主线。本周短线宝组合有三友化工、*ST天方、隧道股份、大众公用。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 本周共有10只新股发行,其中周三发行的8只创业板股票和周五发行的2只中小板股票将出现申购撞车;而周五发行的中小板又会和12月21日发行的大盘股中国北车出现申购撞车。新股申购的冻结资金将超过9000亿元,12月A股市场股权融资额突破月度供给“转向阀值”将成为确定性事件,扩容对市场形成的不是心理影响而是现实压力。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             经济从复苏向扩张期转变过程、以及经济扩张初期(CPI转正初期),股市是慢牛,这是一系列因素发生变化的必然结果:流动性要由信贷支持逐步转变为靠居民储蓄外流支持;随着流动性特征转换,市场需要等待业绩回升、消化估值压力;市场预期则表现为经济扩张、物价转正后政策预期的不确定性等。到了经济扩张中期,上述因素转换成功,股市有望加速上行。到了经济扩张末期,行情面临结束风险。目前市场只是处在经济扩张初期,依然是慢牛,也是能量积聚阶段。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             风格特征上,在小盘成长和中大价值股之间适度平衡。受益于业绩增长的中大市值行业的蓝筹股,关注证券、保险、银行以及其他年内涨幅较小的蓝筹股等。结合资金面因素,特别关注市值稍小的二线蓝筹;行业配置上,一是重点关注PPI同比从0%到5%回升阶段最有可能获得超额收益的钢铁、化工等原材料行业。二是把握岁末年初政策红利驱动下的农业;年报高增的TMT、智能电网等行业的结构性机会。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             本周我们建议超配商业零售与地产,而在CPI转正回升过程中,农产品、水产品相关公司具备表现机会。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     行业方面,在市场风险偏好不强背景下,有实际利好支持、行业基本面好转趋势相对明确的行业将是近期市场关注的重点。短期来看,包括钢铁、建材、机械、农业及受年底节假日消费支持的零售、食品饮料等板块有望跑赢市场。尽管上周大小盘风格转换并未开始,但鉴于大小盘之间估值差异已经达到历史最高水平,大小盘风格轮换的可能性在逐步增大。本周重点推荐个股,宝钢股份、海螺水泥、三一重工、广州友谊、五粮液。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2010年经济政策明朗后市场反映冷淡,热点持续性不强,市场热情不足,整体呈缩量调整格局。地产股走势分化,二三线地产股受城镇化建设预期影响走势较好,一线地产受个人住房转让营业税影响走势偏弱;近期粮食、油类价格上涨较快11月CPI转正,农业类股票上涨得到一定支撑;油价若能维持稳定,石油石化有再次走强可能。建议密切关注央行的2010年信贷目标,关注财政部年末的重点投资方向。对整体市场维持中性判断,建议重点关注农业股和石油石化。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    上周市场并没有出现风格大转换,但从市场回落走势我们依然可以看到市场风格仍将转换的征兆。上周沪深两市总体缩量超过30%,但大盘银行等缩量仅仅20%,所以转换苗头依然不减,只是由于其他因素可能导致风格转换延后而已。我们认为大盘蓝筹下跌空间有限,未来市场风格将依然进行转换,只是完成转换可能是个循序渐进过程,投资者需要耐心等待。而市场一旦完成风格转换,市场将进入另一波较大级别的上升周期。

         在发行了40亿元地方债之后仍需筹措资金配合中央投资计划情形下,安徽省加强国有股权的转让和同央企之间的合作。我们推测,央皖企业的合作更可能以省属企业被兼并、控股等方式进行,由此带来的资产重组投资机会值得关注。行业配置:继续中线关注新疆板块、基本面持续改善的钢铁、煤炭、以及化工行业中的氯碱、化肥、化纤板块短期也有阶段性机会。同时继续看好消费板块短线和中线配置价值,重点关注家电、商业连锁、食品饮料。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         (编辑 姚炯)

    国元证券看 平                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 浙商证券看 空                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             湘财证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     银河证券看 平                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    东北证券看 空

