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      | 4版:大智慧机构股票池
    机构股票池·中线成长股
    震荡不改中期向上 板块轮动转向周期性行业
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    旅游股 元旦小长假吹响全面复苏号角
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    “中大期货杯”期股组合投资锦标赛即将开赛
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    机构股票池·中线成长股
    2010年01月10日      来源:上海证券报      作者:

                     电瓷业务增长稳定,产品主要用于电网、高铁等,国内电网改造及高速铁路建设需求为其成长性提供保障。公司拟定向增发4600万股,募资用于收购上游完善产业链。其空气净化设备业务也受益于甲流防治主题。该股中期向上,短线震荡可吸纳。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             公司资本实力雄厚,营业部数量位居行业前列,产业链完整,积极布局直投、产业基金、基金、期货,具备较好的长期成长性。公司综合实力已稳居行业前列,尤其是在资本实力、创新业务实力上远远超越其他券商。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                长电科技(600584)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         云维股份(600725)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     公司是国内半导体封装第一大生产基地,技术优势明显,以电子元器件行业复苏为背景,其业绩弹性较佳,并涉物联网主题,三季报显示社保基金已介入。该股中期上升通道平稳向上,可在短调通道中下轨过程中择机吸纳。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司地处煤资源、水资源丰富的云南省曲靖市,目前拥有煤焦化、煤气化、煤电石化三条煤化工产业链,还持有曲靖大为焦化和云南大为制焦两家子公司,是我国规模较大、产业链较完整的煤化工企业,在产业链一体化及其深加工和产品附加值综合利用方面具有优势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                益民商业(600824)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         上风高科(000967)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     公司以特色商业连锁为主,旗下包括天宝龙凤、古今内衣、新光数码等成为稳定利润来源。上海世博商机将给公司带来业绩的增长。在国资整合背景下,其背靠卢湾区国资委,未来也有资入注入预期。该股中期通道向上,可在均线附近吸纳。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            公司是全国第一家以风机为主导产业的上市公司,绝大部分产品是替代国外进口的高新技术产品,国内市场占有率达35%以上。同时公司目前已重点发展以地铁隧道用风机为代表重型风机,随着4万亿投资的快速发展,公司将面临重大机遇。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     公司是目前综合实力较强的综合型、创新类大型券商,其公告2009年度归属母公司净利润同比增长80%以上。今年我国经济形势良好,股市处于快速发展阶段,公司业务有望稳健发展。今年公司业绩值得期待。该股自上市后调整就非常充分,当前有走强趋势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        近年来主营业务维持平稳发展,同时也获得了大额订单,显示了其产品的竞争力。近年来,公司在巩固主业的基础上,还加强了资本运作力度。技术上看,从预期题材和公司前景看,投资者可多加关注该股,把握波动性机会。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                中海发展(600026)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         华神集团(000790)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     公司是以油运、煤运为核心业务的远东地区最大航运公司之一,宏观经济预期继续增长将带来电力、钢铁等行业需求的上升,煤炭需求量将稳健增长,而干散货运输市场随经济回暖也将回升,公司业绩低谷已过去。该股处于底部区域,安全边际高。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 公司现已形成中西成药、生物制药、兽药及兽用生物疫苗、现代钢构四大产业格局。中长期发展目标——把华神打造成国内知名的以生物工程技术为特色的健康医药产业集团。二级市场上看,近期盘口明显有大单活跃,建议积极波段关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                广电运通(002152)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         华北高速(000916)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                     公司是唯一国内享有品牌优势的ATM 生产企业,国内ATM远没有饱和,且农村ATM市场广阔。近日公司收到中国银行2亿元人民币订单使公司业绩增长更明确。当前股价整体上涨幅不大,在创反弹新高回调时值得低吸。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         公司主营京津塘高速公路,环渤海地区的交通规划以及加速对公路资产的扩建在一定程度上提升了公司的投资价值,业绩稳定的预期较为明朗。公路运输在京津冀综合运输体系中占有重要地位,加之公司持有现代投资股权,估值优势明显,可逢低积极关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                点评:工银价值(164801)的选股思路主要有两个,一是跟随产业政策,近年来A股市场的特点之一就是产业政策往往引导着市场热点,尤其是区域发展的相关产业扶持政策更是如此。二是追随估值合理,未来持续稳定增长的品种,其中医药、通信设备和食品饮料行业中的优质企业是该基金的最爱。