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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    2010年01月17日      来源:上海证券报      作者:
    申银万国         益民商业(600824)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         江淮动力(000816)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 天信投资

                公司以特色商业连锁为主,旗下包括天宝龙凤、古今内衣等成为稳定利润来源。上海世博商机将给公司带来业绩的增长。在上海国资整合大背景下,其背靠卢湾区国资委,未来也有资入注入预期。该股目前中期通道向上,均线附近可吸纳。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         近年来公司一直在探索业务转型的机会,最终选择了APU和家庭风机领域,目前APU产品主要是解决卡车怠速空转造成的污染等问题,符合低碳经济发展大方向。公司当前估值合理,市盈率低,考虑到公司增长性,值得低吸。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                国栋建设(600321)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         东方集团(600811)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                公司是西部最大的节能型人造板企业,共有三条板材生产线,总产能达到50万立方米每年,且公司自有林地12万亩,成本控制有利。公司每股净资产高达5.15元,每股资产公积金有3.39元,具备一定送转股的能力。当前该股走势趋强,可参与。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     公司控股的东方家园是国内最大的仓储式建材家居连锁超市,已经成为我国大型现代民族商业流通业的主导型企业。公司第三季度收入增长转正,反映了国内经济的强势复苏以及国内房地产市场刚性需求的释放。目前公司重估价值高,股价调整充分,值得低吸。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                中国宝安(000009)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         新希望(000876)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                公司以房地产、生物医药及新能源为三大主业,深圳扩区和海南国际旅游岛的主题给其一定催化剂,公司在锂电池正负极材料方向也处于国内领先地位。目前该股中期调整到位,10.5元一线支撑明显,反弹目标60日均线,可参与。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司通过增资等手段不断加大对屠宰业务的投入,有望出现减亏。去年第二季度开始乳品行业从三聚氰胺事件中快速恢复,乳制品价格将呈现上涨趋势,公司乳品业务有望成为公司最大的利润来源。目前该股走势趋于收敛,有望向上形成突破。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     策略:当前市场总体保持震荡平衡格局,个股热点仍比较活跃,可关注上海世博临近背景下的上海本地零售商业股的机会及政策扶助下的新能源、区域振兴题材,具有高送转潜力的品种也可多加留意。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            策略:存款准备金率上调对市场影响是短暂的,下周将公布2009年经济数据,经济强劲复苏在预期中,上市公司业绩恢复和增长较快,对股价形成支撑,下周可关注二线蓝筹及复苏相对滞后的行业个股。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

    证券通             海亮股份(002203)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         东北制药(000597)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 九鼎德盛

                     2009年四季度,国内铜材产量保持高位,预计2010年这种势头还将延续。美国对我国铜管的反倾销诉讼在2009年11月已通过初审,预计最终征收反倾销税在所难免。但由于公司对美国出口比例仅为10%,因此对公司业绩影响不大,给予增持评级。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2009年前三季度EPS为1.30元,动态PE15倍左右。公司为世界维生素C的四大生产巨头之一,规模优势非常明显。二级市场上看,同类浙江医药、新合成已创新高,其比价效应与技术形态显示其仍有机会,建议投资者不妨逢低关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                中国联通(600050)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         文山电力(600995)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                近期该股表现良好,近一个月跑赢上证综指14个百分点。当前的WCDMA网络已能够承载更大规模用户的入网,联通将对原有公司组织结构进行调整,整合如能顺利完成,将减少内部管理成本,提升公司的管理效率,未来投资机会很大,维持推荐评级。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        公司主要经营供电和水力发电业务,由于文山州拥有丰富的水力资源,并且地方经济处于恢复性增长阶段,对电力需求较大,为公司的发展提供了良好的环境。近年来公司发、供、售电量保持稳定增长,基本面不断改善。近期该股自9.99元跌至目前8.5元一线,短线跌幅过大,可逢低关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                天富热电(600509)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         武钢股份(600005)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                     公司业务可分为稳定增长、扎根新疆的主营业务和技术含量高、发展空间大的投资业务,目前市场仅考虑了公司主营业务的增长,但却低估了碳化硅业务的估值潜力。当前该股完全没有反映这一点,给予其买入投资评级,目标价为14元。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            公司拥有炼铁、炼钢、轧钢等完整的钢铁生产工艺流程。技术形态上看,该股自今年高点12.5元下跌以来,其反弹幅度较小,目前股价在7.6元附近整理,后市有可能出现波动性机会,投资者可逢低关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                     策略:本周市场受政策影响走势波动剧烈,但依旧在窄幅箱体区间内震荡。下周有重要经济数据公布,关注是否有超预期表现,建议投资者不必追涨杀跌,可关注年报业绩良好,有高送配的股票。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                策略:本周沪市周线再次收出放量中阴线,但由于指标股技术超跌有反弹意愿,下周初或仍保持震荡,但如量能不济,要小心市场震荡调整。下周操作策略可关注估值优势明显且技术指标超卖的品种。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

    华宝精选         山东药玻(600529)、中国联通(600050)、大秦铁路(601006)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 华工科技(000988)、荣信股份(002123)和杉杉股份(600884)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         金鹰小盘

