中国中铁（601390）：增长预期明确的龙头企业

　　中国中铁是我国基建行业的绝对龙头企业，受益于我国基础设施建设的快速增长，未来必然在国内外一系列重大工程项目中拿到足够多的份额，保持其良好的业绩增长率。同时，公司背靠大集团向矿产资源、房地产等领域拓展的多元化经营战略，将为公司增添更多与更高的利润增长点。

　　作为一家处于朝阳行业且增长预期明确的公司，中国中铁在当前选股比较迷茫的态势下得到了诸多机构投资者高度的关注。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  (元)
08年	09年	10年
联合证券	2008/07/01	增持	至08年5月底公司新签合同1304.5亿元，同比增长77％，预计08年公司实际新签合同有可能大幅超过全年合同承揽计划。公司在铁路领域重新占据主导地位，在地铁领域的核心地位不可动摇，公司在铁路项目中标总额、京沪高铁开标总额、随后将开标的几个高铁项目等方面均占优势。公司房产业务发展迅猛、很多项目利润丰厚、抗风险能力强、综合优势突出；矿产资源项目今年步入收获期，“项目换资源”大型项目也进入到实质性运作阶段。估值已具较强吸引力，中线建仓机会来临。	0.22	0.31	0.39	-----
招商证券	2008/06/30	强烈推荐	公司前5月铁路市场占有率比去年同期有所提高，在京沪高铁项目上中标的金额略高于中国铁建。公司依然主导着我国城市轨道建设市场，占有我国城市轨道建设市场60％的市场份额，在我国公路建设的市场份额依然达到10％左右。内蒙金矿开始投产，芒来、小白杨煤矿去年开始投产，董事会最近决定将上述煤矿转入股份公司。公司股价未能反映出公司合理价值，战略性建仓机会已显现。	0.21	0.27	0.33	8.00
天相投顾	2008/06/30	增持	预计公司08年新签合同额至少为3,000亿元，根据公司06-08年新签合同额增长情况，08年、09年的营业收入增速在30%左右，增长预期相对明确。公司目前各占有两个煤矿51%的股权，大股东还有一座铁矿资源和一座镍矿资源，若得以充分开发，将为公司带来持久稳定的收入，成为公司未来潜在的利润增长点。公司是我国基建行业尤其是铁路建设行业的龙头企业，受益于基础设施建设的快速增长。	0.22	0.30	0.40	-----
中投证券	2008/06/25	强烈推荐	看好公司的三大理由：铁路基建投资市场空间未来2-3 年的稳定增加、公司管理效率的逐步提升、相关多元化战略的实施。随着公司估值的逐渐合理，战略性买入的机会已经显现。	0.25	0.35	0.47	7.50
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.225	0.308	0.398	7.75
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	23.38	17.08	13.22
风 险 提 示
（1）经济增长率的降低使新签合同额达不到预期；（2）原材料成本上升使综合毛利率提升幅度达不到预期。