    随着政策逐渐清晰,市场预期也逐渐确定,求稳是主基调。因此,对投资机会而言,自下而上精选成长型个股将是获得绝对投资收益的选择。但在市场预期逐渐明朗的同时,阴霾并未驱散:其一,扩容显著提速,过去一周不仅小盘股发行扩容,大盘股同样扩容,打破了原先一个月一只大盘股的发行惯例。而本周发行的新股数量超过上一周,一级市场分流难免。其二,近期美元反弹速度和幅度超过前期,短期来看,随着议息日美联储声明的明确,美元或重回弱市整理。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     近几周来大盘股板块只是偶尔盘中走强,但缺乏持续性,而小盘股总体仍然保持了相对强势,这样的风格表现特征让不少投资者疑惑万分。我们认为,大盘风格自8月初开始转弱,小盘风格则开始走强。根据历史风格转换周期,大约需要5-6个月。也就是说,要到元旦前后才有望出现转换,目前转换时机还不够成熟,但也许可以说目前处在风格转换的酝酿期。从历史经验看,风格转换往往伴随大盘短期调整。主流资金从一个板块转到另一个板块需要时间,也会导致市场波动。因此,在波动调整中完成风格转换有其合理性。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 从技术上看,上周上证指数跌破20日均线,深成指只跌破5日均线但站在10日和20日均线之上,两市都在30日均线上有支撑。结合成交量情况显示市场多空双方参与度不高,市场处于一个谨慎态势,后市有可能维持一个调整震荡格局,面临方向选择。在中期指标向上前提下,我们仍倾向于市场向上突破。本周沪指波动区间为3220-3330点,市场热点有望从中小盘股向大盘蓝筹股过度。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    上周公布的一系列宏观经济数据表明我国经济已经走出通缩、进入到持续复苏通道中。但在经济持续向好大背景下,当前市场资金面面临较大压力:首先,中央经济工作会议提出,“积极扩大直接融资”,我们判断明年整体融资压力将大于今年;其次,银行股再融资疑云未散,将始终成为市场最大的顾虑,也将制约银行股表现;第三,扩容速度加快,市场短期资金面压力增大。近期新股进入密集发行期,初步估计A股市场四季度融资规模将逾1600亿元,尤其是最近两周股票密集发行将对市场造成沉重压力;第四,资金年底效应显现。临近年底,部分机构资金将进入结算期,从而撤离二级市场,我们预计这将在本月中上旬基本完成。                                                                                                                                                    中央经济工作会议和11月的宏观数据都显示宏观经济继续处于向好阶段,但上周市场上涨乏力特征较为明显,其背后的逻辑是近期供求关系制约了股指上行空间。

         就本周来看,市场目前到了一个充满争议的边缘,即风格转换能否成功。我们认为,对于未来蓝筹股的表现没有必要悲观,静待催化剂的来临或许是不错的选择。短期内股指继续震荡整理可能性较大,超跌、涨价预期主题值得期待,如钢铁、化工、煤炭、农产品等,而中小板中不少业绩明确且有高送转预期股亦可关注。

    光大证券看 平                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 兴业证券看 空                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             国海证券看 空                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     上海证券 看 空                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 招商证券看 多

