在目前市场流行题材轮动的态势下，葛洲坝可谓是个“百搭”：清洁能源（水电）、区域经济（新疆业务）、房地产、建材（水泥）、矿产资源（新疆的煤矿与有色资产）、外围复苏（境外订单）、含权（高送配）。因此，无论大盘起落，该股长期以来一直保持着坚韧的抗跌性，且时有逆势涨升。当然，这一切最根本的原因是建立在业绩稳步增长的基础上，该公司未来三年的复合增长率在20%以上。从而使该股既具备了投资价值防御性，又具有了题材股活力的双重属性，长期以来一直被机构投资者列为“必配”的投资标的。

评级机构                                                                                     评级日期     股票评级    投资要点                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 EPS预测（元）                     估值

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     (元)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    09年             10年     11年        

东方证券                                                                                     2010/02/04    买入        2010年公司的主营业务建筑施工和水泥业务仍然将快速增长，业绩稳步提升有充分保障。公司在房地产领域主要进行一级开发，先后在宜昌、武汉、上海等地成功开发一大批房地产项目。拥有一千亩房地产土地储备，200万平米的建筑面积。公司的房地产业务预计要到2011 年开始大规模销售，目前暂没有利润贡献。公司的BOT 项目大广高速公路2009 年4 月份建成通车，将有两年试运营期，暂不会提供利润贡献，由于大广公路建造成本仅3210 万元/公里，预计正常运营后未来利润可观。此外公司还持有韶能股份等公司的大量金融股权。公司在新疆设有三个控股子公司，分别从事煤炭金属等矿业资源开发、水利水电施工和水电开发业务，预计公司在新疆的上述业务上将有大的发展，可能成为公司的股价催化剂。    0.56             0.73     0.88     18.00

广发证券                                                                                     2010/01/06    买入        公司2009年归属母公司净利润同比增长60%左右，预计公司 2010年将实现净利润19.31亿元，同比增长约48.5%，考虑配股和行权对股本的扩充后的EPS 为0.83 元，工程施工、水泥和民爆业务合计贡献了全部净利润的90%。公司在已有主业仍将维持快速增长的同时，又具备高送配、潜在矿产资源释放和新疆概念等估值提升因素，相信随着预期的不断兑现，公司股价面临较好的上涨空间。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.61             0.83     1.11     18.00

第一创业                                                                                     2010/01/04    强烈推荐    海外工程承包市场拓展超预期，国内市场受益于基建投资，09年新签订单国内和国外分别占36%和64%，水电工程项目作为公司优势所在，占比达46%，而基建、市政改造工程占比为54%。考虑到09年较高基数，预计2010年公司国内订单增速将放缓至25%，但由于海外经济复苏，预计新签订单有望保持30%以上的高增速。预计2010年工程业务同比增速将保持在30%以上，09年公司水泥业务营收增速有望达到80%以上，2010年增速亦有望超过40%。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0.60             0.78     --     --

业绩预测与估值的均值（元）                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         0.59             0.78     0.995    18.00

目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         22.54            17.05    13.37        

风 险 提 示                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

（1）多元化运营模式下的资源分配与管理风险；（2）房地产业务市场风险；（3）海外业务运营风险。