宜华木业（600978）：出口复苏主题带来新预期

　　“刺激投资保增长”的热潮正在告一段落，后期经济进一步复苏与增长的重点将落实在“促内需”和出口复苏上。随着外围经济开始进入复苏轨道，出口行情的否极泰来已经成为市场一个明确的预期。因此，行情整体的结构重心也正在因此发生转移，寻找出口复苏预期明确、正在进入新增长轨道的公司已经是目前市场的核心策略。在这种背景下，宜华木业得到了诸多机构投资者的高度关注和深度挖掘。机构深度研究和调研信息显示，该公司从二季度开始已经进入出口复苏促使业绩显著增长的时期，并且在经受2008年经济危机冲击形成“赢家通吃”中进一步扩大了市场份额，更主要的是，定向增发募集资金投入的产能在今年四季度达产，正好切入复苏中出口增长的旺季，将进一步提升公司的盈利水平。因此，该公司已被机构投资者纳入出口复苏投资主题的核心配置资产。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值(元)
09年	10年	11年
海通证券	2009/08/19	买入	4-5 月份经营逐渐好转，2 季度数据表现远远优于1 季度，单季收入已经转为正增长，环比上升了49.83%；净利润同比更是获得46.07%的增长，环比增长了45.33%。目前来看，公司3-4 季度订单向好，下半年相对乐观，2009 年全年业绩同比有较大增长。未来将在经济回暖出口回暖的带动下逐渐走出低谷。	0.28	0.41	0.46	10.25
光大证券	2009/08/19	买入	外部需求的恢复令公司二季度完全走出经济危机的冲击阴影，单二季度营业收入6.03亿元，创下了史上第二好的季度销售。出口退税率、原材料价格、汇兑损益等因素好转大幅提升公司的盈利能力。公司增发项目将破解产能瓶颈，保障未来两年高速增长。	0.32	0.43	0.54	9.60
中信证券	2009/08/19	增持	二季度主营收入环比增长50%，除美国市场开始复苏外，还有广东地区中小家具企业停产后订单向大企业转移的因素，目前公司订单已经趋于饱和，预计下半年公司出口继续好转，销售收入同比将增长30%以上。	0.28	0.35	0.39	7.80
申银万国	2009/08/19	增持	定向增法募投的家具项目进度均超过50%，部分超过70%甚至90%，预计今年四季度将陆续投产。公司的产品结构对于出口改善的弹性较大、与美国房地产回暖关联度高且目前估值水平在出口型公司中处于最低水平，为出口复苏主题自上而下可选的较好标的。	0.31	0.39	----	-----
兴业证券	2009/08/15	强烈推荐	近期美国房屋成交量、消费者信心指数等各项指标显著反弹，必然带动与之相关的家具消费量上升，从而拉动中国家具出口的反弹。而公司作为国内家具中出口规模、比重最大的上市公司，必将最大受益。公司定向增发项目将于09年四季度投产，如全部达产， 届时产能、收入规模均将实现翻番，预计年内产能释放不大，10年约可释放50%以上产能。08年四季度至今国家共上调出口退税率6个百分点，可提升09 年毛利率2-3个百分点，同时将刺激09-10年出口额分别增长5%和33%。	0.33	0.50	0.66	10.00
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.304	0.416	0.513	9.41
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	23.88	17.09	13.84
风 险 提 示
（1）国内外经济回落影响家具消费需求；（2）美国对于公司家具出口的反倾销尚未裁定；（3）有第二大股东可能减持的压力：（4）出口退税政策改变与人民币升值影响公司利润。