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    机构股票池·中线成长股
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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    2010年02月28日      来源:上海证券报      作者:
    申银万国         小商品城(600415)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             紫金矿业(601899)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     九鼎德盛

                公司预计09年净利润增长超过50%以上,市场扩张和地产项目为业绩注入持续发展动力,未来股价表现的催化剂来自义乌国际贸易试验区的成功获批带来商铺价值的大幅提升,以及租金上涨空间的实质性放大。技术上看,目前该股放量向上突破,可跟进。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司是以黄金为主导产业,集矿产资源勘探、开采和冶炼为一体的综合性矿业生产商;公司拥有的丰富的金、铜、锌等有色金属矿产资源,拥有一定的成本优势。近期国际黄金期货市场波动可能频繁,将增加其波动性机会,建议短线投资者积极关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                如意集团(000626)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             兰州黄河(000929)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                公司已形成农副产品经营、进出口贸易、生物制药三大产业,多元化经营战略已形成。受益09年国家拉动内需的政策,控股子公司贡献下利润大增,年报已预增13.5至14倍。走势上看,近期该股股价突破盘局后创新高,仍为慢牛,可参与。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             公司为小盘酿酒类区域龙头品种,在西北地区处于领先优势。通过多年发展,公司打造了黄河这一全国驰名品牌,形成了有较强影响力的区域品牌。近期该股稳步震荡上扬,技术形态趋于好转,建议逢低积极关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                国栋建设(600321)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 银鸽投资(600069)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                公司是西部最大的节能人造板生产企业,国栋地板为国家免检重点推荐产品,公司近期公告获得退税和购电优惠政策。其每股资本公积金高达3.39元,具备一定转送能力。二级市场上看,目前该股上升通道有加速上行之势,可参与。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     公司09年净利润预增50%以上,近年来主营业务维持平稳发展,且具备了较高的产能。同时,公司持续获得大订单,显示了其产品的竞争力,而且银鸽牌文化纸是国内文化用纸领先品牌。从技术形态上来看,近期形成上升通道,建议积极逢低关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     策略:节后市场以3000点为震荡中轴,当前不必过于悲现也不必过于乐观,自下而上选股个股为重要策略。建议关注业绩增长良好的消费类、区域或产经政策受益品种,以中线耐心持有的态度对待。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 策略:本周沪深A股震荡反弹,周线为放量阳线,预计下周初股指仍有继续冲高动作,操作上短线对于技术形态走好、量能配合较佳的品种进行短线关注,建议稳健投资者仍采取战略观望为佳。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

    国元证券         中国石化(600028)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             柳工(000528)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         天信投资

                伴随业绩大幅提升和作为股指期货融资融券套利重点标的物,该股有望得到主流资金挖掘青睐,安全性高,阶段性投资机会凸显,后市涨升潜力空间巨大。该股近期调整充分,低位有资金进场吸纳迹象,建议积极关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司为国内最大的土方机械生产商,不断拓展产品链取得不错的成果,当前装载机依然为公司最主要的收入来源。随着公司挖掘机和起重机产品线扩张与产能释放,预期今年装载机销量将保持小幅增长的势头,汽车起重机继续高速增长。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                中国北车(601299)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 广东榕泰(600589)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                现阶段我国已全面进入高铁建设时代,到2012年全国高铁的“四纵四横”将为公司带来跨越式发展的高成长期。公司是国内轨道交通装备电机、油田电机和风力发电电机最大的制造商。目前该股止跌企稳,立于中短期均线之上,后市仍可看高一线,建议中线标配。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         公司自主研发的高性能弹性复合材料项目和高性能绿色环保型IC封装项目与国外同类产品相比将具有较大的价格优势和本土化优势。去年前三季度公司业绩出现小幅度下滑,但公司订单已经呈现触底回升的态势,今年业绩出现增长值得期待。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                顺鑫农业(000860)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 万向钱潮(000559)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                公司是农业产业化国家重点龙头企业,以农产品加工为主体,物流配送为平台,打造集生产、加工、物流、销售为一体的大农业产业链。未来公司将分享顺义区城市建设快速发展的盛宴,地产业务将持续扩张,是未来利润的重要增长点。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司为国内最大的独立汽车系统零部件专业生产供应商之一,底盘业务拥有目前国内唯一的模块化底盘技术。公司作为汽车零部件的行业龙头,业绩增长值得期待,且今年公司产销实现开门红,一月整体产销同比增长188%。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                (国元证券 姜绍平)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                     策略:受宏观经济政策的不确定性,虎年伊始,股市就受压调整,但是随着股指期货、融资融券推出在即,节后按耐多时的虎头行情必将启动。在当前的市场背景下,操作上可对惠农板块适当关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 策略:技术上看短线面临半年线附近压力,股指可能会有震荡,但市场仍将延续反弹格局。在经济复苏的背景下,一些公司业绩将明显好转,高增长值得期待,关注一些逐步从底部开始走强的品种。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

