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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    大单投注站·短线热门股
    证券通:研究显示一致预期大幅调高品种追踪
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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    2009年12月06日      来源:上海证券报      作者:

                公司房地产业务进入快速发展期,业绩增长稳定,近日转让高泰公司部分股权给中核建中,一方面标志着高泰核燃料锆管包鞘技术成熟,另一方面标志着中核总、嘉宝集团和高泰公司在利益和行动上将趋于统一。目前该股在上升通道过程中,可跟进。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     大连控股是以现代电子加工产业为基础、以房地产开发和金融投资为两翼、以能源开发和其他领域投资为价值增长点的大型控股公司。公司旗下拥有证券、信托、期货、商业银行、金融租赁等股权投资,是两市最正宗的金融控股集团,未来受益于金融行业的快速发展。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                伊力特(600197)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 申能股份(600642)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                公司是西部最大的白酒生产企业,伊力牌白酒系列产品在国内具有一定知名度,报表显示毛利率高达49.32%,盈利能力强。公司还涉足煤化工、电池碳酸锂等,主题投资机会丰富。技术上看,短线该股回调至10-20日均线一带企稳后,可参与。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         公司具有显著的垄断性优势,其携手中石化,中海油成立了上海石油天然气公司。目前该公司是集海上油气勘探、开发、建设、生产经营和管理为一体的高新技术企业,是上海唯一的天然气气源,公司利润增长前景可观。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                金山开发(600679)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                隧道股份(600820)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                公司是金山区国资委属下唯一上市公司,目前已成功转型房地产开发、并涉足物流运输业。受益于整个上海国资整合大局,包括在上海建立金融和航运中心的大背景下,公司基本面改善预期良好。目前该股中期上攻形态,10日均线企稳后,可择机吸纳。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             公司两大核心优势业务是城市轨道交通隧道和越江公路隧道,在国内市场同行业中具有较强的竞争优势。因世博会的缘故,公司2009年业务收入保持高增速。而在世博后,根据上海未来城市轨道交通及市政工程规划,公司业务拓展上仍有较大发展空间。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                作为市场中独特的综合性能源企业,当前市场给予公司的定价较低,而东海平湖油田新矿井的开采将会消除市场对公司资源枯竭的担心,发电、天然气价格的市场化改革也将成为公司股价的催化剂,预计公司2009-2011年分别实现每股收益0.69、0.81、0.96元。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            公司是投资、建设和经营管理电力项目及进行电力的生产和销售的大型发电公司,研究员预计公司2009-2011年每股收益至0.46元、0.53和0.6元,明年业绩仍将转好,并存在逐步资产整合预期,成长性较好。目前该股为机构重仓,近期仍有反弹动力,建议逢低关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                金晶科技(600586)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                申能股份(600642)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                受益于低碳经济和新能源的政策性利好,太阳能玻璃受益于光伏行业增长,公司拟非公开增发不超过1亿股,募集资金用于太阳能特种玻璃生产线,太阳能行业进入高速增长期和未来的产能扩张可成为未来几年公司业绩的释放的主要推动力。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             公司主要从事电力、石油天然气、燃煤销售等行业,其中在核能领域、风能、太阳能领域均有积极参与。公司持有上海石油天然气有限公司股权,持有上海天然气管网公司股权,具显著的垄断性优势。目前该股技术上仍具反弹动力,建议积极关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                首创股份(600008)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     五矿发展(600058)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                虽然现阶段,公司内生性增长价值已经反映在股价中,但水价上涨和外延式扩张将为公司带来超预期的业绩增长和较高的回报率。随着行业景气度的提高、低碳经济和环保政策的推出,及公司的资本运作,未来公司能够保持高速增长,维持买入评级。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         公司钢铁及冶金原材料物流服务在为公司的国内外贸易提供支持的同时,也得到业界的广泛认可,具有可观的增长潜力,而其多业务的组合分散了公司的经营风险。三季报显示,有多家基金机构增持进入,短期反弹动力仍然存在,建议关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                点评:海富优势(162306)的选股思路主要有两个,一是行业角度,关注私人部门投资的改善,继续坚持适度的通货膨胀预期和美元贬值预期,合理配置相关受益资产。同时将跟踪大型国企的兼并重组机会。二是个股角度,主要是仔细寻找业绩优良未来成长性持续的品种,以及具有独特盈利模式的个股并进行重点投资。