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    机构股票池·中线成长股
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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    2010年02月07日      来源:上海证券报      作者:
    申银万国         云南白药(000538)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     昆百大(000560)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 九鼎德盛

                公司白药系列产品进入基本药物目录,白药膏和白药气雾剂2010-2012年销量有望大幅增长。白药膏涨价效应将体现在2010年,2010上半年公司生产将整体搬迁至呈贡基地,增长的产能瓶颈扫除。目前走势中期慢牛,可在60日线附近介入。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     公司在昆明及云南省有着举足轻重的位置。目前公司形成了商业百货、旅游与物业经营的主要运作模式,随着国家促进消费及经营旺季的到来,公司面临着较好发展环境,近期该股在连续调整中大单频现,显示有机构资金关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                小商品城(600415)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     宝胜股份(600973)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                公司预计09年净利润增长超过50%以上,市场扩张和地产项目为业绩注入持续发展动力,未来股价表现的催化剂来自义乌国际贸易试验区的成功获批带来商铺价值的大幅提升,以及租金上涨空间的实质性放大。目前横盘抗跌,可介入。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         公司是集科研、设计、制造、销售于一体的大型电线电缆专业生产企业,是我国电线电缆行业发展最快的企业之一,市场占有率居前列,行业竞争力突出。目前公司预计2009年度净利润同比增长2000%以上,而近期股价连续调整,技术指标显示超跌,建议逢低关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                国栋建设(600321)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     晶源电子(002049)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                该公司是西部最大的节能型人造板企业,共有三条板材生产线,总产能达到50万立方米每年,且公司自有林地12万亩,成本控制有利。公司每股净资产高达5.15元,每股资产公积金有3.39元。技术上看,当前该股中期走势走牛,可参与。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     公司是我国压电石英晶体元器件行业的龙头企业,具有年产近4亿件,15个品种系列的各类石英晶体元器件的生产能力,且全面掌握了SMD片式新型元器件核心技术,产品技术水平为国内领先,近期调整中承接盘较明显,建议逢低积极关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     策略:上证综指跌破3000点后会有反复,政策利空预期和外围股市走弱因素交织,但上市公司基本面好转势头不变,建议立足上市公司基本面,选择当前有抗跌表现的品种,不惧短调中线耐心持有。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         策略:下周是春节前最后一个交易周,预计A股市场成交量将难理想,投资者可多加关注小盘类活跃类潜力品种,此外,可关注基本面的变化,特别是国际金融市场的债权危机演变情况,随机而动。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

    森洋投资         星湖科技(600866)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     柳工(000528)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 天信投资

                公司是全国最大的医药原料生产基地之一。公司投资建设的年产3万吨赖氨酸项目,是华南地区规模最大的赖氨酸生产基地,该项目将可实现年销售收入4至5亿元,随着广新集团正式入主星湖科技,将提升公司发展潜力。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     公司为国内最大的土方机械生产商,当前装载机依然为公司最主要的收入来源。由于国家刺激经济计划带来社会基建投资的回暖工程机械行业稳健增长值得期待。随着公司挖掘机和起重机产品线扩张与产能释放,业绩保持高速增长值得期待。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                金路集团(000510)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     华侨城(000069)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                公司作为我国PVC树脂行业最重要的生产企业之一,其生产规模在国内同行业中具有一定的优势。公司利用所在的四川地区丰富的水电和电石资源,采用电石法生产PVC,成本优势突出。公司计划进一步拓展公司PVC深加工项目和地产业,有效提升公司发展空间。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司在国内率先探索出旅游地产的全新发展模式,成为深圳和全国城市规划建设及房地产业成功的典范。随着集团整体上市的完成,公司解决了困饶已久的同业竞争问题,并使土地储备规模大幅上升。公司当前市盈率偏高,但预期业绩释放后的市盈率并不高,当前估值相对合理。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                中科三环(000970)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     中青旅(600138)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                公司主要从事稀土永磁和新型磁性材料及其应用产品的研究,开发和向生产转化的高新技术企业。目前公司正在积极推进钕铁硼磁体在风力电机和混合动力汽车的应用,预计随着风力发电机组和混合动力汽车的普及,公司收入可望进入快速增长期。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2010年世博会举办对于公司经营产生重大影响,乌镇作为最具江南水乡特点的古镇旅游景点之一,将成为来沪参观游客和上海本地居民短途旅行重要的扩散路径之一。当前公司市盈率在旅游股中比较低,估值优势明显。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     策略:目前受经济政策的退出预期的打压和市场对资金面的担忧,大盘后市弱势调整格局可能仍将延续,或许会在3000点左右持续震荡整理。短期应以谨慎为主,操作上可逢低择机关注超跌的优质个股。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     策略:担心经济二次探底及货币政策收紧导致市场大跌,弱市中对于一些具有中长线的价值个股是低吸的时候,可以采取分批低吸,而世博相关旅游股如中青旅、华侨城及豫园商城等值得关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