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     点评:招商成长(161706)的选股思路根据行业景气的变化而积极进行仓位结构调整,故积极配置了这些行业的优势企业,获得了不菲的投资回报。与此同时,一方面也对消费与服务行业的优质品种也予以积极配置,另一方面也根据市场各阶段的特点,在行业和风格轮换过程中进行相机决策,及时调整投资组合。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                就其重仓股来说,棱光实业在近期动作频繁,公司在太阳能、风电叶片等方面拥有较强的优势,需要资金支持。此外,公司丰厚的短线投资收益,从而赋予其短线年报业绩增长的乐观预期题材。恒瑞医药在仿制药方面拥有极强的能力,有望为公司带来持续的丰富的后续新药储备,未来的可持续成长空间相对乐观。与此同时,公司主导产品应用在肿瘤症状疗效好,未来的成长空间乐观。上海家化则借助于技术平台优势,将极大地受益于居民财富的增长前景,操作上积极关注。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 就其重仓股来说,电广传媒目前的优势主要体现在两点,一是有线电视业务有望为公司带来稳定的现金流;二是创投业务近来出现了较佳的发展势头,极大提升了公司的内在价值,且公司还有进一步整合的题材预期,所以,该股目前内在估值略偏低,业绩一旦释放,公司的股价涨升动能将相对充沛。而成商集团的优势则在于管理效率提升,盈利能力随之同步回升,目前估值略低企。国药股份优势则在于集团公司的整合预期以及公司医药工业的成长空间较为乐观。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                点评:大成创新(160910)的选股思路较为清晰,一是根据未来经济增长点的判断,选择包括商业、食品饮料、医药在内的大消费行业;二是对强周期性品种也予以灵活机动的把握。因为经济复苏之后,这些强周期性个股的业绩弹性较大,会带来交易性机会。三是积极关注增长明确、估值合理的个股。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    点评: 华安宏利(160406)的选股思路主要有三个:一是根据政策扶持趋势寻找可能产生的投资机会,比如说新能源、LED节能减排等产业股。二是对经济复苏对产业拉动的变化路径,主要是资源股、地产股、水泥等品种。三是根据通胀变化的预期,在近期也加大了对资产重估动能充沛的品种配置比例。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                就其重仓股来说,平高电气的主营业务符合超高压、特高压电网建设的方向,故预计今后2-3年涉及高压开关设备采购额将达到650亿元左右,这些均为公司的发展提供了极佳的机遇,因此,未来的成长性将相对突出。而潞安环能目前的优势不仅仅在于产品价格上涨,而且还在于产能的扩张,如此就有望给公司带来业绩的稳定增长。目前市场对煤炭股的投资氛围也相对乐观,可跟踪。而泸州老窖的优势则在于高端白酒比例渐趋提升,盈利前景乐观,而且公司还拥有华西证券股权。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             就其重仓股来说,华泰股份目前拥有两块业务,一是造纸业务;二是化工业务,经营情况都不错。此外,公司还拥有年报业绩预增以及高含权的预期,可跟踪。而贵州茅台由于拥有独特的自然资源禀赋,因此,产品不可复制,故公司产品定价能力较强,可以根据居民收入增长的步伐而轻松调价。同时,公司产能持续拓展,故公司业绩成长性相对乐观,可跟踪。而中国神华则由于产业链优势较为突出,且产能持续拓展,可以分享行业景气,更何况,目前煤炭价格上涨氛围浓厚。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

    申银万国     创元科技(000551)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     海通证券(600837)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         森洋投资
         策略:政策调控风声渐紧,新股发行较快,众多利空导致震荡很大,中期调整格局中,建议关注基本面较确定的品种,如高压电网建设、电子元器件和物联网主题以及具有世博概念的上海本地股。     策略:虽然周五大盘股指先扬后抑收盘收复60日均线,但量能欠缺仍值得警惕,市场还有再次下跌可能,但在经济向好和年报预期下,建议投资者不必追涨杀跌,关注年报业绩良好,有高送配的股票。
    天信投资     招商证券(600999)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  银鸽投资(600069)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         九鼎德盛
         策略:在融资压力和货币政策可能收紧的预期下,股指震荡向下,大盘股成为做空的主要动能,但做空动能释放后,后市跌幅有限。可关注年报业绩超预期的券商股及经济复苏带来业绩改善个股。     策略:本周沪综指收出放量中阴线,预计下周市场仍将多空震荡,操作上关注历史股性活跃的中低价类品种,而估值优势明显的公路股票也可逢低配置,此外,下周关注的重要指标是市场量能。
    工银价值     棱光股份(600629)、恒瑞医药(600276)、上海家化(600315)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          电广传媒(000917)、成商集团(600828)、国药股份(600511)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 招商成长
         策略:该基金判断近期市场将呈现个股分化、大盘箱体震荡格局,未来将找出未来能带动中国经济进入新一轮增长的关键行业进行投资,另外,对安全边际高,能长期提供超额收益的公司可坚决持有。     策略:该基金认为支撑A股市场的基本面因素仍然强劲,宏观经济明显复苏趋势更加明显,基于此,该基金采取积极主动的投资策略,保持较高的股票仓位,重点配置金融、消费与服务行业的公司。
    大成创新     平高电气(600312)、潞安环能(601699)、泸州老窖(000568)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          华泰股份(600308)、贵州茅台(600519)、中国神华(601088)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        华安宏利
         策略:该基金认为目前环境下,市场出现大幅上涨或下跌的可能性均较小,在市场环境未出现重大变化之前,不会过多的采取仓位手段进行组合调整;在行业选择方面,看好大金融板块及消费等品种。     策略:该基金认为在经济复苏的过程中,企业盈利提升体现出从上游向中游不断传导的特征,而目前市场基本完成估值修复,在指数大涨后,将充分评估市场面临的风险,密切关注政策面的变化。