• 1:大智慧封面
  • 2:大智慧股文观止
  • 3:大智慧消息树
  • 4:大智慧机构股票池
  • 5:大智慧大鳄猎物
  • 6:个股点评
  • 7:个股点评
  • 8:大智慧基金
  •  
      2010 1 31
    前一天  后一天  
    按日期查找
    4版:大智慧机构股票池
    上一版  下一版  
    pdf
     
     
     
      | 4版:大智慧机构股票池
    机构股票池·中线成长股
    超跌地产股 基金调仓催生新机遇
    春耕时节 优先播种农机股
    低碳经济或成新兴奋点 首推锂电池
    中大期货逐鹿金融市场 双核引擎备战股指期货
    开来资讯:研究显示一致预期大幅调高品种追踪
    更多新闻请登陆中国证券网〉〉〉
     
     
    上海证券报网络版郑重声明
       经上海证券报社授权,中国证券网独家全权代理《上海证券报》信息登载业务。本页内容未经书面授权许可,不得转载、复制或在非中国证券网所属服务器建立镜像。欲咨询授权事宜请与中国证券网联系 (400-820-0277) 。

     
    标题: 作者: 正文: 起始时间: 截止时间:
      本版导航 | 版面导航 | 标题导航 收藏 | 打印 | 推荐  
    机构股票池·中线成长股
    2010年01月31日      来源:上海证券报      作者:
    申银万国         云南白药(000538)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 广船国际(600685)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 九鼎德盛

                公司白药系列产品进入基本药物目录,白药膏和白药气雾剂2010至2012年销量有望大幅增长。白药膏涨价效应将体现在2010年。2010上半年公司生产将整体搬迁至呈贡基地,增长的产能瓶颈扫除。目前该股中期慢牛,可在均线附近介入。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     公司主营造船业务、钢结构工程及机电产品等,其大股东中国船舶工业集团公司是中央直接管理的特大型企业集团,在军船方面,CSSC研制产品几乎涵盖了我国海军所有主战舰艇和军辅船装备。近期该股连续下跌破位年线,有反弹要求,建议逢低关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                国栋建设(600321)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 深圳能源(000027)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                公司是西部最大的节能型人造板企业,共有三条板材生产线,总产能达到50万立方米每年,且公司自有林地12万亩,成本控制有利。公司每股净资产高达5.15元,每股资产公积金有3.39元。若股价在20至30日均线一带出现调整,可参与。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     公司垄断了深圳本地能源发电市场,将在持续致力于提高管理及生产效率的基础上重点实施规模扩张战略,突出战略布点,公司LNG天然气发电项目具备正宗清洁能源题材,受到国家政策的大力扶持。该股阶段性调整相对充分,可逢低关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                小商品城(600415)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 远兴能源(000683)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                公司预计2009年净利润增长超过50%以上,市场扩张和地产项目为业绩注入持续发展动力,未来股价表现的催化剂来自义乌国际贸易试验区的成功获批带来商铺价值的大幅提升,以及租金上涨空间的实质性放大。目前该股在45元附近整理蓄势,可参与。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     尽管公司收益大部分来自于转让锡林郭勒苏尼特碱业有限公司股权,但这对于公司未来发展战略及经营将大有改善,从该股运行看,明显有大资金运作,而经过阶段性调整,有可能出现一定的波动性机会,建议逢低适量关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     策略:3000点附近多空将会有反复争夺,但立足估值基本面,不少成长性品种价值已体现。可淡化短期趋势涨跌,从行业龙头、垄断地位等视角出发,选择中长期稳健品种择机参与,并且耐心持有。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     策略:由于本周为下破3000点的长阴线,而时间周期上面临春节假期临近,预计下周A股市场有可能继续下探,但个股机会仍在。操作上不妨寻找连续调整且破位年线的超跌绩优品种进行逢低关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

    证券通            用友软件(600588)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 北新建材(000786)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 天信投资

                鉴于中小企业IT投资恢复增长迹象明显、行业回暖趋势基本确立,去年公司实现净利润同比增长50%至100%,而公司2010年业绩具有较大弹性。从趋势上判断,公司股价仍有上升空间,预计公司2009至2011年业绩分别为0.55、0.77和1.01元,年均增长超过35%。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     公司产品具有节能、利废、环保等特点,符合国家产业扶持的大方向。公司斥巨资投资多条石膏生产线,新生产线陆续投产将使得原材料采购距离缩短,采购成本降低。预期公司业绩随着公司扩张将出现较大幅度增长。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                国电南瑞(600406)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 国投中鲁(600962)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                公司是轨道交通自动化监控方面的领先企业,有望从国内轨道交通跨越式发展中获取更大的好处,公司通过加强预算管理,有效提升了公司的估值水平,公司募集资金加强智能电网的产业建设,提升公司行业竞争力,并为公司今后的持续发展奠定良好的基础。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        公司是国内果汁行业龙头,是目前国内该行业生产规模最大的浓缩苹果汁加工生产企业之一。出口苹果汁价格见底开始大幅反弹,公司认为还有上涨空间。公司未来将继续以兼并收购方式实现产能及规模扩张,将逐步提高公司的行业地位与议价能力。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                华帝股份(002035)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 中信国安(000839)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                公司具有较强的品牌优势、技术优势和营销网络优势,为持续发展打下良好的基础,而全社会消费趋于活跃,厨卫家电行业也迅速复苏,公司经营状况大幅向好,现在已经形成经营拐点,维持增持评级。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         公司主营有线电视运营与增值电信服务、钾肥与碳酸锂等盐湖资源综合开发、锂电池材料等业务,是国内广电系统之外的最大的有线网络运营商,拥有青海西台吉乃尔盐湖的开发权,是国内第三大钾肥生产企业。此外,公司有线电视业务将稳步增长。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                     策略:当前市场运行中枢为3520点,波动范围在2800至4000点之间,现阶段在中枢下方运行的概率较大。虽然春节前后历来行情较好,但上升空间受到压制,整体上不会改变震荡态势,属于跌出来的行情。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 策略:大盘大跌后,一些二线蓝筹具有中线价值。从政策角度看,重点投资方向依旧围绕消费、建材下乡及三网融合。在继家电、汽车下乡后,建材下乡有望刺激对建筑材料的需求,相关个股长远受益。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

