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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    四大路线图 掘金高送转股
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    基金重点青睐 金融大消费有戏
    威廉姆斯资金管理的第一条法则——控制损失
    开来资讯:研究显示一致预期大幅调高品种追踪
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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    2010年01月24日      来源:上海证券报      作者:
    申银万国         大众交通(600611)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 澳洋科技(002172)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             森洋投资

                公司是上海公交行业拥有经营线路最多的公司,也是出租车业龙头。上海世博将开,交运类公司受益此商机,估值提升前景看好。公司还持有国泰君安、申银万国等多家券商股权,未来股权投资有望升值。目前该股上升通道中运行,可介入。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     公司主营业务为粘胶短纤、棉浆粕的生产销售等。公司属于民营企业,优势在于靠近终端市场,企业机制灵活。本部和两个控股子公司产权明晰、激励到位,公司管理能力较强,管理费用率和财务费用率较同行业低很多。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                国栋建设(600321)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 隧道股份(600820)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                公司是西部最大的节能型人造板企业,共有三条板材生产线,总产能达到50万立方米每年,且公司自有林地12万亩,成本控制有利。公司每股净资产高达5.15元,每股资产公积金有3.39元,具备一定送转股的能力。当前走势趋强,可参与。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司两大核心优势业务是城市轨道交通隧道和越江公路隧道,在国内市场同行业中具有较强的竞争优势。因世博会的时程,公司2009年业务收入将保持较高增速,而且,由于公司具有很强的技术实力,世博后仍有较大的发展空间。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                中国宝安(000009)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 西藏天路(600326)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                公司以房地产、生物医药及新能源为三大主业,公司在锂电池正负极材料方向也处于国内领先地位,而且国内关于新能源汽车的扶助政策利好该股。走势上看,该股中期调整到位,目前反弹酝酿突破60日均线压制,可适量吸纳。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司在西藏自治区内业内一直处于领先地位,作为一家长期在高原施工作业的建筑公司,公司有着充分的青藏高原特殊地理条件施工经验,在国家4万亿基建投资的大背景下,区内具有明显的竞争优势,行业竞争力突出,公司将成为区内公路工程领域的最大受益者。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     策略:当前市场处于短期弱势盘整格局中,但总体保持箱体平衡。个股选择是跑赢的关键,建议关注催化剂明确的板块热点,如上海本地股、新能源,以及有送转预期的品种,操作上波段运作。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         策略:周四公布的宏观数据基本符合市场预期,特别是12月份CPI数据没有此前预测的那么差,显示通胀压力比想象中要好。后市不宜悲观,建议不必追涨杀跌,关注年报业绩好,有高送配预期个股。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

    证券通             一汽富维(600742)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                新希望(000876)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                天信投资

                作为一汽集团内部唯一的零部件业务发展平台,公司具有明显优势,随着公司产品结构优化、成本控制加强,将使得去年公司净利润同比增长50%至100%,而目前公司也在积极进行汽车电子业务等新业务拓展,未来发展值得期待。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        公司通过增资等手段不断加大对屠宰业务的投入,屠宰业务有望出现减亏。去年第二季度开始乳品行业从三聚氰胺事件中快速恢复,且随着城市化进程带来的消费升级以及通胀预期,乳制品价格将呈现上涨趋势,公司乳品业务有望成为公司最大的利润来源。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                北京银行(601169)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 开创国际(600097)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                公司2009年整体资产存款贷款规模增长较快,速度继续领先于行业水平,利润也出现小幅的增长。公司今年将会加快分行数量建设,提高管理水平,现阶段公司各项指标十分健康,资产扩张不受紧缩趋势的明显影响。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     公司重组后主营业务变为了远洋捕捞等,彻底改善了公司持续经营能力和盈利能力。消费结构升级拉动公司捕捞鱼类价格长期上涨,公司长期业绩增长强烈看好。二级市场上看,目前公司市盈率也较低,PE定位为两市农业股偏低,可关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                盾安环境(002011)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 特变电工(600089)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                公司传统配件业务稳定增长,向特种中央空调业务成功转型将会使今后公司特种中央空调业务年均增长达到35%,再加上未来的新能源和煤炭产业拓展将使公司如虎添翼,公司业绩将会保持高速增长,年复合增长率接近40%,成长性十分可观,上调公司至买入评级。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         新一轮农网改造重点领域为城农网建设、电网升级改造等110KV及以下领域,公司变压器受益于特高压明显。东南亚、中东等区域存在巨大需求,公司海外业务比重有望逐年上升。目前公司业绩趋势向好,盈利有望保持较高速度增长。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                     策略:当前流动性依然适度宽松,继续看好大盘。结合宏观经济、货币政策、估值等各个因素,我们继续维持之前看法,认为一季度大盘将继续上扬,创出新高,上证综指运行区间在3050至3650点之间                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 策略:小市值个股涨幅过大后估值已经偏高,需要以业绩增长来消化当前的高估值,也需要时间来消化。市场中线机会仍在于业绩成长性。个股方面,关注国家鼓励消费拉动内需上及低碳经济发展方向。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

