中国国航（601111）：复苏带来新的增长潜力

　　虽然全球经济复苏低迷、通胀预期促使国际油价大涨、H1N1病毒传染影响使整个航空业目前处于低谷状态，但中国国航受到影响却是有限，一是作为行业龙头，国内航空业务的持续增长弥补了国际业务的低迷；二是国航早已防患于未然对一半的航空用油进行了套保，非但稳定了公司营运的成本，且还受益于国际油价的上涨带来了巨额公允价值损失的冲回，直接提升了公司的业绩。同时，下半年国际业务的逐渐复苏，以及明年上海世博会的召开，又给公司带来新的增长潜力。因此，被机构投资者列为行业配置的首选。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                         

                                                                            

                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值(元)
09年	10年	11年
中信证券	2009/06/30	买入	随着7-10月份大旺季到来，国内航空市场需求增速有望连创新高，国际需求增速有望止跌企稳。同时，国内裸票价格同比逐渐提升，国际裸票价格探底回升，公司毛利率也将提升，并有效转化为利润，中报和3季报业绩有望超预期。与“油价涨、航空股跌”的传统规律相反，由于国航持有大量燃油套保仓位，国际油价上涨将令其燃油套保浮亏大量转回，并大大超过购买燃油现货的成本增加。谨慎估算国航2季度将实现15-20亿元套保转回，增加利润。	0.23	0.23	----	9.00
申银万国	2009/06/29	增持	国航国际、国内航线均衡发展，在客运收入中分别占比54%和46%。在首都机场中占据50%左右的市场份额，在浦东机场内航外线中的市场份额高于上航和东航之和。由于同期基数较低，预计2009年5-10月份增速将高于行业平均水平，在20-25%左右。预计国内航油价格6月下旬还将涨价，但国航50%左右的用油已经进行套期保值，其公允价值将随着油价的上涨而大幅转回，预计二季度扣除实际赔付的净转回在20亿元以上。其燃油套保08年发生了63.6亿元的公允价值损失，09年也将随着油价的上涨而大幅转回。	0.44	0.24	----	-----
凯基证券	2009/06/30	增持	公司国内航线是唯一增长点，国际航线的好转预期将要到4Q以后。影响公司成本开支的航油在3Q将不会延续2Q的一路上升的情况，下半年不排除航油继续上调的可能性，但是空间不大，09年国内航油价格将在5,000元/吨以下，平均油价则为4,300-4,500元/吨左右，国航的持续低成本运行将继续维持较长一段时间。国航加大国内航线投放力度已经在2Q开始实施，2010年以后国际航线复苏将使国航，国内航空业龙头地位更加显现。	0.36	0.33	0.39	8.25
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.343	0.267	0.39	8.63
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	20.35	26.14	17.90
风 险 提 示
（1）航空有效终端需求严重不足；（2）国内外油价快速上涨；（3）H1N1给行业带来负面影响。