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      2007 年 5 月 9 日
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    券商研究机构评级显示最具成长性品种追踪(截止日:2007年5月7日)
    2007年05月09日      来源:上海证券报      作者:
      券商研究机构评级显示最具成长性品种追踪(截止日:2007年5月7日)

      说明:

      1) “最具成长性”是资本市场关注的永久主题,我们试图筛选出A股中未来两年最具成长性的品种。我们以次年净利润同比增长率、两年复合增长率以及PE/G来进行筛选。同时我们已剔除了因微利、异常预测所引发的异常增长品种。考虑到研究报告的时滞问题,我们只提示近3个月有三篇以上报告的股票进行比较并予以提示。

      2) 成长性品种弹性较大,在牛市时往往涨幅远超大盘(本模版2006年初筛选的股票池在2006年度全年收益超过大盘70%以上),但一旦市场走熊往往跌幅也大于大盘。

      3) 在利用该模版进行筛选时,不应该只考虑成长性指标的大小,还应注意研究报告的时滞、各期上榜品种的调整变化状况等。这些信息上表并未考虑,使用时可结合朝阳永续的一致预期数据查询系统(CONSENSUS DATA)和上市公司盈利预测系统(GO- GOAL)进一步挖掘研究。

      (数据来源:上海朝阳永续一致预期www.go-goal.com)

    股票         股票         近3月             最新预            2007E             2年复合            2007年一致预期                     2008年一致预期                     股票         股票         近3月             最新预            2007E             2年复合            2007年一致预期                     2008年一致预期                

    代码         简称         预测数量         测时间            净利同比         增长率                                                                                     代码         简称         预测数量         测时间            净利同比         增长率                                                                                

                                                                                                         EPS             P/E     P/B     EPS             P/E     P/B                                                                                                            EPS             P/E     P/B     EPS             P/E     P/B

    600219        南山铝业     5                 3-28             603.09             201.57             0.959             18.396    6.12     1.193             14.781    4.33    600432        吉恩镍业     9                 4-12             115.97             64.34             2.175             26.225    8.65    2.581             22.108    6.22

    002064        华峰氨纶     11                 4-24             518.46             179.44             1.991             24.214    8.38     2.513             19.18     6.44    600685        广船国际     14                 4-27             114.03             62.48             1.242             25.297    8.17    1.528             20.575    5.85

    600150        沪东重机     9                 4-12             291.87             178.90             2.188             42.165    14.33    4.215             21.888    9.39    600801        华新水泥     17                 4-30             64.42             59.16             0.505             36.071    3.97    0.777             23.45     3.4

    000831        关铝股份     11                 4-25             690.75             165.37             1.058             13.535    3.66     0.921             15.551    2.96    600736        苏州高新     4                 4-10             64.01             58.94             0.463             25.859    2.91    0.715             16.727    2.48

    600740        山西焦化     7                 2-16             354.99             163.56             0.682             22.166    2.74     1.04             14.529    2.55    600087        南京水运     23                 4-23             91.31             58.18             0.466             27.743    3.7     0.637             20.279    3.13

    600459        贵研铂业     8                 4-27             409.29             162.51             1.936             25.269    6.67     2.585             18.927    5.22    600585        海螺水泥     23                 4-30             80.57             55.82             1.705             23.745    5.7     2.288             17.695    4.31

    600371        华冠科技     4                 2-13             410.10             147.79             0.598             24.218    8.03     0.719             20.118    7.59    000825        太钢不锈     20                 4-27             103.47             55.30             1.859             13.932    3.77    2.196             11.792    2.86

    600718        东软股份     16                 4-30             321.91             137.30             0.717             48.52     6.16     0.987             35.247    5.24    000616        亿城股份     12                 4-25             98.87             54.29             0.91             15.842    4.13    1.137             12.679    3.12

    000815        美利纸业     9                 4-10             247.79             134.43             0.549             29.831    2.89     0.843             19.439    2.52    000807        云铝股份     11                 4-24             134.36             53.72             0.838             18.799    8.88    0.847             18.614    10.12