    鹏华价值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    华富成长

                     宝新能源(000690)、贵州茅台(600519)、大秦铁路(601006)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         传化股份(002010)、华东医药(000963)、辽宁成大(600739)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                点评:鹏华价值(160607)的选股思路是强调运用相对估值分析方法,发掘我国资本市场国际接轨趋势下具备相对价值优势的中国企业。因此,积极跟踪拥有独立自主定价权的高端白酒、受益于我国重工业化发展的铁路运输等品种。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         点评:华富成长(164103)的选股思路是遵循着通胀预期与企业盈利改善两条主线进行板块配置,重点跟踪金融股等受益于通胀显性下的加息预期以及受消费产业升级积极影响的高端白酒等消费类品种。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                就重仓股来说,宝新能源利润增长点相对突出,其中,甲湖湾陆上风电一期有望在2009年年底投产;甲湖湾陆上风电二期有望在2010年投产;荷树园三期预计2011年初投产,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     就其重仓股来说,传化股份的印染行业景气可持续。公司下游印染布从09年3月起整个产量同比去年有了显著回升,近期更是创了新高。在印染行业带动下,染料行业产量增速连创新高,09年累计产量142万吨,累计增长14%,成长性相对突出。而华东医药的主导产品销售势头迅猛,比如说卡博平卡博平价格优势突出,每年大约可以争取40%的新增市场。而辽宁成大的优势不仅仅在于公司持有的广发证券股权,可以分享中国证券市场的发展,而且还拥有生物制药、油页岩的开采等业务,发展势头比较不错,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                     而贵州茅台的优势在于三点:一是需求旺盛,不仅仅是高端白酒消费能力的提升,而且还在于公司独特口味获得了顾客的忠诚度。二是产能的拓展。三是不可复制的产品优势所带来的独立的自主定价能力。而大秦铁路则在于公司的运输能力近期持续复苏,而且有望成为大股东整合旗下铁路运输资产的平台,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                     策略:该基金认为尽管整体市场的估值水平并不算高,但一些小盘股的估值水平明显偏高,存在明显结构性泡沫。因此,对周期性股票及受政策影响较大的地产股予以减持,增持了一些防御性品种。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     策略:该基金预期2010年信贷逐渐收紧,同时鼓励经济结构向消费驱动和新兴产业转型,因此,该基金未来策略上以精选个股为主,市场存在结构性机会,并加大对品牌消费和科技创新的投资力度。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

    工银平衡                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    上投内需

                     贵研铂业(600459)、东安动力(600178)、龙元建设(600491)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            合加资源(000826)、北新建材(000786)、浙江医药(600216)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                点评:工银平衡 (164803)的选股思路是紧扣经济发展步伐,从中选择能够引领产业发展方向的板块以及该板块内的优质企业。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     点评: 上投内需(163705)的选股思路较为清晰,主要是跟踪两类个股,一是关注内需驱动型公司的增长机会,特别是终端消费类行业,如商业和家电等传统行业或公司;二是国家未来的战略性产业将是我们关注的另一个重点,如节能环保产业、新能源领域等。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                就其重仓股来说,贵研铂业是由世界知名的三大贵金属研究所之一的昆明贵金属研究所改制而来,目前以贵金属产业为核心业务,已成为全球贵金属行业排名第五位的领先企业,未来业绩成长性突出,可跟踪。作为国内乘用车市场最大的独立发动机企业,东安动力已形成年产微车发动机40万台、变速箱50万台的能力,主要配套中航工业内部的哈飞汽车、昌河汽车两家整车厂,有望受益于我国汽车增长以及中航汽车集团的整合,前景乐观。龙元建设的优势则在于地产与建筑的双轮驱动,受益于房屋建筑行业景气程度的快速上升,公司房建业务新签合同金额有望超预期增长,发展势头不错,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                         就其重仓股来说,合加资源的优势较为明显,主要是因为公司污水处理业务持续拓展,有望给公司带来稳定的现金流以及相对确定的业绩增长。而北新建材的产品主要应用工业废弃材料生产石膏板,成本低,节能降耗效果显著,而且公司已成为行业龙头企业,规模效应显现,目前估值较低,可跟踪。而浙江医药的主导产品在2010年,高景气仍可持续,目前公司制剂占比超过20%,且出现逐年上升态势,预计未来将成为公司后续成长的主要催化剂,目前估值低,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     策略:目前市场处于一定程度的均衡状态,该基金预计今年一季度市场总体保持平衡格局,结构性的市场机会较大将继续密切关注经济数据、资金供求和政策调整状况,平衡风险与回报,稳健投资。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     策略:该基金认为中国经济总需求的持续扩张直接拉动了PPI和CPI的上涨,故该基金对股票组合结构作了一定的调整,增持了部分制造业和消费品等行业,并关注竞争力和盈利能力持续提升的公司。