• 1:头版
  • 2:要闻
  • 3:焦点
  • 4:产经新闻
  • 5:财经海外
  • 6:特别报道
  • 8:观点专栏
  • 9:公 司
  • 10:公司前沿
  • 11:公司·融资
  • 12:人物
  • A1:市 场
  • A2:市场新闻
  • A3:机构·资金
  • A4:市场趋势
  • A5:市场评弹
  • A6:数据说话
  • A7:信息披露
  • A8:一周策略
  • B1:披 露
  • B4:产权信息
  • B5:信息披露
  • B6:信息披露
  • B7:信息披露
  • B8:信息披露
  • B9:信息披露
  • B10:信息披露
  • B11:信息披露
  • B12:信息披露
  • B13:信息披露
  • B14:信息披露
  • B15:信息披露
  • B16:信息披露
  • B17:信息披露
  • B18:信息披露
  • B19:信息披露
  • B20:信息披露
  • B21:信息披露
  • B22:信息披露
  • B23:信息披露
  • B24:信息披露
  • B25:信息披露
  • B26:信息披露
  • B27:信息披露
  • B28:信息披露
  •  
      2010 2 23
    前一天  后一天  
    按日期查找
    A6版:数据说话
    上一版  下一版  
    pdf
     
     
     
      | A6版:数据说话
    新股定位
    机构热衷淘金次新股
    26.9%!今年春节旅游收入创九年来最高增速
    部分连续上涨或连续下跌个股一览
    部分成交量突增个股一览
    富赢领航值居前个股一览
    部分主动增仓个股一览
    融资融券不改标的股估值核心
    部分远离当日成本个股一览
    富赢资金雷达值居前个股一览
    更多新闻请登陆中国证券网〉〉〉
     
     
    上海证券报网络版郑重声明
       经上海证券报社授权,中国证券网独家全权代理《上海证券报》信息登载业务。本页内容未经书面授权许可,不得转载、复制或在非中国证券网所属服务器建立镜像。欲咨询授权事宜请与中国证券网联系 (400-820-0277) 。

     
    标题: 作者: 正文: 起始时间: 截止时间:
      本版导航 | 版面导航 | 标题导航 收藏 | 打印 | 推荐  
    融资融券不改标的股估值核心
    2010年02月23日      来源:上海证券报      作者:⊙周丽华 ○编辑 姚炯
      ⊙周丽华 ○编辑 姚炯

      

      随着融资融券相关制度的渐趋完善,也就意味着融资融券这一金融创新措施的推出日期越来越近,这可能也是昨日广发证券等券商股一度活跃的诱因。正因为如此,有观点认为融资融券标的股活跃度有望提升。

      对此,笔者认为不宜过分夸大金融创新对个股活跃度的推动力。一是因为在融资融券推出之初,相关券商会持相对谨慎态度,对客户的交易行为会有一个观察期,而且客户本身也需要一个熟悉阶段。也就是说,融资融券推出后市场会有一个观望周期,从而对融资融券标的股的推动力相对有限;二是因为融资融券作为金融创新措施,对个股股价的影响力主要体现在二级市场,并不影响相关上市公司的经营。而众所周知的是,对上市公司二级市场股价,尤其是对于蓝筹股的股价来说,真正的推动力不是来源于二级市场的交易者行为,而是来源于上市公司业绩改善的驱动力。因此,融资融券并不会改变融资融券标的股的估值核心。

      当然,从海外市场经验来看,融资融券可能会对相关个股股价短线走势产生一定程度的影响力,因为融资融券会影响相关机构的短线仓位配置心态。比如说获得融资融券资格的券商为了未来的融券业务,可能会在一定时间内加大相关融资融券标的股的加仓力度,以提升“库存”,如此就会对相关个股的短线走势形成一定的买盘推动力。

      与此同时,当前机构的操作思路也渐有向主题投资转移趋势,即机构资金开始追捧所谓的题材股。而融资融券推出后机构或将把注意力转移到相关蓝筹股上来,如此就会使得部分标的股走势趋于活跃。