    宏观基本面上,11月份经济指标基本符合预期;政策面上,宏观政策定调符合预期,房市政策偏空;市场面上,存在利空因素:(1)市场静态估值处于历史平均值附近。(2)资金供给中期充足,短期关注美元升值带来的利空。(3)中期内大盘面临一定的融资压力。(4)中期内需关注大小非解禁压力。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        上周公布的11月宏观数据显示,我国CPI告别了长达9个月的负增长时代,PPI降幅明显收窄并有望在短期内转正,已迈入温和通胀区间。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         本周大盘仍将延续上周的调整趋势:首先,目前上证指数再度切入前期高位密集区,市场追高意愿谨慎,同时上档面临较大的解套压力,这显示前期套牢浮码仍需时间震荡消化。其次,年底新股发行速度明显加大,供求压力将会加剧大盘震荡。其中上周9只新股扎堆发行,本周IPO更是高达10只。另外,从历史经验看,年底不少机构面临着资金回笼压力,这使得资金供求压力雪上加霜。但我们认为,近期的调整仅是上升中继型调整。即在经济复苏及通胀预期下,大盘中期震荡向上趋势未改。因此,近期若出现急挫,不失为轻仓者逢低介入的良机。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 “股票是有重量的”,缩量横盘趋势不会长久维持。年末融资潮压力是分流资金导致市场失血的原因,但我们认为缩量的深层原因是来自宏观与政策层面的超预期推动力弱化,以及政策面的“外松内紧”迹象出现,进而折射出市场忧虑心态与对预期的修正。基于上述分析,我们对本周市场趋势判断为震荡盘落。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 尽管有去年同期基数较低的原因,但我们仍然认为,CPI转正标志着经济周期正在由复苏阶段向扩张阶段转变,它显示了总需求正在逐步超越总供给。我们认为内需扩散效应和外需复苏,以及通胀上行阶段库存周期的上升会成为未来促成经济加速的重要因素。

         总体来说,目前宏观经济指标、政策基本符合预期,流动性尚属宽裕,但市场面上融资压力一直抑制着市场。这些因素的合力似乎达到了一个平衡,使大盘在短期内失去方向,既涨不上去,又跌不下来。我们认为,在股指反弹到前期密集成交区附近、短期内各种利空因素累积、大盘面临风格转换情况下,出现这种局面也在情理之中。中期来看,宏观经济基本面、信贷和企业盈利仍然支持市场继续向好,因此继续看好大盘,而短期有一些利空因素会影响大盘上涨。

    东方证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 国金证券看 平                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             中金公司 看 平                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    山西证券看 平                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    德邦证券看 多

    适度宽松货币政策支持下,流动性总体维持宽裕,继续关注海外输入性因素推升国内通胀的可能性。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            年前市场资金面受到基金仓位较高、做多动力不足的压制,同时还受到对明年经济信心不足和政策退出不确定性的影响,海外市场近期的波动也是投资者观望的原因之一。市场将维持震荡格局,投资者似乎在等待明年1月份信贷落地之后再进行抉择。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     中央经济工作会议闭幕,政策支持基调大体并没有变化,政策在明朗化。但市场走势明显弱于我们之前的预期,主要原因在于:1)流动性的短期压力依然存在;2)对政策微调的担心依然存在;3)基本面没有太多超预期;4)海外市场近期波动加大,部分地区债务风险有上升趋势。我们认为,这些方面的压力有可能继续主导近期市场,市场仍将延续震荡走势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        中央经济工作会议闭幕,2010年的经济政策开始明朗。会议对明年经济安排的多数内容与此前市场预测基本一致,但部分提法仍然超出市场预期;近期影响外围市场的主要事件是评级机构惠誉宣布将希腊的信用评级从“A-”降至“BBB+”,理由是担心该国公共财政状况的中期前景。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             从技术角度来看,市场依然处于上升轨道中。9月29日、11月2日和11月27日的低点基本处于同一上升轨道下轨,而恰恰在11月27日市场低点得到有效支撑,上周调整尚未触及市场下轨。因此即使再次缩量调整,其空间恐怕也非常有限。此外,在关键技术点位各技术指标开始转好,多数指标依然处于强势区域。

         观察从1996年至2009年共14个元旦前后市场表现可以发现,随着新年到来,市场上涨概率逐步提高。尤其是在前一年的最后5天和年初的15天这段时间里,市场获得正回报概率远远高于下跌。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             我们判断明年经济将进入扩张期,企业经营情况的转好将使得企业明年自主投资意愿增强、资金活化加快将使得货币流通速度上升、房地产新开工的持续将使得需求继续维持在高位甚至有所扩张。与此同时,随着CPI转正,对通胀预期的关注度也会上升,因此我们也建议同时前瞻的按照通胀预期线索进行布局,主要是上游资源品、中游原材料、农产品;金融行业也会受益于经济扩张,息差扩大将使得银行能够吸收下游的利润。此外, 中央经济工作会议提出稳步推进城镇化,我们判断城镇化有望成为明年扩大内需的一个重要着力点。