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         点评:南方隆元(160115)的选股思路坚持以公司价值为基础,加强对行业和具体公司的研究分析,努力寻找行业龙头,呈现出典型的自上而下的选股思路特征。而且,该基金也认为可结合国家相关政策的变化,从产业政策的变化脉络中寻找受益的品种,这样可以控制投资风险和把握投资机会。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                就其重仓股来说,锦龙股份业务亮点主要在于持有东莞证券股权,而东莞证券在区域内拥有绝对的垄断优势,佣金率一直排在同行前列,因此,盈利能力也较强。随着下半年证券交投活跃,市场对东莞证券的盈利前景较为乐观。新中基由于食品饮料业务有望在通胀的预期下而出现产品价格上涨的趋势,与此同时,在加大新疆基础设施的过程中,公司也有望受益,短线机会尚可。长城开发的优势主要在于智能电表业务有望在智能电网建设力度提升的趋势下受益,未来走势相对乐观,可跟踪。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 就其重仓股来说,獐子岛的竞争优势较为突出,不仅在于拥有不可复制的养殖海域优势,而且在底播等技术方面也有着极佳优势,故公司产品一直备受市场欢迎。与此同时,随着居民收入的提升,消费升级的趋势较为清晰,海参等海产品的销售前景渐趋乐观,而且通胀的预期也使得公司的产品价格出现上涨的趋势,可跟踪。中国铁建的优势则在于公司的订单饱满,且随着工程深入,毛利率有望提升,故公司的业绩成长性相对乐观。顺鑫农业的优势也相对突出,主要是白酒、地产等业务成长性乐观。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                点评:中银增长(163803)的选股思路主要有两个,一是从经济复苏的角度。因为该基金认为经济增长必然会对强周期以及经济支柱产业产生积极的影响,比如说从大金融、资源类、零售和钢铁等行业。二是从稳定增长或者说下游需求相对稳定的角度,比如电力、军工、建材、运输和电气设备行业的龙头企业也有望获得相对乐观的估值溢价。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     点评: 华宝精选(162410)的选股思路是从行业角度选择那些处于景气旺盛行业的龙头企业,比如说家电、商业、汽车等内需消费向好数据频频公布的行业,他们的股价催化剂就是行业分析师将上调全年乃至2010年盈利预期,所以,有望带来结构性的投资机会。与此同时,对通胀预期强烈的资源股等品种也予以积极关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                就其重仓股来说,威海广泰作为我国最大的机场地面设备生产和供应商,中、高端的产品制造技术逐步成熟,成为国内唯一可以与国际厂商进行竞争的企业,且性价比优势明显。中信证券得益于我国证券市场交投总量的增长、投行业务市场容量的增长等因素,未来业绩增长的预期相对乐观。金地集团的地产业务发展趋势乐观,不仅在于全国的布局合理,而且还在于公司的土地储备及高端房产的发展思路符合地产业的趋势,业绩高成长前景较为乐观。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     就其重仓股来说,三花股份目前传统业务主要面临着冰箱、空调等下游产品旺销的影响,因此,公司有望摆脱去年金融海啸的业绩下滑阴影,故得到了新增资金的关注,近期明显有资金介入。同时考虑到公司高资本公积金等优势,可跟踪。而大秦铁路则在于两点,一是经济复苏对煤炭需求渐增,从而带来运力的增长;二是资产注入提升公司的路网效应以及协同效应,未来的业绩增长趋势乐观。长江电力的优势在于业绩的相对稳定,从而获得新的利润增长点以及新的估值溢价预期。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

    申银万国     嘉宝集团(600622)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          大连控股(600747)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 森洋投资
         策略:市场似乎在进行风格转换,以银行为主的大蓝筹启动,而主题品种短线退潮,由于跨年度布局,主题品种经过震荡后仍会走热,关注上海本地股及消费类股可能出现的中线行情,淡化短线波动。     策略:在即将召开中央经济工作会议的背景下,政府如何保持政策的连续性和稳定性值得关注,目前市场对下一步政策走向存在分歧,下周股指震荡或将加大,建议投资者关注受益通胀的行业和个股。
    证券通     申能股份(600642)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          粤电力A(000539)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    九鼎德盛
         策略:A 股有望延续业绩增长驱动下的震荡上行行情,在潜在机会方面,建议重点关注“调结构”受益主线下的四类行业。一是消费行业;二是住房与汽车板块;三是医疗与保险;四是新能源板块。     策略:本周末两市涨跌个股家属比达到399:1415,这种情况说明股指收阳主要来自于权重股的护盘,下周操作重点关注权重股能否成功转换或延续性,如果不能则要谨慎,操作上不建议重仓追高式介入。
    海富优势     锦龙股份(000712)、新中基(000972)和长城开发(000021)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     獐子岛(002069)、中国铁建(601186)和顺鑫农业(000860)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             南方隆元
         策略:该基金认为由于有积极的财政政策保驾护航,经济继续增长的确定性在不断提高,市场将呈现出相对谨慎乐观的风格特征。在资产配置上,重点配置了资源类资产,并提前布局并购重组资产。     策略:该基金认为长期来看,中国的成长期还没有结束,操作上把握在经济危机后和经济转型中经济成长的确定性机会,和在新形势下可能出现的投资机会,寻找中国经济新的增长模式与增长点。
    中银增长     威海广泰(002111)、中信证券(600030)、金地集团(600383)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  三花股份(002050)、大秦铁路(601006)、长江电力(600900)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 华宝精选
         策略:该基金认为流动性充裕状况并未有根本性改变,上市公司业绩增长趋势明确,未来证券市场的走势谨慎乐观,操作上主要增加了一部分具有进攻型特征的行业,如地产、煤炭和钢铁行业。     策略:该基金认为微观面企业盈利继续向好,有望支撑A股出现结构性机会。操作上适当增加投资组合的防御性,主要是增持医药股和以内需为主的行业,与此同时降低强周期性行业的投资比重。