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  • 5:大鳄猎物·资金热钱流向
  • 6:个股点评
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  • 8:机构视点·投资策略
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      | 4版:大智慧机构股票池
    机构股票池·中线成长股
    大单投注站·短线热门股
    机械股明年整体复苏 工程机械一马当先
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    证券通:研究显示一致预期大幅调高品种追踪
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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    2009年12月20日      来源:上海证券报      作者:

                     公司电瓷业务增长稳定,产品主要用于电网铁塔,国内新建电厂及电网改造等需求为其成长性提供保障。公司已公布定向增发4600万股,募资用于收购上游公司完善产业链,增发价不低于8.11元为市价支撑,中期趋势向上,短线震荡中可吸纳。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         公司两大核心优势业务是城市轨道交通隧道和越江公路隧道,在国内市场同行业中具有较强的竞争优势。因世博会,公司2009年业务收入将保持较高增速,而在世博后,凭借技术、经验优势,公司仍可在上海及海外业务拓展上有较大发展空间。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                长电科技(600584)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     特变电工(600089)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     公司是国内半导体封装第一大生产基地,技术优势明显,以电子元器件行业复苏为背景,其业绩弹性较佳,并涉物联网主题,三季报显示社保基金已介入。该股中期上升通道中平稳向上,可在短期下调通道中的下轨中择机吸纳。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         公司是重大装备制造业龙头之一,是我国重大装备制造业的骨干企业,拥有对外经济技术合作经营权和国家外援项目建设资质。公司合资设立的新疆新能源股份有限公司是我国目前规模较大的专业从事太阳能开发和利用的高新技术企业之一,未来发展空间较大。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                狮头股份(600539)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     紫江企业(600210)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     公司是中西部特种水泥生产龙头企业之一,中俄输油管建设、大型储油库项目等都对其产品有较多需求,最大看点在于资产整合,虽然在11月中旬作出澄清三个月内暂无具体动作,但也承认大股东在洽谈相关事宜,市场预期良好,可在企稳过程中吸纳。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司是国内规模最大、产品种类最齐全的包装材料上市公司,主营生产和销售各种PET瓶及瓶坯、瓶盖、标签等新型材料,垄断特征突出,行业龙头地位稳固。此外,公司目前控股和参股的房地产项目已为其带来了丰厚利润。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                申万组合:近期新股发行节奏过快,房地产调控政策突至,造成市场恐慌抛售,形态破位个股普跌,但从业绩基本面看,未来中期趋势仍有期待,建议选择有潜在整合预期的品种,适量参与,耐心持有。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                需求旺盛及反倾销导致国内呈味核苷酸供应紧张,价格创出20万/吨的新高,公司从中受益,随着市场需求恢复,苏氨酸价格强势坚挺,对公司业绩贡献将出乎市场所料,另外10月以来利巴韦林价格急剧走高,也将给公司带来意外的惊喜。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             公司主要从事啤酒、藏红花开发、加工及酒店旅游业,通过与嘉士伯的合资,公司提升了现有品牌价值,使其啤酒业务竞争力得到明显增强。二级市场上看,近期该股区域震荡调整,短线技术指标进入低位区,建议逢低关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                双鹭药业(002038)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     杭钢股份(600126)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                公司产品贝科2010年一季度有望进入北京、上海等主要城市医保目录,这将有利于贝科继续快速增长,而长效立生素、复合干扰素等新产品储备将成为公司未来业绩增长点,另外,2009年新收购的医药商业公司业绩稳定增长,将给其带来丰富的投资收益。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        公司主要产品为汽车用钢,其余包括机械用钢、五金用钢和矿用钢等。随着汽车强劲反弹和机械行业复苏,公司业绩有了大幅度回升,主要产品中69%的钢材质量达国际水平。技术上看,目前该股绝对涨幅较小,动态PB估值优势明显,建议关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                南玻A(000012)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         文山电力(600995)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                公司光复产业链基本完成技术储备,规模可快速扩张,只待需求回暖,而公司太阳能业务将在明年出现转折,可随着光复行业的增长获取更多地利润。另外,公司玻璃业务主要是围绕节能玻璃展开,看好公司在节能玻璃未来市场的拓展。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司主要经营供电和水力发电业务,由于文山州拥有丰富的水力资源,对电力需求较大,为公司发展提供了良好的环境,近年来公司基本面不断改善。技术上看,近期该股自9.99元跌至8元一线,短线跌幅过大,面临技术反弹,建议逢低关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                点评:华夏大盘(160305)的选股思路主要有两个:一是提前布局,对潜在的题材股或潜在的产业政策题材受益概念股予以配置,比如说海南旅游岛板块的布局就是最好的说明;二是对既拥有防御性也拥有题材溢价预期的医药股情有独钟,加大了配置力度。