      综上所述,融资融券可以激活标的股二级市场股性,扩展股价波幅空间,但并不会改变此类个股的运行方向,因为改变个股股价运行方向的力量来源于上市公司的业绩成长趋势而不是金融创新措施。循此思路,建议投资者密切关注那些基本面积极向上的个股,因为金融创新的题材催化与上市公司业绩基本面的积极变化如果形成一定的共振效应,就将推动二级市场股价活跃。就目前的融资融券标的股来看,可密切关注两类品种:一是资源、能源类股,此类个股将受益于我国经济增长,业绩稳定成长趋势较为乐观,比如说长江电力、冀中能源、神火股份等。二是近年来经营处于景气旺盛周期股,中国南车、上海电气、华兰生物等就是如此。

    融资融券试点初期标的股一览(制表:上海聚源数据)                                                                                    

    股票         股票         总股本             流通                    总市值(亿元)    机构持股占流通股比(%)    2009年             股票         股票         总股本(亿股)    流通                    总市值(亿元)    机构持股占流通股比(%)    2009年             股票         股票         总股本(亿股)    流通                    总市值(亿元)    机构持股占流通股比(%)    2009年

    简称         代码         (亿股)            股本                                                                 振幅(%)            简称         代码                            股本                                                                 振幅(%)            简称         代码                            股本                                                                 振幅(%)

                                                    (亿股)                                                                                                                                (亿股)                                                                                                                                (亿股)                                                                

    000001        深发展A     31.05             29.24                 697.17            33.75                     188.68             000932        华菱钢铁     27.38             11.21                 175.21            10.39                     124.07             002024        苏宁电器     46.64             31.43                 871.73            22.81                     44.89

    000002        万科A        109.95             96.56                 1030.25         17.26                     131.16             000933        神火股份     7.50             7.50                    222.38            23.74                     196.94             601988        中国银行     2538.39         1778.19                 10483.56         96.61                     68.68

    000024        招商地产     17.17             6.46                    391.72            12.49                     200.83             000937        冀中能源     11.56             7.88                    416.55            9.78                     245.00             600048        保利地产     35.20             31.88                 685.29            17.98                     113.75

    000027        深圳能源     22.02             5.99                    278.62            3.16                     80.19                000960        锡业股份     8.02             4.01                    180.71            8.74                     304.55             601006        大秦铁路     129.77            129.77                 1235.39         8.77                     64.33

    000039        中集集团     26.62             12.31                 370.07            1.63                     130.00             000983        西山煤电     24.24             11.32                 826.10            11.43                     275.30             601111        中国国航     122.51            78.46                 1323.15         2.60                     156.34

    000060        中金岭南     10.24             10.23                 241.61            10.38                     312.30             600000        浦发银行     88.30             79.26                 1749.23         33.19                     134.41             601398        工商银行     3340.19         2509.62                 16400.33         48.67                     64.68

    000063        中兴通讯     18.90             14.67                 803.09            25.76                     72.79                600005        武钢股份     78.38             31.35                 540.05            6.01                     159.20             600018        上港集团     209.91            209.91                 1150.30         2.33                     120.24

    000069        华侨城A     31.07             13.37                 474.20            17.17                     211.61             600015        华夏银行     49.91             37.84                 540.97            6.87                     81.84                601628        中国人寿     282.65            208.24                 7939.56         1.62                     80.58

    000157        中联重科     19.71             8.22                    460.24            21.83                     159.92             600016        民生银行     222.62            188.23                 1620.69         39.15                     115.47             601166        兴业银行     50.00             50.00                 1704.00         42.99                     195.82

    000402        金融街        24.81             24.81                 264.50            12.86                     113.40             600019        宝钢股份     175.12            175.12                 1404.46         3.24                     120.25             601318        中国平安     73.45             39.27                 3678.40         41.17                     134.97

    000527        美的电器     20.80             20.78                 415.00            21.60                     187.92             600028        中国石化     867.02            699.22                 9754.02         2.09                     122.50             000338        潍柴动力     8.33             2.81                    529.73            13.33                     268.40

    000538        云南白药     5.34                4.84                    304.78            13.77                     83.75                600029        南方航空     80.04             15.00                 505.03            4.85                     131.03             601328        交通银行     489.94            159.55                 4051.84         10.15                     130.80