    银华优质         八一钢铁(600581)、三安光电(600703)、徐工机械(000425)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             中国宝安(000009)、豫园商城(600655)、海油工程(600583)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     海富精选

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                点评:银华优质(161806)的选股思路是积极跟踪汽车、零售、TMT等经济结构转型的受益行业;同时,加大配置受益于固定资产投资的中游制造业,比如机械、钢铁,适度配置有政策支持的新经济相关行业和有业绩支撑的资源类股票,以充分分享我国经济的高速成长。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            点评:海富精选 (162301)的选股思路是重点关注得益于产能利用率提高而存在涨价预期的中游以及存在相对供给瓶颈的部分上游行业。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                就重仓股来说,八一钢铁产品结构合理,疆内市场占有率高,而且公司作为新疆最大的钢企,区域优势明显,成长前景乐观。三安光电的优势则在于公司主导产品的LED业务将在城市亮化美化工程和大力发展汽车工业等背景下,市场空间巨大;而且,伴随着天津三安的组建和陆续投产,2010年公司一期扩产后将完成年产LED外延片150万片,行业前景乐观。而徐工机械的主导产品的汽车起重机业务受高铁等基建项目拉动,同比增幅超过20%,与此同时,公司与兵器集团的整合也将带来乐观前景预期,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     就其重仓股来说,中国宝安的锂电池正负极材料处于国内领先地位,其中贝特瑞目前主打产品是碳负极材料和磷酸铁锂正极材料;天骄公司目前主打产品是三元正极材料。与此同时,公司的创投业务前景不错,初始投资金额2个多亿,目前已上市的鼎汉技术,已发行待上市的鼎龙股份已显示出公司的创投品质。豫园商城受益世博会,商业餐饮业务增长有保障。2010年的业绩增速将很可能超过100%,黄金饰品业务,尤其是黄金纪念品销售增速将大大超过2009年。此外,公司还持有德邦证券股权和招金矿业股权,重估动能强。而海油工程则由于油价回升,全球石油勘探业务容量回升,业绩成长性有所显现,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     策略:该基金认为经过2009年一年的持续上涨,目前股票估值已经处于合理偏高水平。故该基金在下一阶段中,将适度降低股票仓位,同时,更多依靠自下而上精选个股的策略,加强结构性调整。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         策略:该基金认为刺激政策退出抑或转向的忧虑日渐增加,因此出口复苏程度和通货膨胀水平将成为关注的重要变量。故在资产配置上基本保持不变,加大了消费行业如医药、家电等的配置。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

    富国天益         法拉电子(600563)、思源电气(002028)、贵州茅台(600519)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             南天信息(000948)、荣信股份(002123)、金证股份(600446)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     鹏华创新

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                点评:富国天益(161003)的选股思路是以中国经济结构转型和产业升级两大趋势为主要线索,重点关注消费服务类行业。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             点评:鹏华创新(160613)的选股思路较为清晰,主要关注两类:一是科技类、创新类、低碳类等对经济转型和结构调整有支持并对未来经济发展产生重大意义的行业是该基金选择成长股的的重点;二是部分消费子行业,特别是新型消费领域值得关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                就其重仓股来说,法拉电子2010年公司股价的催化剂将来自于其新能源战略逐步落到实处带来的业绩增厚。因为薄膜电容在新能源领域的广泛应用,这是构筑公司新能源战略的基础,而正是这种模式的转变给公司带来了全新的成长空间与投资机会。近期股价企稳,短线有望进一步反弹,可跟踪。思源电气开发的SVG系列产品,采用世界上最先进的H桥串联的链式主电路和全数字处理控制器,具有完全自主的知识产权,可以提高供电系统功率因数,降低输配电系统损耗,符合智能电网投资方向,前景不错。贵州茅台的优势则在于产能的拓展前景乐观,而且公司还有典型的产品定价能力,因此,未来成长支点在于量、价齐升,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                     就其重仓股来说,南天信息的核心竞争力在于客户关系。以硬件产品切入银行市场,在建立良好客户关系基础上不断引入新的产品线,目前股价已切入去年底基金加仓的成本区域,生产自救的冲动较为强烈,可跟踪。随着500kv、750kv及特高压线路的激增,如何有效提高远距离输电能力变得日趋重要,而采用串补技术可使系统稳定极限大幅度提高,这恰恰是公司的强项,因此,成长空间乐观。金证股份在做大做强金融证券软件的前提下,涉足医疗卫生、医疗保险行业IT市场,未来的业务成长空间已充分拓展,可积极跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     策略:该基金认为政府宏观经济刺激政策将逐步退出,但这不会改变市场趋势。市场风格可能由此逐步切换,从自上而下逐步向自下而上转移。故该基金基金保持精选个股,长期持有的投资风格。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         策略:该基金认为伴随着经济的结构调整以及扩大内需的不断推进,市场将在部分板块上出现结构性机会。故该基金将保持金融、资源、先进制造业等行业的持续跟踪和关注,降低组合的波动性。