随着行情趋近年底阶段，也随着行情进入阶段性的调整时期，市场中尤其以机构为主的投资者已经纷纷开始为2008年的行情作打算。着眼于来年行情当然首先要探寻2008年高增长的股票，只有如此，才能在抵御当前调整风险之余，又能在调整中伺机抓住明年牛股的机会。

　　股价要翻番最有效的促进因素当然是业绩的倍增，以此标准，深天健可以重点关注，这是该股被多家机构选中的主要原因。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                         公司上半年由于业绩不够好导致股价没有反映出公司真实投资价值，在年底及明后两年公司业绩将加速释放的情况下，给投资者提供了极佳买点。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                         公司储备项目的权益建筑面积为121万平米，保证了未来三年发展。其中94%在05年前取得，位于深圳和长沙，项目毛利率水平在45-55%之间，明显超过行业平均水平。目前公司价值存在严重低估。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                         公司改制企业资产划转方案正在拟定。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                         公司持有莱宝高科15.84%的股权，此部分股权投资能为公司带来12-14亿元的权益增值；此外，还拥有深圳水务投资有限公司30%的权益，该公司也计划上市，因此在未来的几年内，公司的股权收益有望增长。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS （元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      (元)
07年	08年	09年
联合证券	2007/10/25	增持	公司08年的利润来源甚丰。房地产主业方面除龙岗现代城近4万平米的尾盘外，长沙芙蓉盛世一期及深圳宝安中心区天健时尚空间都将进入结算期。投资收益方面，公司持有4000万股莱宝高科明年有2000万股可售。以目前莱宝市值测算，公司08年售出2000 万股，即可获得5.5亿元的投资收益。此外深盐二通道可结算的投资收益也将超过3000万元。	0.73	2.54	3.73	-----
国金证券	2007/10/23	买入	公司改制立项已经获得深圳国资委书面批复，并力争年底或最迟明年上半年完成。如果主辅分离成功，不但能够消除亏损业务对业绩的负面影响，还可集中于主业，提高竞争力。	0.70	1.50	2.38	37.50
天相投顾	2007/10/24	买入	公司目前拥有权益建筑面积约140万平米，即使不新增土地储备也可以满足公司未来3年开发的需要。按照公司目前项目的销售计划和销售进度，从07年底开始，在可预见的三年内，公司项目—龙岗天健现代城、长沙芙蓉盛世、阳光天健城和天健时尚空间等陆续进入结算回收期，未来业绩高增长态势初现。	0.77	1.57	----	54.95
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.733	1.87	3.055	46.23
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	30.69	12.03	7.36
风 险 提 示
（1）房地产行业调控政策可能对房价产生影响；（2）莱宝高科股权套现时的股价高低对投资收益构成影响；（3）主辅分离计划的推进进度。