重要支撑已然击破 技术反弹举步维艰

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    展望后市，市场调整趋势已经形成，市场心态转弱，市场风格已经转变。短期看，上周五创业板指数出现见底反弹，大盘股板块相对抗跌，本周在上证指数3000点之上可能出现短线反弹，不过中线调整趋势尚难改变。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                年末的市场担忧也是来年市场最大的不确定性因素，明年市场主要担心的就是政策和资金。宏观政策微调有较大空间，产业政策调整对市场冲击更直接；资金面供给端本身有隐患，但需求端更值得关注：大小非并没有解决，存量与增量扩容需要资金有较大承受力。不过年末之后信贷可能较快恢复，市场也会关注基本面的积极变化。现在还是经济好转初期，市场大幅下跌可能性不大，市场可能通过调整进行风格转换，看好蓝筹机会。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             近期新股发行速度之快超乎各方预期，加上临近年底部分资金进入结算期撤离市场，二级市场资金面存在压力。同时权重股受到压制，其中银行股融资压力凸现，地产政策开始收缩进一步打压市场人气。预计短期大盘将维持弱势震荡格局，投资者应该保持谨慎。从中长期看，我国经济持续好转下企业盈利大幅改善，股指中枢震荡上行是大趋势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     业绩向好决定市场中期向上趋势并未改变，目前影响短期市场进行调整的因素在未来有望逐步得到缓解，尤其是资金面因素。从资金需求角度来看，一方面，招商证券破发、中国重工目前略高于发行价的股价、创业板低中签率决定了机构资金申购新股热情会大大降低。另一方面，年初新股发行可能存在一定的空白期；从资金供给角度看，一方面，由于年底结算需要前期流出市场的资金可能重新回到市场。另一方面，1月份也是银行放贷高峰期，贷款增加和春节前资金难以迅速进入投资领域也使得部分资金渗透到股票市场。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                重点推荐受益明年初信贷重新放量且具有估值优势的银行股；受益行业整合、冬季需求旺盛和天气因素影响的煤炭股；受益一季度投资开工拉动的钢铁股以及受益全球经济复苏的航运股。同时继续配置零售、医药板块中业绩增长趋势明确的个股。本周推荐组合为特变电工、烟台万华、中国神华、宝钢股份、民生银行、天音控股、国药股份、中国远洋、潍柴动力、登海种业、兰花科创、健康元、北巴传媒。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     一年之计在于春，1至4月份面临2009年报及2010年一季报的披露。从历史经验可知，期间一些高成长股将会大幅领涨大盘。因此，近期一些明年高成长较为确定的个股随大盘泥沙俱下不失为投资者逢低介入的良机，如盘江股份、神火股份、瑞贝卡、敦煌种业等。本周短线宝组合有盘江股份、康缘药业、三友化工、*ST天方等。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         综合看来，目前年底新股发行速度过快，对市场造成比较大的负面影响。加上国家对房地产的实质调控，加剧了这种空头气氛。所以尽管宏观基本面较为良好，大盘中期将稳中趋好，但近期可能延续这种偏弱格局。从技术上看，大盘指数已经接近60日、120日（半年）均线，有出现反弹的可能。操作上，在控制仓位前提下区别对待，对于地产股、炒高的题材、次新股后市需持续保持谨慎，反弹宜减仓。同时可以利用市场震荡调整时机，逢低适当布局后市潜力板块个股，例如电子信息、小市值银行、石化等有业绩支撑的个股，个股本周推荐三维通信、北京银行、中国石化等。

     最终观点：中期内大盘将维持震荡调整格局。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         目前市场正通过风险释放以获得相对的安全边际，基于对2010年企业盈利增长的判断，我们认为上证指数在3000点及以下将会逐步获得估值上的支撑。在目前阶段性调整过程中，市场已然在进行风格转换，之后建议关注两个方面：1、从长期看，“调结构”背景下的内需消费仍是明年重点方向；2、在风格转换中首先关注基本面明确向好的行业，如券商、保险等。后续随着经济扩张信号的明确，可以加大对通胀预期线索的关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    大小盘风格转换已经开始，但这并不意味着大盘股有很大的上升空间，大小盘风格转换可能是由大小盘股的相对表现差异来实现。板块选择上，以盈利改善趋势强、估值具备相对优势、有短期股价刺激因素等为标准，同时在大小盘结构上更偏好大盘股。结合这些条件，我们短期相对看好银行、钢铁、建材、通信及技术设备、零售与白酒等板块的表现。此外，低碳板块可能由于哥本哈根会议并无实质性结果以及对小盘股风险偏好的减弱而出现回调。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 综合来看，美元升值、房地产负面政策、资金面偏紧可能仍将持续，但对市场的边际影响将减弱；大小盘转换已得到基本确认，流动性并非制约大盘股上涨的主要因素，但大盘股行情短期仍缺乏契机。