    000562        宏源证券     14.61             14.61                 313.87            70.67                     132.05             600030        中信证券     66.30             65.70                 1811.44         22.83                     112.91             601600        中国铝业     135.24            39.31                 1720.31         24.50                     231.05

    000568        泸州老窖     13.94             7.15                    485.47            24.52                     127.74             600036        招商银行     191.19            156.59                 3017.06         27.26                     96.21                601919        中国远洋     102.16            21.63                 1309.73         4.76                     167.86

    000623        吉林敖东     5.73                5.07                    290.46            20.43                     215.04             600050        中国联通     211.97            211.97                 1403.21         5.70                     69.18                601168        西部矿业     23.83             17.11                 308.60            7.34                     219.71

    000630        铜陵有色     12.94             5.58                    243.73            3.24                     273.23             600089        特变电工     17.97             17.97                 388.59            15.61                     64.02                002142        宁波银行     25.00             10.54                 381.25            11.81                     163.97

    000651        格力电器     18.79             18.51                 456.12            32.65                     79.73                600104        上海汽车     65.55             65.55                 1390.31         6.23                     406.71             601169        北京银行     62.28             39.55                 989.56            49.87                     119.64

    000652        泰达股份     14.76             14.59                 117.46            3.75                     78.79                600320        振华重工     43.90             25.48                 396.00            2.52                     74.41                601939        建设银行     2336.89         90.00                 13296.91         23.42                     78.06

    000709        河北钢铁     68.77             37.54                 397.48            8.06                     208.94             600362        江西铜业     30.23             3.53                    1085.20         2.29                     389.57             601088        中国神华     198.90            18.00                 5853.52         2.93                     138.82

    000729        燕京啤酒     12.10             5.04                    246.65            15.51                     57.07                600383        金地集团     24.84             21.82                 306.55            23.20                     191.39             601857        中国石油     1830.21         40.00                 23811.03         0.41                     62.43

    000768        西飞国际     24.78             15.25                 333.49            3.58                     130.10             600489        中金黄金     7.91             3.76                    406.37            4.82                     166.35             601390        中国中铁     213.00            46.75                 1222.61         4.13                     42.25

    000783        长江证券     21.71             11.07                 384.31            14.78                     208.77             600519        贵州茅台     9.44             9.44                    1633.62         18.01                     75.49                002202        金风科技     14.00             6.15                    423.92            6.51                     82.89

    000792        盐湖钾肥     7.68                3.91                    421.62            11.80                     47.86                600547        山东黄金     7.12             3.46                    498.86            7.13                     117.38             601601        中国太保     86.00             25.77                 2137.96         4.72                     159.71

    000800        一汽轿车     16.28             14.12                 340.80            18.05                     283.70             600550        天威保变     11.68             5.72                    327.16            12.24                     113.68             601899        紫金矿业     145.41            63.25                 1250.55         1.79                     151.66

    000825        太钢不锈     56.96             22.89                 443.17            5.04                     253.73             600598        北大荒        17.14             17.14                 231.28            4.79                     52.00                601898        中煤能源     132.59            15.18                 1569.83         1.55                     155.02

    000839        中信国安     15.68             15.67                 225.47            2.21                     224.16             600739        辽宁成大     9.02             9.02                    314.66            21.20                     247.36             601958        金钼股份     32.27             6.46                    567.56            3.18                     163.55

    000858        五粮液        37.96             37.96                 1120.57         60.69                     144.30             600795        国电电力     54.48             54.48                 371.54            8.60                     55.83                601186        中国铁建     123.38            24.50                 1062.26         3.00                     26.79

    000878        云南铜业     12.57             10.08                 328.00            5.37                     377.37             600837        海通证券     82.28             40.02                 1430.82         11.18                     139.45             601668        中国建筑     300.00            120.00                 1284.00         3.40                     33.13

    000895        双汇发展     6.06                2.94                    339.30            26.29                     67.54                600900        长江电力     110.00            49.09                 1401.40         5.46                     26.48                601766        中国南车     118.40            30.00                 651.20            3.58                     40.60

    000898        鞍钢股份     72.35             18.08                 882.65            3.37                     174.67             002007        华兰生物     3.60             3.60                    205.27            15.03                     115.97             601727        上海电气     125.08            21.26                 1124.44         0.52                     120.58