    000046        泛海建设     3                 4-23             188.34             120.19             0.613             38.125    4.65     1.029             22.7     3.86    000157        中联重科     30                 4-30             81.50             49.42             1.132             24.171    6.68    1.427             19.175    5.04

    000572        海马股份     6                 4-11             278.88             117.46             0.746             26.379    4.71     0.93             21.151    4.04    002031        巨轮股份     5                 3-28             55.71             48.45             0.557             27.665    4.46    0.78             19.744    3.64

    000960        锡业股份     16                 4-24             213.51             115.75             1.204             22.499    6.8     1.708             15.869    5.61    000002        万科A         27                 4-30             53.54             48.42             0.707             25.578    4.39    1.016             17.793    3.52

    600888        新疆众和     11                 4-10             167.88             105.33             1.098             26.654    7.26     1.638             17.868    5.16    600636        三爱富        9                 4-27             101.79             48.10             0.701             20.201    4.82    0.765             18.524    3.82

    600586        金晶科技     7                 4-23             92.55             94.20             0.374             37.944    4.17     0.721             19.694    3.44    000933        神火股份     16                 4-18             58.47             47.65             1.24             18.596    5.14    1.687             13.663    3.73

    600104        上海汽车     28                 4-30             200.74             87.69             0.653             22.038    2.59     0.77             18.67     2.27    000001        S深发展A     25                 4-26             52.62             46.58             1.026             25.28     5.86    1.435             18.082    4.43

    600299        星新材料     20                 4-26             143.48             85.61             1.141             33.299    8.8     1.574             24.141    6.45    600000        浦发银行     35                 4-30             46.55             46.18             1.125             23.919    3.99    1.556             17.293    3.24

    600470        六国化工     14                 4-26             131.40             81.05             0.604             21.782    2.87     0.857             15.351    2.42    600015        华夏银行     21                 4-30             44.65             44.63             0.44             30.304    4.33    0.641             20.8     3.79

    600141        兴发集团     6                 4-23             105.61             80.25             0.411             27.543    2.72     0.651             17.382    2.35    600423        柳化股份     15                 4-19             59.05             43.80             0.824             20.837    3.71    1.075             15.97     3.01

    600325        华发股份     10                 4-30             130.52             78.28             1.039             24.061    4.12     1.431             17.467    3.34    600409        三友化工     4                 4-17             63.28             43.49             0.374             25.011    3.28    0.453             20.631    2.83

    600725        云维股份     3                 4-16             111.44             75.91             0.616             29.348    5.27     0.988             18.313    4.35    000878        云南铜业     8                 4-23             71.69             43.49             1.612             14.574    3.57    1.953             12.034    2.75

    000401        冀东水泥     17                 4-29             84.20             71.06             0.373             31.709    4.28     0.588             20.134    3.53    601001        大同煤业     11                 4-26             35.73             41.33             0.777             25.538    4.08    1.15             17.266    3.3

    600010        包钢股份     5                 3-8             118.65             70.06             0.316             24.303    3.02     0.426             18.072    2.58    000629        攀钢钢钒     7                 4-3             44.92             40.09             0.463             22.126    2.67    0.627             16.341    2.29

    000612        焦作万方     16                 4-17             142.53             65.56             1.418             14.808    5.82     1.56             13.458    4.06    600533        栖霞建设     15                 4-26             43.52             39.65             0.798             21.806    4.01    1.08             16.107    3.21

    000972        新中基        7                 4-11             89.64             64.72             0.79             30.774    3.62     1.141             21.307    3.09    600005        武钢股份     31                 4-27             57.68             39.61             0.783             14.014    3.06    0.957             11.463    2.42

    600282        南钢股份     4                 4-23             105.13             64.36             0.853             15.027    2.94     1.124             11.408    2.59    600001        邯郸钢铁     7                 3-26             43.82             38.43             0.459             17.206    1.77    0.605             13.047    1.56