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        点评:华安成长(160407)的选股思路主要有两个:一是趋势投资。该基金根据市场的运行特征选择强势股。二是基本面方向的价值选股思路,即关注钢铁、工程机械、食品饮料、建筑、交通运输等涨幅较落后、相对估值较低的行业。同时关注随着经济复苏产业链延伸而出现行业复苏拐点的中游行业。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                就其重仓股来说,皖维高新受下游需求推动,公司产能利用率持续回升,逐渐接近2008年上半年的旺盛景气周期的水平。与此同时,公司产业链协同效应有所显现,而且公司拥有国元证券股权,所以,具有一定安全边际,可跟踪。而星湖科技则在于受到反倾销的积极影响,产品价格大幅回升,盈利增长前景乐观,受到基金等各路资金关注,目前估值略低,可跟踪。而片仔癀则在于产品的不可复制性赋予产品价格的稳定涨升趋势,业绩相对确定增长。与此同时,公司进行产品链的延伸,有望获得新的进展。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 就其重仓股来说,华泰股份目前主要拥有造纸与化工两块业务,其中化工业务发展趋势乐观,而且,公司积极进行产品结构调整,向铜版纸、文化纸以及化工等领域扩展。与此同时,公司还因非经常性损益等因素而赋予公司年报业绩预喜的题材催化剂。而湖北宜化则在于公司拥有磷矿资源等优势,同时,产能持续拓展,对于化工产品价格回升有着较大的业绩敏感性。而恒瑞医药则因为在仿制药方面独特的竞争优势,把握肿瘤药的发展趋势,药品储备丰富,未来业绩相对确定增长。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                点评: 鹏华创新(160613)的选股思路较为独特,强调先导产业的选股视角,因为如果经济复苏是可以延续的,那么,先导产业的景气会逐步向上传导。在景气传导中,产业竞争结构较好、供应紧平衡的行业,利润恢复的速度会更快,从而带来乐观的投资机会。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 点评:友邦盛世(164601)的选股思路主要有两个:一是经济复苏受益概念股,主要是指化工、钢铁、有色金属股等强周期性品种,因此经济复苏将强化此类个股的业绩弹性,从而有助于公司业绩的弹升;二是通胀受益概念股,在通胀背景下,煤炭等大宗商口价格或将复苏,故煤炭股成为该基金的重仓股。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                就其重仓股来说,南天信息目前拥有医药与信息两块业务,其中医药业务在收购云南植物药之后,业绩成长动能明显增强。而信息业务则由于受到银行自助化业务的发展,市场需求持续回升,ATM等销售收入前景不错。所以,该股基本面乐观,从而引发机构资金加仓。而荣信股份的优势则在于公司产品符合节能减排的产业政策方向,产品销售市场空间不断拓展,未来盈利能力有望持续回升,可跟踪。嘉宝集团则在于地产业务在近期相继进入回报期,而且公司拥有核电业务题材,赋予一定的股价催化剂。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     就其重仓股来说,大西洋的优势突出,因为焊接自动化和需求多元化促使焊接材料的产品结构升级。预计2010年国内普通焊条占焊材总量的比重下降至50%以下,这给占有20%市场份额的公司带来了较大发展空间。金牛能源不仅受益煤炭产品价格涨升,而且还在于投资铁路等产业链的延伸,且公司产能也有所拓展,从而意味着公司未来业绩发展趋势相对乐观。而北京银行则是因为拥有较广泛的人脉关系,在获得优质资产的贷款项目方面,拥有独到之处,业绩成长性也相对乐观。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

    申银万国     创元科技(000551)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 隧道股份(600820)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         森洋投资
         策略:近期新股发行节奏过快,房地产调控政策突至,造成市场恐慌抛售,形态破位个股普跌,但从业绩基本面看,未来中期趋势仍有期待,建议选择有潜在整合预期的品种,适量参与,耐心持有。     策略:本周连续四天下跌,沪综指向下逼近60日均线和3100点关口,市场心理面和资金面面临双重考验,但在宏观基本面向好和通胀预期的背景下,后市不宜过度悲观,建议关注受益通胀的行业和个股。
    证券通     星湖科技(600866)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              西藏发展(000752)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         九鼎德盛
         策略:全球主要经济体的经济复苏过程均已进入V型右侧,2010年全球主要经济体的GDP增速都会触及前期均值,之后出现分化,各个经济体将有不同的表现,而在短期扰动消失后,复苏迅速转入繁荣周期。     策略:本周沪深大盘收出长阴线,但量能并末放大,因此下周部分超跌品种、预期较佳品种面临表现机会,稳健投资者可关注反弹中是否有量能配合,可逢低短期操作,建议投资者操作上回避绩差股。
    华夏大盘皖维高新(600063)、星湖科技(600866)、片仔癀(600436)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            华泰股份(600308)、湖北宜化(000422)和恒瑞医药(600276)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        华安成长
         策略:该基金认为随着经济形势明朗化,将逐步提高股票仓位,并加大了对房地产、煤炭、钢铁等周期行业的投资力度,从区域经济增长和产业结构调整的角度寻找机会,对投资组合进行优化调整。     策略:该基金认为全球性的流动性泛滥将极大程度带来整体或局部的通胀预期,从而支撑上游原材料、资源、地产等行业的投资机会,故将以投资、消费、出口为主线,关注上中下游行业的轮动机会。
    鹏华创新南天信息(000948)、荣信股份(000123)、嘉宝集团(600622)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         大西洋(600558)、金牛能源(000937)和北京银行(601169)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         友邦盛世
         策略:该基金判断A股市场未来将整体趋稳,科技创新、低碳经济等对结构调整有支持并对未来经济发展产生重大意义的行业将是关注的重点;另外,金融、地产、资源、制造业等行业也值得关注。     策略:该基金认为经济数据表明,国内经济依旧在复苏的轨道中前进,未来出口有望接替投资拉动经济增长,故仍保持相对积极的投资思路,重点投资品种为煤炭股、金融股等经济增长受益品种。