山推股份（000680）：出口复苏带来恢复性增长

　　在我国经济步入复苏，在从复苏开始迈入扩张的过程中，不同行业的复苏周期有先后。投资与消费部门的行业因受到政策的刺激率先复苏，后期性行业尤其是受制于外围经济因出口影响的公司是滞后复苏。率先复苏的行业与公司业绩表现与行情表现已经在市场上有所表现，滞后复苏行业与公司的业绩表现正在随公司基本面的改善处于苏醒过程中。山推股份即是其中典型，虽然身处工程机械行业，但与其它受到“刺激投资”影响业绩和股价皆大涨的工程机械股所不同，山推以往有近一半的业务收入来自于推土机的出口，今年前3季业绩受到外需影响而下降。但无论是目前外需复苏的形势，还是具体营运数据均显示公司的出口业务在今年9月份已经出现新的拐点，四季度开始公司业绩已经出现恢复性增长。公司基本面的恢复也意味着长期滞涨的公司股票也有望逐渐恢复以往的活力。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

评级机构	评级日期	股票评级	投资要点	ＥＰＳ预测（元）	估值                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     （元）
０９年	１０年	１１年
东方证券	２００９／１１／２４	买入	公司配件业务高速增长，主要是为挖掘机配套的四轮一带，是国内三家最大的产商之一，供应三一、玉柴、柳工、山河、神钢等主机厂。目前挖掘机行业增长前景良好，全年有望实现１５－２０％的正增长，未来３－５年有望接近并超过装载机成为工程机械最大子行业。出口将是公司业绩增长的重要方面，公司出口主要到资源类国家：中东、非洲、南美洲、俄罗斯等。目前海外需求逐渐回暖，出口的主要是大马力推土机，毛利率高于内销产品。受出口增长拉动，四季度毛利率将明显改善。小松山推今年下半年以来推销售势头良好。收益总体稳定。	０．６３	０．７９	１．０１	１９．８０
中信建投	２００９／１０／２９	增持	在土石方机械中，推土机内销增速是最快的，但推土机对出口依赖较大。前三季度，公司推土机内销增速１３．２１％，快于挖掘机的１０．２７％、远快于装载机的－２３．４２％。９月份起公司推土机出口扭开始出现回升。	０．５０	０．６６	０．８１	１４．００
东莞证券	２００９／１０／２７	推荐	在出口持续低迷的情况下，公司凭借国内市场的优势仍然取得了较好的销售成绩，整体销量仅下降了８％。小松山推的挖掘机３季度销量实现了大幅增长，预计４季度小松山推仍有较好表现。海外市场转好的可能性在不断提高，综合考虑出口对公司业绩影响弹性较高，４季度出口业务好转将大幅提高公司业绩水平，	０．５９	０．８０	－－－－	－－－－－
兴业证券	２００９／１０／２８	推荐	公司业绩弹性与出口和投资收益相关（主要是小松山推），目前小松山推所处的挖掘机行业已经走出低谷，实现正增长，下游需求旺盛，所以其投资收益的逐渐回升已没有任何问题。出口方面，随着资源国去库存的基本完成，会对工程机械有一定的回补作用。	０．５１	０．７０	０．９７	－－－－－
业绩预测与估值的均值（元）	０．５５８	０．７３８	０．９３	１６．９０
目前股价的动态市盈率（倍）	２１．５０	１６．２６	１２．９０
风 险 提 示
（１）基建政策影响的内需与外围经济影响的出口变化对公司业绩形成直接影响；                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             （２）原材料价格变动影响公司利润率变化。