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    2009年12月08日      来源:上海证券报      作者:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         虽然上周五大盘股上涨看起来是因为银行资本充足率不会上调至13%的传闻,但我们认为,相关板块的结构性低估,最终将以这样或那样的理由实现风格切换。受益于金融创新的中大市值行业蓝筹股,关注证券、保险、银行以及其他年内涨幅较小的蓝筹股等。结合资金面因素,特别关注市值稍小的二线蓝筹。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            鉴于对市场短、中期趋势继续向好的判断,建议投资者整体上采取逢低吸纳策略,在资产配置上加大对大盘蓝筹股的配置比例。由于上周五市场热点和风格切换非常快,中小盘股下跌幅度较大,未来得及调仓的投资者不要轻易在低价位杀跌,应当在其反弹过程中逐步减持进行仓位调整。大盘蓝筹股上周放量较大,本周有一个整理阶段,投资者不要轻易追涨。个股方面,本周重点关注金融、地产、石化、煤炭大盘蓝筹股,推荐中信证券、中国石化、中国太保、中国神华、大秦铁路。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                投资策略上,应重点把握“调结构”带来的经济增长转型与“业绩推动”下的投资机会:前者我们看好低碳经济概念和信息技术板块,其中低碳经济已经是我国经济增长转型的战略性方向,而具有高科技含量高、高内生增长性以及政策大力扶持的信息技术产业也将成为推动我国经济增长转型的重要力量;后者看好近期业绩有明显提升、但是股价反映有限的钢铁、海运、部分化工子行业。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         对于大类行业,目前处于估值优势的为金融、建筑建材、信息技术、传媒、能源,估值已经较高的行业为黑色金属、有色金属、基础化工;对于细分行业,目前估值优势较明显的行业为能源设备与服务、建筑、通信、平面媒体、银行、广告、小家电、餐饮、煤炭、航空机场、农副产品等,估值水平已经处于高位的行业是环保、农业、其他电器、化学原料、医疗器械与服务、供应链等;本周股票组合为中海油服、宏润建设、精工钢构、中材国际、武汉凡谷、中天科技、时代出版等。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             中央经济工作会议的基调当与政治局会议吻合,阶段性的影响可能是,改善了投资相关的行业需求和供给预期。关注下阶段产品价格上涨空间大的行业,包括钢铁、水泥、部分化工产品、航运等。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        本期短线宝组合围绕中央工作会议议题及受益涨价两大主线进行配置,个股有三友化工、云内动力、中泰化学、中国玻纤等。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         市场热点方面,银行板块的领涨拉开了蓝筹股上涨行情的序幕,权重板块纷纷启动,同时创业板、题材概念板块退潮,中小市值个股出现回落,市场重现“二八”特征。我们认为,在股指期货推出预期与补涨要求推动下,上周五市场已经成功进行了风格转换,未来蓝筹股引导的“二八”特征还有进一步深化过程,继续看好银行、保险、券商、煤炭等。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         总体来看,政策面依然保持宽松,宏观基本面也积极向好,同时盈利较好的大盘股将成为持续上涨的主动力。风格可能转换时期建议投资者调仓换股,总体方向是抓大放小。

         市场观点:短期调整,中期上涨:(1)着眼于未来三个月,宏观经济基本面、盈利都支持市场继续向好,政策面则是中性的,因此继续看好大盘。(2)短期内有一些利空因素会影响大盘上涨。(3)风格转换是一个过程,至于现在是不是已经在进行风格转换,还需要观察。(4)中小盘股涨幅太高,存在很大的回调压力。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             技术面上,上周五长下影线一方面反映了市场多空分歧严重下的激烈对决,另一方面也反映了资金从中小盘股流出后迅速流入大盘权重股的态势。但总体上看,考虑到3300点上方密集成交区沉重的抛盘压力,若成交量不能加以配合,股指或将出现冲高受阻回落走势,继续在原始大型上升通道内反复震荡。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         看好银行、保险、证券、地产、钢铁等权重板块以及建材、机械等板块,消费板块中我们相对看好白酒和零售。另外,哥本哈根气候会议如果有实质性结果可能也会给低碳概念带来短期刺激;近期重点推荐的个股包括招商银行、中国人寿、中信证券、金地集团、鞍钢股份、海螺水泥、三一重工、五粮液、大商股份。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         政策调整是影响当前市场走势的最大的不确定因素,在地产、银行、消费等行业政策明朗之前,当前市场走势也具有较大的不确定性。创业板的恶意炒作已经引起管理层重视,非理性恶炒有望得到遏制。本周有9只新股上市,中国重工分流资金或超百亿。同时美元指数在上周五大幅上涨引发黄金、有色等资源品价格大幅下跌,这不利于国内有色、黄金等股票表现。整体来看,本周市场面临一定的政策冲击和市场情绪影响,指数宽幅震荡概率较大。短期可适当关注化工、农业类股票,密切关注券商、银行、地产股价变动和行业政策变化。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    技术上观察,大盘做多势头仍在,主力在权重板块的全力出击势必引发股指快速上扬,而个股间的分化走势将再度出现。动力系统指标继续向好,暗示大盘仍将上攻。综合判断,本周大盘出现冲高震荡概率偏大。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         小盘股相对大盘股的强势从7月底至今已经持续了4个多月时间,小盘股估值相对大盘股溢价已经达到历史最高水平,未来市场风格逐步从小盘股转向大盘股将是大概率事件。近期政策基调明朗化以及11月份以来基金密集发行及建仓可能是市场风格重回大盘股的触发因素。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         (编辑 姚炯)