    华宝先进         华泰股份(600308)、中国远洋(601919)、张江高科(600895)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         星湖科技(600866)、国药股份(600511)、杉杉股份(600884)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     招商成长

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                点评:华宝先进(162409)的选股思路是把握经济复苏的主线,积极寻找业绩改善突出的板块和个股,因此,该基金在近期重点配置了银行股、地产股、航运股等受益于经济增长的品种。与此同时,该基金对家电股、汽配股也予以了积极的关注,主要是因为此类个股的下游需求渐趋旺盛,业绩成长性相对清晰。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 点评:招商成长(161706)的选股思路是重点配置上游资源和下游金融、地产行业的公司,适当增持一些消费与服务行业的个股。循此思路,该基金重点跟踪了医药以及新能源上游产业的相关品种。与此同时,对产品价格上涨品种也积极挖掘,取得了较大的成果。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                就其重仓股来说,华泰股份成长性较佳,而且未来自主定价能力有所提升,赋予公司较高估值溢价估值水平,可跟踪。中国远洋的优势也较为突出,随着全球贸易的复苏以及我国经济的迅速增长,未来航运指数的涨升趋势将相对乐观,从而给公司带来业绩高成长动能。张江高科则在于独特盈利模式及所控股或参股企业的盈利能力迅速回升,在科技主题投资渐趋得到市场认同的背景下,估值水平有望随之提升。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         就其重仓股来说,星湖科技产品呈味核苷酸和苏氨酸产能、质量均居国内第一,其优势在于规模大,工艺成熟,另外,利巴韦林等产品价格的回升也有利于公司业绩提升,可密切跟踪。而国药股份的医药商业受益于医改扩容,预计未来复合增长率有望达到20%。在医药工业方面,由于具有麻药业务的专科优势,麻药业务复合增长有望达到19%,因此,目前估值合理,可跟踪。而杉杉股份的优势则在于服务、金融等业务提供一定的安全边际,而锂电池业务则带来广阔的成长空间,不妨密切关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                     策略:该基金认为近期投资的难度已经大幅度地上升,故认为要降低投资回报预期,同时加大挖掘个股机会,比如说一些估值洼地中寻找投资机会,银行股就是如此,此外,就是复苏趋势受益品种。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     策略:该基金认为支撑A股市场的基本面因素仍然较为强劲,企业盈利提升将成推升A 股市场上扬的主要动力。操作上重点配置金融、消费与服务行业公司,适当增持能明显受益于经济复苏个股。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

    万家精选         横店东磁(002056)、百利电气(600468)、柳化股份(600423)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         石油济柴(000617)、中天科技(600522)、老白干酒(600559)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     华夏复兴

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                点评:万家精选 (519185)的选股思路主要有两个:一是从市场趋势的角度,把握估值安全的准则,寻找优质品种,比如说估值偏低增长确定的银行、保险等品种。二是从产业、经济发展的趋势角度。就其重仓股来说,较为清晰,即以金融行业为核心,以地产为代表的资产类公司和以煤炭为代表的资源类公司为重点。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            点评: 华夏复兴(160312)的选股思路较为清晰,主要是跟踪两类品种:一是受益于经济增长的品种。比如说该基金积极增持了受益于内需复苏的地产、银行、钢铁、煤炭等行业的股票。二是积极跟踪业绩拐点出现的品种,比如说消费类品种中的二、三线白酒股以及那些基本面拥有新的业务增长点的个股。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                就其重仓股来说,横店东磁是铁氧体磁性材料的龙头,与市场同类产品相比具有明显成本优势。另外,公司向资源及新能源渗透,有提升公司估值水平能量。百利电气实际控制人天津机电控股集团是全国机械装备制造业重要基地之一。目前集团资产注入上市公司是趋势,公司将面临价值重估。柳化股份上游一体化初具雏形,未来煤炭可完全自给。公司主要产品2010年均价有望显著增长,从而推动业绩向上,故目前估值低,可积极跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 就其重仓股来说,公司气体机业务有望成为新利润增长点,因为随着中石油加大煤层气开采领域的投资力度,将对公司气体机业务有力支撑,初步预计,公司气体机及发电机组业务有望实现6-7亿元的收入,可跟踪。中天科技则在电力特种导线上竞争优势明显,将直接受益于该产品未来在电网建设领域的普及,且公司将受益于智能电网的建设,目前估值优势明显。老白干酒的优势在于产品质量得到华北一带消费者认可,未来有望获得更多认同。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                     策略:该基金认为在宏观经济继续朝着复苏方向的背景下,市场呈现震荡攀升的格局可能性居大。操作上深度挖掘个股,将行业轮动操作和个股波段操作有机结合起来,最大限度获取绝对回报。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         策略:该基金认为当前证券市场虽然弱势震荡,但相信有利因素将逐渐增多,市场走出突破形态将是大概率事件。策略上把市场一致预期的经济复苏概念作为资产配置主线,如科技股、新能源等。