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                点评:华宝精选(162410)的选股思路主要有两个:一是趋势投资的选时思路,继续保持对资产和资源类大蓝筹板块行业配置权重的同时,积极关注前期严重滞涨、中小市值的行业或板块。二是密切跟踪外向型龙头企业。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            点评:金鹰小盘(162102)的选股思路是坚持自身投资特色,关注新能源、新技术和新材料等适应中国经济可持续发展和长期科技竞争力趋势的个股,同时顺应经济复苏的行业受益逻辑,重点关注金融、地产、有色、煤炭、钢铁、化工等周期类行业品种。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                就其重仓股来说,山东药玻具有一定的成本转嫁能力,从而保证公司在近年来的毛利率维持在30%左右,从而意味着公司的净利润随着产能的拓展而扩张。与此同时,未来两年丁基胶塞市场混乱局面将随着中小型企业退出而得到改善,从而成为公司业绩提升的动力,发展前景广阔。而中国联通则由于在即将来临的3G时代拥有先发性优势,业绩的稳定性与成长动能均较为乐观,在近期明显有新增资金的加仓,可跟踪。而大秦铁路的优势则在于目前低估的估值以及拥有外延式增长的能量,有望成为山西铁路局整合旗下优质资产的平台,成长性较佳,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                就其重仓股来说,华工科技将激光、光器件、电子元器件、信息安全与防伪等四大业务模块确定为核心支柱产业,激光业务为公司的最大业务板块,有望成为公司业绩成长的牵引力量,故公司有可能正处于发展的拐点阶段,未来业绩增长有超出预期的可能机会,近期股价明显处于上升通道中,可积极跟踪。而荣信股份的优势也较为突出,符合国家节能产业发展的趋势,而且公司的产业链渐趋完善,未来的业绩成长性也相对突出,可跟踪。杉杉股份则在于业务组合较具优势,既拥有上游矿产资源优势,也拥有新能源电池业务。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                     策略:该基金认为企业盈利继续向好,环比盈利向好,尤其在家电、商业、汽车等内需消费向好数据的刺激下,有可能上调2010年盈利预期,并适当增加波段性操作机会,挖掘有核心竞争力的公司。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             策略:该基金认为投资与消费的乘数效应将加快释放,从消费、医药和出口板块中寻找可能超预期业绩增长的中小盘股,但如遭遇流动性紧缩或经济复苏可持续性出现反复,则适当降低仓位降低风险。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

    长信金利         星湖科技(600866)、恒生电子(600570)、中国神华(601088)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 新疆众和(600888)、首钢股份(000959)和泸州老窖(000568)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                东方精选

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                点评:长信金利(519995)的选股思路较为清晰,即以金融行业为核心,以地产为代表的资产类公司和以煤炭为代表的资源类公司为重点,同时以自下而上的思路选择那些值得长期投资的战略资产,尤其是产品竞争优势强,有一定自主定价权优势的优质股。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            点评: 东方精选(160406)的选股思路较为独特,一是对未股改一直持有较高的兴趣,目前S上石化仍是该基金的第一重仓股。二是对具有资产注入预期的品种也予以较高的热情,比如说首钢股份。三是对拥有金融股权投资的个股也积极跟踪,泸州老窖、哈投股份就是如此。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                就其重仓股来说,星湖科技产品呈味核苷酸和苏氨酸产能、质量均居国内第一,其优势在于规模大,工艺成熟。呈味核苷酸价格上涨,驱动公司利润高速增长。短期价格将维持高位,近期股价有活跃迹象,可跟踪。而恒生电子得益于我国金融行业的大发展,尤其是金融行业的自动化趋势极大地提振了公司的行业增长空间。与此同时,公司也积极向其他领域涉足,拓展新的利润增长点。中国神华的优势在于两点:一是产能拓展,二是产业链优势,从煤炭到电厂,未来公司还可能通过整体上市方式获得规模扩张及煤化工的业务。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         就其重仓股来说,新疆众和拥有完整的电子新材料产业链,主导产品电子铝箔制造的铝电解电容器广泛应用于汽车、通讯等传统行业和轨道交通等环保节能新领域,下游需求旺盛。目前该股高位震荡,有进一步拓展空间的可能性,可跟踪。而首钢股份则由于钢铁厂的搬迁意味着公司有产业转型或后续资产注入的可能性,目前股价相对较低,存在着进一步整合题材预期,可跟踪。泸州老窖拥有较强的产品定价能力,在高端白酒业务比例持续提升的背景下,业绩的成长性是相对突出的,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     策略:该基金认为需要将箱体震荡背景下的投资策略改变为趋势性上涨背景下的投资策略,首先把大类资产配置上始终维持90%以上的股票仓位;其次,重点配置与中国经济增长趋势密切相关的品种。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            策略:该基金认为当前证券市场虽然宽幅震荡,但相信有利因素将逐渐增多,市场走出突破形态将是大概率事件,并保持了较高仓位的权益类资产,在行业配置基本均衡的同时,精选个股进行重仓。