    国元证券看 平                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 兴业证券看 平                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         湘财证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             银河证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    齐鲁证券看 多

    本周经济工作会议结果将水落石出,由于上周市场修复性上涨已经反映了经济工作会议的乐观预期,因此如果没有超预期的事情发生,将不太可能走出超预期的上涨。本月中旬即将公布11月份经济数据,由于去年的低基数,出口数据将有较大好转,通胀也将开始显现。投资人需要关注通胀的显现程度是否超预期,一旦超预期则意味着来年货币政策调整的时间点可能会提前。此外,由于美元上周末的强劲反弹,大宗商品和股市本周震荡难免,会给A股上行带来一定压力。但总体来看,在其他要素没有发生变化情况下,即使股指有短期波动也无碍上行大局。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        受限于资金,风格切换中往往伴随着市场震荡。临近年终做业绩、资金结算压力,可能引发各方投资者兑现利润的冲动,A股市场资金面有一定压力,从而导致估值偏高的中小盘股甚至近期上涨的中大市值蓝筹股都遭到减持、套现压力。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             近期市场热点切换非常明显,金融、地产和石化等大盘股的走强为股指向上突破奠定了基础。本周沪指有望挑战前期3400点以上阻力,而深成指有望创出新高。本周沪指波动区间3250-3450点,市场热点为大盘蓝筹股。本周市场关注的焦点是政策动向以及境外股市、汇市和期市走势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     目前市场内部条件是估值处于合理区间、业绩快速提升,外部环境是中央经济工作会议召开下的宏观调控政策着力点的改变,以及哥本哈根会议带来的低碳经济新热潮。前期出于对政策面的担忧,市场呈现大幅震荡格局,我们认为调控政策保增长的基调不会改变,同时调结构有望成为下一阶段的重点。我们认为待宏观政策调控思路进一步明朗后,股指中枢震荡上行是大趋势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         在不考虑极端值情况下,A股市场整体市盈率PE(剔除负值)大致分布区间在[13-58]左右,均值为32。根据上周五收盘价,A股市盈率PE(剔除负值)为26.49,较前一周市盈率25.12上升了5.45%,但仍低于历史均值。通过与历史水平相比,A股估值处于合理区间,加上未来业绩增长预期,当前A股估值仍具有一定的吸引力。

         在金融股稳定基石下,投资人不妨抓住几条主线,第一,通胀主线,包括有色、煤炭、二线地产、农产品等。第二,业绩快速反弹主线,包括钢铁、化工等。第三,未来经济结构调整主线,也即低碳经济板块。

    光大证券看 空                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 东方证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         国海证券看 平                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             渤海证券 看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 德邦证券看 多