从跌破60日均线股票数上看这次下跌力度要大于前两次，周K线显示上有强压制，向下3050点左右可能会有支撑。我们认为调整还未完成，不过跌速会减缓。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             需要指出的是，不必对于当前行情调整过于悲观，中大盘蓝筹股估值合理决定了震荡的性质不是系统性调整而是结构性分化。时间看长一些，行情将在盈利增长、融资压力和政策预期的博弈中震荡上行，受市场悲观情绪影响而导致的短期急跌正是买入之机。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         调整行情中建议持有估值偏低、市值适中的蓝筹股；抛弃题材股、适当减持大盘蓝筹股，进行仓位管理、风险控制；逢低布局高增长类股。逢低为明年一季度布局：一是春季投资高增的机会，特别是产能扩张受控的钢铁、水泥等行业；二是物价指数回升的受益行业，特别是当前价格回升相对滞后的钢铁、化肥、航运等。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     （编辑 姚炯）

国元证券看 多	浙商证券看 空	民生证券看 空	银河证券看 空	东海证券看 平 过去一周国内政策方面房地产靴子终于落地，市场情绪明显对地产股偏悲观；国外方面，引人瞩目的是美元继续反弹和美联储的议息声明，未来美联储加息时点可能早于多数机构的预期；市场方面有两个现象值得关注：第一是次新股的破发和新股上市次日的巨大跌幅；第二是中小市值个股活跃度明显降低。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     随着股票发行节奏的加快，12月份资金供求逐渐紧张。资金供求对股市的影响超越了宏观面的数据和政策，风格转变在震荡调整中逐步酝酿和成熟。结合风格指数的演绎，我们认为风格转换已经基本确认。需要特别指出的是，我们将这种转换称为弱势转换，即在调整行情中实现风格的转换。由于筹码转移需要一个过程，所以风格转换需要时间。并且由于资金从一个风格转移到另一个风格并不是同步实现的，而是抛出在前买入在后，所以往往出现大盘的震荡调整。只有在市场放量上涨的强势格局中，因为有场外资金的不断加入，才会出现风格强势转换。                                                                                                                                                                                                                         市场近期出现调整，主要原因有三：一是对政策的担忧。房地产对市场影响较大，相关的政策调整有较大的威慑作用；二是美元反弹导致资源期货价格调整，由于迪拜事件和年末美元回笼，反弹趋势可能继续；三就是资金面变化。新股发行加快，大小非减持加速，次新股解禁扩容，而资金供给却在回收，央行连续进行央票回笼，凸现了场内资金的紧张。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         虽然目前银行股已经成为A股市场的估值洼地，但是受制于巨额融资压力，短期内银行股难以有乐观表现，这也将进一步延迟市场风格转换进程；近期房地产市场的调控政策密集出台，政府一系列措施意味着房地产调控开始升温，房地产市场的金融杠杆难以继续提升。政策面收缩也许还需要时间才能传导到基本面上，但是各方对地产市场的预期已经开始谨慎。A股市场上地产板块低迷还将持续，并进一步打压市场人气。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         对于本周市场走势，综合多方面因素我们认为，总体上市场由于资金面压力等利空因素仍将维持弱势震荡格局，技术面存在反弹可能，在上周大幅下挫基础上市场继续向下大幅调整空间不大，预计本周股指将在半年线附近寻求支撑。      本周是年前倒数第二个交易周，大盘股扩容也出现了超预期的加速态势。除周一中国北车申购外，周五中国化学也将进行申购，而创业板和中小板累计也有9只新股发行，加上大小非的解禁压力，资金面压力可想而知，市场结构性泡沫挤压仍将持续。但美元强劲反弹后或将维持震荡格局，业绩浪也将如期展开。考虑到蓝筹股的低估值以及维稳效应，对于股指不应过度恐慌，关注政策之手对扩容节奏的调控力度，股指接连下跌后反弹已在酝酿之中。
光大证券看 空	中原证券看 多	中信证券看 平	国海证券 看 多	中投证券看 平 宏观基本面：投资者对2010年一、二季度的宏观指标有比较一致的、乐观的预期，因此月度宏观指标对股市的影响不再像之前那么大，除非它们显著地偏离市场预期。我们认为，未来一两个季度宏观经济指标符合市场一致预期的概率比较大，对股市的影响是中性的。政策面：未来3-6个月内出现超预期的利好宏观政策可能性不大；可能会出台一些刺激消费和产业调整的政策，会影响行业走势，但难以拉升大盘；一季度市场可能会重新开始担忧扩张性财政、货币政策退出问题。因此，未来3-6个月内政策对股市的影响是中性偏空。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                总体来看，由于国内市场基本面及流动性继续向好，不支持股市继续大幅走低。