    海富精选         巨化股份(600160)、小商品城(600415)、豫园商城(600655)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     三维通信(002115)、星湖科技(600866)、凌钢股份(600231)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             招商成长

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                点评:海富精选(162301)的选股思路重点关注得益于产能利用率提高而存在涨价预期的中游以及存在相对供给瓶颈的部分上游行业;国家经济转型政策扶持的新兴行业以及受益于消费升级和农村消费而具备持续增长力的消费领域。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     点评:招商成长 (161706)的选股思路是将较多的运用自下而上的方法,适当增持一些能明显受益于经济复苏和通货膨胀上升的个股,主要是考虑当前我国经济的快速复苏所带来的强周期性个股业绩的强弹性因素。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                就重仓股来说,巨化股份主导产品的制冷剂价格持续大幅飙升,已经超过08年最高市场价。与此同时,公司控股子公司的浙恒电子材料公司的内首家年产6000吨电子级高纯氢氟酸的生产线前景也不错,故公司一季度业绩相对乐观,可跟踪。小商品城的优势在于两点,一是租金的提升预期强烈,二是三期二阶段的商辅招租有望给公司带来新的利润增长点,目前估值略低估,可跟踪。而豫园商城的优势则在于股权的重估以及控股股东的资本运作能力,公司持有券商股权,受益于融资融券业务的推出,与此同时,上海世博会也会带来股价催化剂,可积极跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     就其重仓股来说,三维通信公司公告称以3069万元收购广州逸信50.5%的股权,加速了在网络优化服务领域的发展。而且,公司在网络优化产品领域已经有较强竞争力,成长空间乐观,可跟踪。星湖科技主导产品的呈味核苷酸和苏氨酸产能、质量均居国内第一。呈味核苷酸价格上涨,驱动公司利润高速增长。苏氨酸全球市场增长很快,国内增速更高,估计2010年或超过5万吨。目前国内市场处于成长期,实际产能远低于理论值,短期价格将高位运行,可跟踪。而凌钢股份则由于公司拥有铁矿石资源,且未来该业务有进一步产能拓张的计划,成长空间相对乐观,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     策略:该基金认为2010年,对于宏观刺激政策退出抑或转向的忧虑日渐增加,在资产配置上加大了消费行业如医药、家电等的配置,同时,增持了部分产能利用率迅速提高的价格敏感性中游行业。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     策略:该基金认为支撑A股市场的基本面因素仍然较为强劲,一季度采取更加灵活的投资策略,保持中性仓位水平。同时,逐步减持了金融和地产行业,增持消费与服务行业、电子信息行业。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

    中海量化         星马汽车(600375)、东方电气(600875)、吉林敖东(000623)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     博瑞传播(600880)、恒瑞医药(600276)、泸州老窖(000568)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             长城回报

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                点评:中海量化(163906)的选股思路主要有两个,一是根据不断更新的经济运行数据进行量化行业配置,结合量化精选个股,谋求在上游、中游与下游之间的轮动机会。二是结合基金契约规定的大类资产配置模型进行积极的择时操作,跟随市场热点运行趋势,较好的把握市场所带来的各类机会。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             点评: 长城回报(162005)的选股思路较为清晰,主要关注两类,一是科技创新、低碳等对经济转型和结构调整有支持并对未来经济发展产生重大意义的行业是该基金选择成长股的的重点;二是经济发展过程中的支柱产业,比如说金融、地产等相关产业,有望分享经济高速增长的回报。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                就其重仓股来说,星马汽车:预计国内2-3年内搅拌车和散装水泥车行业发展趋势依然看好,其中,中西部地区的增速会更高。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 就其重仓股来说,博瑞传播的广告业务除报刊广告外还包含电视广告和户外广告。其中户外广告是业绩增长亮点。相对于当前股价,估值略偏低,有进一步回升的可能性,建议跟踪。而恒瑞医药的优点也较为突出,一是公司的仿制创新能力极强,二是公司新药储备乐观,未来的业绩增长点相对较多,因此,公司目前的估值仍有一定的回升趋势。而泸州老窖则在于公司产品结构调整相对乐观,高端产品的比重持续回升,未来的业绩增长前景乐观。与此同时,华西证券股权也增色不少。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                     据此,公司计划对销售渠道进行一定调整,加大对中西部市场的渗透和销售力度,未来现有业务稳定增长。与此同时,公司产品结构调整前景相对乐观,混凝土泵车具有技术壁垒高、单车价格高、盈利能力强等特点,未来有望成为公司新的利润增长点。而收购整合则有望为公司拓展新的成长空间,有突破的趋势,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                     策略:该基金积极观察大盘股的动向,谋求风格适时进行较为均衡的配置。重点增加了建筑建材、交通运输、机械、医药生物等行业的配置,重点减持了地产、有色配置,适度减持了采掘行业。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     策略:该基金认为,在经历09年大幅上涨的情况下,要谨慎看待市场,从经济结构调整的大背景下,寻找基本面优秀的公司,中长线布局,争取在控制风险的前提下努力改善基金的投资绩效。