宜华木业（600978）：随出口复苏开始扩产增收

　　外围经济在复苏，出口行业已普遍进入新的增长周期，宜华木业作为家具出口行业的龙头老大自然不会例外。

　　实际上，即使在去年的金融危机中，由于该公司一贯采取了长单协议锁定了三年的订单价格，使得公司毛利率丝毫未受影响。恰逢其时的是，在外围出口市场开始复苏的时候，公司募集资金的增产项目正好在今年年底投产，一方面确立了国内行业中优势地位；另一方面在复苏中的增产为公司后几年的业绩提升创造了有利条件。

　　在目前出口复苏主题正逐渐趋热的时候，该公司因此被机构投资者纳入投资主题中的配置重点。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	EPS预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  (元)
09年	10年	11年
华泰证券	2009/10/29	推荐	原材料价格的低位以及出口退税率的提高使得公司今年毛利率水平较高。去年签订的框架协议使公司订单在今年未受影响，而且预计外围经济的逐步复苏将会刺激公司下游需求的恢复。公司增发新建设的5个项目将会于今年底开始投产，使得司在未来2-3 年内的产能翻番，这是公司未来业绩的最大亮点，公司将继续在国内外通过拓展销售渠道来消化这部分产能。公司业绩良好且稳步增长，外围经济的复苏对公司形成利好，公司目前股价偏低。	0.30	0.36	0.45	--
中信证券	2009/10/29	增持	公司现行定价机制决定产品价格将保持稳定，公司募投项目已基本完工，元旦之前有望全部投产试运营，10完套欧式家具将全部用于出口，其它4个项目主要用于内销，公司家具总产能将达到110万套，可实现收入由当前的20亿元增加至47.8亿元左右。宜华集团承诺在2010年12月31日之后实施管理层股权激励，是提高公司经营效率的重要举措，有望给公司注入新的增长动力。	0.28	0.35	0.39	8.80
兴业证券	2009/10/28	强烈推荐	一方面美国宏观经济企稳回暖带动了家具消费量的上升，另一方面，旺季效应亦逐步显现。四季度在不考虑新项目贡献的情况下，收入保守预计约6亿，测算四季度EPS的安全边际约0.07元，存在超预期可能。2010年订单形势良好，增长值得期待。作为行业龙头，公司拥有自主品牌，竞争优势明显，盈利能力强，理应享受一定的估值溢价。当前估值水平存在明显“低估”现象，安全边际较高。	0.30	0.45	0.60	--
广发证券	2009/10/27	买入	全球经济回暖，美国消费市场和房地产市场复苏是大概率事件，公司新增产能生产线是丰富产品品种，与经销商有稳定的合作经验，在当地具有一定的品牌积累，国外订单谨慎乐观。考虑到今年四季度新产能投放，产能利用率在未来两年不断上升，预计公司2009-2011年主营业务收入分别增长25%、40%、30%。	0.33	0.41	0.55	10.25
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	0.303	0.393	0.498	9.53
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	24.55	18.93	14.94
风 险 提 示
（1）出口退税政策调整、反倾销税率加大的风险；（2）木材资源出口国提高税率等保护政策的风险；（3）美元贬值或人民币升值造成汇兑损失的风险。