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      | 5版:大智慧大鳄猎物
    在大盘阵痛中寻找投资机会
    掀起三季报行情的盖头来
    电力股 理顺电价带来机会
    券商股 估值优势逐步显现
    华业地产(600240):二线地产股的焦点
    一周强势股排行榜
    高速公路 防御特色凸显价值
    2950点一线将有较强支撑
    一周概念板块相关数据一览表
    短线震荡不改趋势
    平稳过渡尚需时日
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    华业地产(600240):二线地产股的焦点
    2009年11月01日      来源:上海证券报      作者:
      无论是行业景气度,还是人民币升值主题,或者是着眼于明年行情的通胀主题,再抑或是促进内需的投资主题,地产股无疑是众矢之的。

      以上诸多因素的结合,使得选择潜力地产股的要素清晰来:一是,现售项目带来的业绩增长度;二是土地储备带来的资产重估价值和未来业绩的增长价值。因此,取得行业主题的平均收益重在一线地产股;若要取得行业主题的超额收益则重在二线地产股。

      以以上土地储备与业绩增长两项条件来考量,华业地产无疑是二线地产股的重点之一。因此,也被诸多机构投资者纳入行业配置的重点对象。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

    评级机构评级日期股票评级投资要点EPS预测(元)估值

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                (元)

    09年10年11年
    申银万国2009/10/26买入随着土地储备和资金规模的扩大,公司未来业绩的波动性将大幅减少;09年起公司发展将明显加速,体现在土地储备和业绩增速上:(1)09年公司通过收购新增北京土地储备71万平方米,总土地储备达到125万平方米,该项目增厚公司RNAV2.82元/股;(2)由于06、08年获取的土地将从09年开始集中进入结算期,09年新增项目北京玫瑰东方也将从2011年起贡献利润,公司未来两年利润增速达到50%以上。公司RNAV为6.92元/股,P/RNAV为1.25倍,低于行业平均水平。0.380.400.61--
    国信证券2009/10/26谨慎推荐从深圳迈向环渤海,已具备较强的全国扩张能力。公司突出的拿地能力表现在四个方面:一、大股东承诺将定位于获取土地储备,以平价注入上市公司;二、通过一级开发转化为二级开发获取土地储备;三、通过旧改、工业用地变更等方式获取土地储备;四、股权收购,低价获取土地储备。公司“玫瑰”系列高品质住宅声名显赫,分别获得深圳十大明星楼盘金牌尊贵豪宅、深圳十大金牌冠军楼盘、全国工商住宅产业年会“最佳住宅奖”、北京房地产“15年十大品牌住宅奖”等殊荣。公司计划定向增发募集资金约 20 亿元投入大连玫瑰东方等两个项目并补充流动资金,发行价不低于7.26 元/股,若能成功实施,将助力公司发展。0.230.430.6412.56
    安信证券2009/09/28买入-A公司目前有5个在建和拟建项目,总的权益可结算面积为134万平米,分布在深圳、北京、大连、长春等4个城市。公司项目除了大连玫瑰东方项目是通过招拍挂取得的外,其余均为大股东资产注入或收购其他公司得来,成本较低,平均楼面地价为2155元/平米,考虑到公司项目均位于一线或二线城市,2000出头的楼面地价具有较大的升值和盈利空间。公司拟向机构投资者非公开发行30,000万股,发行价不低于7.26元/股。预计募集资金20亿元投向大连玫瑰东方项目和北京通州自由小镇项目,有利于公司进一步做大做强做优主业、提升公司竞争力及持续盈利能力。0.270.430.5210.80
    业绩预测与估值的均值(元)0.293 0.420.5911.68
    目前股价的动态市盈率(倍)27.58 19.2413.69
    风 险 提 示
    (1)行业景气度下降的风险;(2)北京东方玫瑰项目售价低于预期的风险;(3)增发失败的风险。