    宏观面上:我们仍然对宏观经济保持乐观预期,而中央经济工作会议强调调结构、促销费、完善消费政策、提高中低阶层收入、改善民生、保持投资适度合理增长等与我们预计的基本相同。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             目前大盘指数PE为26倍,全部A股PE为27倍,中小板PE为42倍,银行为15倍,以银行股为代表的权重股的估值“洼地”效应非常明显。在盈利成为市场主推动力的历史阶段,大盘蓝筹股市场表现更为优异;结合对A股市场估值结构以及对行业盈利的结构性分析,我们判断从目前开始至2010年二季度之前大盘股有望再度获取超额收益。目前来看,大盘权重股的相对估值水平以及相对回报率与市场整体水平相比均存在较大偏离,预计未来估值和上涨空间的偏离将会得到有效修正,“大象”带领指数继续向上是大概率事件。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 预计本周大盘将以震荡整理为主。从热点看,上周五银行等超级大盘蓝筹股的上涨仅是补涨,而非热点切换。首先,预计股指期货的推出需要等到明年下半年,短期缺乏进一步利好刺激,超级大盘股难以出现持续大涨;其次,相对2007年的“5·30”行情,银行(特别是小银行)及保险等大盘蓝筹在今年行情中均有不菲涨幅;技术上看,目前股指又切入了前两次巨量形成的解套密集区,大盘上升将面临层层叠叠的解套压力;从供求看,本周市场又将面临较大的IPO发行压力。值得注意的是,新股发行节奏出现加快迹象。扩容节奏的加快可能加大短期市场震荡幅度。但大盘震荡整理属于上升过程中的蓄势,且调整空间有限。                                                                                                                                                     上周市场涨幅明显,政治局会议有关“继续实施积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策”的表态缓解了市场对于政策的担忧,这成为市场重拾升势的关键。总体上,我们认为宏观经济持续复苏、上市公司业绩稳步回升和流动性依然充裕等积极因素,再辅以中央经济工作会议中的积极政策导向,将推动本周股指继续保持盘升趋势,但中国重工以及多只中小企业板公司发行引发的资金分流将加大市场震荡。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 从技术角度来看,市场经过前周大幅度下跌和上周大幅度上涨显示市场可能在关键技术点位出现一次洗盘,因此我们对原来可能进入中期调整的判断将有所调整。虽然从成交量看两市为上涨缩量,出现一定的背离,但是领涨的金融等权重行业却是放量大涨,所以市场很可能在大盘股引领下持续上涨。9月29日、11月2日和11月27日的低点基本处于同一上升轨道下轨,而恰恰在11月27日市场低点指数得到有效支撑,之后市场连续上涨后出现风格转换迹象。由此可见市场上行通道依然有效,能否成功转换市场风格还看本周走势,但我们偏向于市场风格可能转换成功,技术形态将持续上行通道。

         基本面上:(1)目前市场静态估值合理;(2)市场资金供给中期充足,短期有利空;(3)大盘股IPO节奏加快;(4)大小非解禁对市场压力不大;(5)银监会上调银行资本资本充足率会影响到明年银行的放贷能力,是偏空因素。(6)12月4日的走势尚不能说明已经在进行风格转换。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     建议重点关注估值较低以及受益于通胀的银行、保险等权重行业;其次可关注基本面不断改善的基础化工板块;最后,由于未来二、三年中央对于新疆地区平均每年新增投资有望达到800-1000亿元,区域内基建类上市公司依然存在较好机会。

    民生证券看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 东海证券看 平                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         中金公司 看 多                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            山西证券看 平                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    广发证券看 多

    上周大盘权重指标股出现了少有的集体启动,风格能否转换再次成为焦点。我们认为,看好经济才能看好市场,看好蓝筹才能看好指数。这种转换虽有可能反复,但方向是比较确定的。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 我们认为,大盘权重股持续走强条件尚不具备,市场大幅上涨可能性不大,风格转换难以一蹴而就,资金面压力和乐观的业绩预期将使得市场分歧加剧,促使市场进行震荡整理。资金面上看,市场急剧扩容使得本周市场面临较大的资金面压力,而临近岁末,许多资金由于结账需要可能逐步退出市场。因此,我们认为,在未来市场可能面临资金面压力情况下,结合目前基金较高的仓位配置,大盘权重股并不具备持续走强的条件,风格转换将是一个渐进过程。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        中央经济工作会议不会有太多超预期内容,但将带来政策基调的明朗化。配合宏观数据所反应的基本面趋势将为当前市场提供支持,短期风险可能来自海外市场。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                当前市场心态趋于谨慎,部分机构投资者开始看多不做多。各大券商的投资年会纷纷传出看好2010年市场的策略判断,言论基调开始一致。虽然2010年上半年经济增长变数不大,但下半年经济如何走,目前还无法给出较为明确的判断。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     上周大盘整体呈现先扬后抑走势,周五“二八”现象明显。目前中小盘品种被大幅炒高,固然有“泡沫”成份,但目前大盘权重股即刻上攻的充分条件并不充足。尤其在年底资金面并不宽松情况下,指望权重股大幅上扬并不现实。或者说,上周五权重股上扬只是一种风格转换的预演。而市场借深交所严厉监管创业板炒作以及某官员发表“股指期货很快将推出,应加快出台期货法”的信息,突然进行风格转换,能否成功,存疑!当然,如果权重板块确实有增量资金持续入场,出现某个龙头品种持续上扬,则基本可以认为转换成功。

         首先,业绩将取代资金成为市场主要驱动因素。2009年是政策刺激下的资金驱动市场,中小市值股票、题材股票成为首选,技术分析相对有效。但2010年随着货币政策微调、流动性高位回落,业绩将走向前台,这样靠业绩驱动的蓝筹机会将凸显,基本面分析将回归主流。其次,蓝筹板块估值优势巨大。2009年股市上涨,市场估值两极分化严重。但权重蓝筹涨幅不大,上证50指数涨幅较小。再次,蓝筹板块技术面压力较小。最后,股指期货预期的催化。创业板发行完成后,股指期货将是证券市场制度和体系建设的重点,市场将对此形成强烈预期。