随着市场做多信心的逐步提升，后市上证综指继续震荡上扬的可能性较大。我们对于后市中期继续看多，中长期投资者应该保持持股耐心等待的坚定思路，预计强劲的基本面仍将为市场提供长期支持。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             而对内外部因素的未来变化，我们有三点判断：美元指数快速反弹期已过，未来将受限于77.8-79；地产调控预期仍将持续一段时间，甚至未来还有利空政策出台，但不代表政策全面转向；市场资金面阶段性趋势紧，但未来有望逐步缓解。基于这三个方面，本周市场波动可能加大，但整体上将维持区间运行态势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             展望大盘走势，资金供求压力仍将困扰近期走势，故年底大盘震荡反复难免。从历史经验看，年底不少机构面临着资金回笼压力。另外，年底挤IPO末班车的数量锐增。但市场对明年经济强劲复苏以及A股市场明年一季度上升行情等仍有较强的预期，这使得投资者特别是套牢的投资者也不敢肆意做空。加之银行等超级权重股有估值优势，其下跌抵抗走势很大程度上封杀了大盘下跌空间。因此，预计大盘下行空间也较为有限，上证指数3000点有较强支撑。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            上本周新股密集发行，行情总体出现下跌调整走势，大盘成交量保持萎缩状况，市场观望气氛较浓。由于国家采取系列抑制房价过快上涨的措施，地产股成为领跌品种，进一步挫伤了市场人气。      市场面：目前市场静态估值处于历史均值附近；中期内资金供给充足，短期内美元升值带来利空；中期内大盘面临一定融资压力，短期内大盘股IPO密集；中期内需关注大小非解禁压力。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                上市公司即将发布2009年度业绩，加上国内银行将于明年初重新大举放贷，均将制约A股市场下跌空间。经过连续上周大跌后当前上证综指已逼近半年线，市场风险短期内得到了较为充分的释放。考虑到未来宏观政策仍将保持适当宽松，同时目前A股的估值水平较为合理，股指再度大幅下跌的空间可能已不大，但后市股指上扬也不会一帆风顺。建议投资者可逢低关注通胀预期下基本面比较确定、近期涨幅较小的蓝筹股的中期投资机会，主要关注银行、保险、券商以及有色金属等大类品种。
联合证券看 空	国金证券看 平	中金公司 看 空	国泰君安看 空	兴业证券看 空 9月以来利好经济数据对市场的刺激效应衰退，负面的政策担忧对市场影响扩大。目前处在经济增长和结构平衡及防通胀的相机抉择中政策试探期，政策微调将是一个常态。从2004年和2008年宏观政策调控周期看，这个阶段政策虽然未改变股市整体趋势，但前期仍对股市带来明显冲击；美元反弹、扩容跃进，流动性承压。美国经济继续好转下美元持续反弹使人民币升值预期下降，同时10月来央行公开市场操作连续10周呈净回笼，外资流入规模缩减和央行回笼力度加大给流动性带来压力。12月以来新股发行和过会节奏明显加快，12月股票供给1220亿，资金供给1001亿元，资金面压力明显。                                                                                                                                                                                         我们认为在经济处于阶段性平稳期、同时在政策层面短期退出压力增大情况下，市场出现一定调整是对政策风险的平衡。我们判断影响市场的因素在短期仍会继续存在，导致市场继续处于博弈观望状态。但这些因素并不会构成方向性的转变，市场需要观察的是政策收缩压力的消化、以及经济扩张动力的增强，从现在看市场还要等待一段时间。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     虽然中期趋势未变，但短期政策紧于预期、资金面压力依然存在、海外市场可能持续疲弱、基本面改善到再次大幅超出预期需要时间，我们认为目前震荡走势将持续到明年年初，与市场多数预期的到一季度末之前将快速上扬走势不同。市场进入明确的上升通道需要确定性强的盈利和超预期的经济数据的支持。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 当前影响最大的应该还是美元，我们认为美元近3个月仍有走强趋势，因此美元升值引发的资金回流和心理层面对A股市场的压力将始终存在；前期一直被市场讨论的大小盘转换现在已基本得到确认，虽然大盘股上涨时点较难把握，但上证50已从8月来的连续跑输中小板指变为近期跑平或略微跑赢；市场一直担心流动性不足难以推动大盘股上涨，但从近期指数型基金发行来看，资金并不是最重要的问题。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         获利盘回吐、IPO资金压力、海外市场影响以及政策预期的不确定性等，将继续引发本周市场震荡，但是有望筑底。      短期看，政策微调频繁对市场的负面冲击继续，资金供求趋紧，基金备战来年做多情绪下降，预计市场调整将继续，暂看3000点支撑。